The Atlantic 10 had arguably the wildest tournament a year ago. It not only saw all four top seeds lose in the quarterfinal round matchups, but it ended with the 6-seed Duquesne Dukes making its first NCAA Tournament appearance in over 40 years.
This year, we could be due for even more surprises from this 15-team field. The VCU Rams (25-6, 15-3) and George Mason Patriots (24-7, 15-3) are tied at the top of the standings, with the Rams being the 1 seed due to beating GMU in their lone regular season matchup.
While these two teams are the favorites, here’s a full preview of which teams and players to watch, along with some storylines and a prediction.
Favorite - VCU
The Rams have A-10 Player of the Year Max Shulga (15.5 ppg and 3.8 apg), along with a trio of other double-digit guards in Joseph Bamisile, Zeb Jackson, and Phillip Russell, who reportedly will be good to go after an ankle injury suffered in the last week of the season. With the top offense and defense in the A-10, VCU has to be viewed as the overall favorite in the conference.
Defensive darkhorses - George Mason, Dayton and Loyola-Chicago
There are two ways to pull off an upset. One is beating them in a defensive slugfest. George Mason’s defense is in the same tier as VCU’s led by senior guard Jared Phillips and big man Jaylen Haynes. Loyola-Chicago has one of the best interior defenders in the country in 6’10 sophomore Miles Rubin, while Dayton’s perimeter defense was good enough to beat VCU in the regular-season finale.
Offensive darkhorses - Saint Louis and Saint Joe’s
These two teams are similar in that they have a trio ranked in the top-15 in scoring numbers. Their issues have been both via a lack of defense and a lack of depth. Still, based on who these teams have, they can certainly win a couple of games this week.
Saint Louis Billikens
Gibson Jimerson - 18.3 ppg and 4.7 rpg (37% 3PT)
Robbie Avila - 17.4 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 4.0 apg
Isaiah Swope - 16.4 ppg and 4.4 apg
Saint Joe’’s Hawks
Xzayvier Brown - 17 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 4.6 apg
Erik Reynolds - 16.8 ppg and 2.8 apg
Rasheer Fleming - 15.5 ppg and 8.6 rpg
Key players to watch on other teams
Reed Bailey (Davidson) - 18.9 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 3.8 apg
Jackie Johnson (Fordham) - 18.6 ppg
Sebastian Thomas (Rhode Island) - 17.5 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 6.1 apg
Rahsool Diggins (UMass) - 16.9 ppg
Rafael Castro (GW) - 13.9 ppg and 9.3 rpg
Bracketology
Before the VCU vs Dayton game, it looked as if VCU was a good bet to make the NCAA Tournament as an at-large team, with the Flyers clearly needing the autobid. But last Friday's win changed things, with the Rams in more danger while Dayton has a sliver of hope. At this point, Dayton would likely need to make the title game to have any hope, while VCU needs to make the semis and avoid that quarterfinal loss to be on the right side of the bracket.
For teams such as Loyola, George Mason, Saint Joe’s and Saint Louis, it’s likely that a tournament win would get them an 11 seed in the NCAA Tournament, with the others likely in the 13 or lower seed range.
Predictions
1st Round
12) Davidson 76, 13) Richmond 64
10) Rhode Island 87, 15) Fordham 77
14) La Salle 67, 11) UMass 62
2nd Round
9) Duquesne 71, 8) St. Bonaventure 70
5) Saint Louis 80, 12) Davidson 71
7) GW 64, 10) Rhode Island 60
14) La Salle 74, 6) St. Joe’s 70
Quarterfinals
1) VCU 75, 9) Duquesne 61
5) Saint Louis 71, 4) Loyola Chicago 67
7) GW 59, 2) George Mason 57
3) Dayton 81, 14) La Salle 65
Semifinals
1) VCU 87, 5) Saint Louis 72
3) Dayton 76, 7) GW 64
Finals
3) Dayton 64, 1) VCU 60