NCAA Tournament 2023: 3 “best bets” to make among Sweet 16 matchups
Shocker — the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament delivered once again this year with plenty of close games and exciting finishes.
I’m expecting more of the same this Thursday-Sunday!
At this point, each team is playing with a ton of confidence and looks quite sharp. While a few have reached the Sweet 16 without any major stress, the majority have had to claw their way to some difficult wins.
After diving into this slate of games, I found three spots that I feel confident about attacking. Keep reading for three locks that will help you build some momentum heading into the weekend.
3. Kansas State vs 7. Michigan State (-2)
Thursday, 6:30 ET
The only remaining representation of the Big Ten lies in the form of Tom Izzo’s Michigan State Spartans. They take on a suprise Kansas State team on Thursday night at Madison Square Garden.
The higher seed is favored for a multitude of reasons here, but at the top of that list is that one team has Mr. Izzo. The legendary coach is fully capable of securing his ninth Final Four appearance and taking Michigan State to Houston in this tournament. Right now, I think that is the most likely scenario in the East Region. The man knows how to win in March, and having him on the sideline is a big time advantage.
After shooting 41.5% from three-point land during Big Ten play, this group is due for some positive regression after shooting 2-16 (12.5%) from deep in a win over No. 2 seed Marquette. Securing that upset over a red hot team that had won ten in a row shows how legit Michigan State really is. Especially considering that their biggest strength in long range shooting was essentially negated.
Led by the balanced backcourt of Tyson Walker and AJ Hoggard, I’m confident in this group’s ability to get things going offensively with two guards who can create, and plenty of shooters spacing the floor. Defensively, State has been locked in over their last three games, surrendering an average of just 60 points per in that span.
Year one for Jerome Tang has been a dream season for Kansas State. However, this is where I expect that run to come to an end. Markquis Nowell has been nothing short of incredible all season long, but he’s been on another level in the NCAA Tournament. He made a big splash with a 27 point 9 assist performance in the second round over Kentucky, in addition to 17 points and 14 assists in the opening win against Montana State. The 5-8 dynamo is a total stud — don’t get me wrong — but I do think Izzo with this much prep time should be able to slow him down more effectively the two previous opponents.
Nowell has been very efficient in the tournament, shooting over 50% from the field in both games. However, I would be surprised to see that trend continue, as he hadn’t shot over 45% from the field in a game prior to March Madness since early January. He has turned the ball over nine times across these two wins though. Nowell is a special player with the ability to carry a team, but it’s a lot to ask of him to be magical in every single game. Michigan State and Izzo are well equipped to slow him down Thursday night, with plenty of prep time and plus defenders on the perimeter in Hoggard and Jaden Akins.
Tang needed Nowell, Keyontae Johnson, and Ismael Massoud to all drill difficult shots from long distance to pull off that win over Kentucky on Sunday. Trailing by four with under four to go, the Wildcats went on a 13-2 run. They closed the heck out our of that game, and it was one of the most exciting moments of the opening weekend. But the point is, it can be a sign of weakness to need that amazing late game shot making to reach this round, plus they were underdogs in that contest too as the better seed.
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Nowell had a field day exposing Oscar Tsheibwe in pick and roll situations, who has struggled defending all season long. Izzo’s defense just forced Big East Player of the Year Tyler Kolek into his worst game of the season (7 points, 6 turnovers), and outside of Nowell and Johnson, nobody else really scares me on Kansas State.
The Wildcats have a fun team and arguably the two best players on the floor, but I expect the full effort from Michigan State to be better than the individual excellence of K State. I’m confident in siding with the more experienced coach here to eke out a win here. Give me the lower-seeded Spartans on the small number.
The Pick: Michigan State -2