Can San Diego State break the NCAA Tournament 5-seed curse?

2010: Butler vs. Duke

One of the most remarkable things to happen in college basketball this century is that the Butler Bulldogs reached two consecutive national championship games. The first occurred in 2010 when the boys of Hinkle Fieldhouse burst onto the scene behind coaching wunderkind Brad Stevens and do-it-all forward Gordon Hayward.

Butler is perhaps the best analogy to San Diego State, in that they, too, were a mid-major team that played an extremely physical defensive style of basketball. Like San Diego State and their win over top-seeded Alabama, the Bulldogs beat 1-seed Syracuse in the Sweet Sixteen. The teams also have almost identical records (33-5 for Butler compared to 32-6 for SDSU).

The way that Butler played Duke should give San Diego State optimism that they can do the Bulldogs one better and pull the upset on UConn. Butler controlled the tempo, holding an explosive Duke offense to 29.4% from three and only 61 points for the game. If we weren’t living in the darkest timeline and Gordon Hayward’s half-court heave had gone in, it probably would have become the most famous basketball shot in history.

Boasting the third-best three-point defense in the country, the Aztecs will also hope to slow it down and make UConn one-dimensional, and if the game comes down to a buzzer-beater, San Diego State has to feel good about its chances after Lamont Butler finished Florida Atlantic with no time remaining.

The Blue Devils that year were extremely well-rounded, with current Duke head coach Jon Scheyer, Nolan Smith, and Kyle Singler on the perimeter, and two of the 5,841 Plumlees and Brian Zoubek protecting the rim. The Blue Devils were ranked sixth in the country in offensive rebounding, but Butler battled them to a draw on the boards, something San Diego State will need to try and duplicate against the voracious, #2-ranked offensive rebounders from Storrs.

One odd strand tying each of these 5-seeds together is that they all met a 1-seeded Duke team at some point during their runs. The Gators and Hoosiers both triumphed over the Blue Devils in the Sweet Sixteen and Butler of course lost to Duke in the title game. San Diego State didn’t have to worry about fellow 5-seed Duke, and oddly, Duke is the only 5-seed that UConn won’t meet in this tournament, as the Huskies went through St. Mary’s and Miami before clashing with the Aztecs. It feels safe to say that we’ll never see a team face three 5-seeds again.