Big Ten regular season play concluded on Sunday with Oregon’s 80-73 overtime win over Washington (which still doesn’t sound any less weird after almost a year of play). Tom Izzo’s Michigan State team was the outright regular season champions after posting a 17-3 record in Big Ten play. Behind the Spartans there’s a logjam: the teams that finished second through seventh all finished within two games of each other, with a three-way tie for fourth place being broken by tiebreakers.
Up next is the Big Ten tournament, where some teams will be fighting to improve their seeding while others are just hoping to do enough to get into the NCAA tournament. Indiana and Ohio State in particular need a good showing in the Big Ten tournament; both are on the bubble.
The final Big Ten standings are below:
1. Michigan State 26-3 (17-3)
2. Maryland 24-7 (14-6)
3. Michigan 22-9 (14-6)
4. UCLA 22-9 (14-6)
5. Wisconsin 23-8 (14-6)
6. Purdue 21-10 (14-6)
7. Illinois 20-11 (12-8)
8. Oregon 23-8 (12-8)
9. Indiana 19-12 (10-10)
10. Ohio State 17-14 (9-11)
11. Rutgers 15-16 (8-12)
12. Minnesota 15-16 (7-13)
13. Northwestern 16-15 (7-13)
14. Southern California 15-16 (7-13)
15. Iowa 16-15 (7-13)
16. Nebraska 17-14 (7-13)
17. Penn State 16-15 (6-14)
18. Washington 13-18 (4-16)
Only the top 15 teams will get to participate in the Big Ten tournament; Nebraska, Penn State and Washington will not be making the trip to Indiana. Ironically, Nebraska could still potentially get an NIT invite despite not making their own conference tournament, which kind of illustrates the new era of college basketball we’re in. All the tournament games will take place in Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana. The first game will tip off on Wednesday, March 12 with the championship being held on March 16 just hours before the NCAA Selection Show will be aired. Illinois is the defending Big Ten tournament champion, winning it as a two seed last year.
The 2025 TIAA Big Ten Men’s Basketball Tournament bracket is set!
— Big Ten Men's Basketball (@B1GMBBall) March 9, 2025
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Players To Watch:
Braden Smith (Junior guard, Purdue)
Smith has jumped from being good last year to great this year. He averages 8.8 assists per game and has the highest assist rate in the country according to KenPom. Smith has nine double-doubles from points and assists. While he’s generally been a pass first kind of player, his scoring ability has also become a bigger part of his game this season; his 16.3 points per game rank second on the team. He’s been a little careless with the ball recently (21 total turnovers in his last five games) but at his best is one of the elite playmakers in the country.
Dawson Garcia (Senior forward, Minnesota)
Garcia is a good player on a bad team. The senior forward is averaging 19.1 points and 7.5 rebounds a game; he also is making threes at a solid 36.2% rate. Garcia’s size and shooting ability make him a mismatch for a lot of teams. Minnesota’s chances of winning the Big Ten tournament are small but would be non-existent without him.
Dylan Harper (Freshman guard, Rutgers) and Ace Bailey (Freshman forward, Rutgers)
Pretty much all season you haven't seen one of these player mentioned without the other, so why stop now? Harper and Bailey respectively rank fifth and seventh in the Big Ten in points per game. Both are high level NBA prospects; most mock drafts have both of them being taken in the first three picks. Rutgers has not had the kind of season they'd hoped for at the beginning of the year, but Harper and Bailey make the Scarlet Knights worth watching as long as they’re still alive.
John Tonje (Senior guard, Wisconsin)
Tonje is in his sixth season of college basketball and is having the best year of his career by far. The Missouri transfer is averaging 18.9 points and 5.1 rebounds a game for the Badgers. Tinje is very adept at drawing fouls and makes almost 92% of his free throws once he gets to the line. Tonje is also among the conference leaders in usage and effective field goal percentage.
Teams to Watch:
The Favorite: Michigan State
Fanduel has Michigan State listed at +260 odds to win the Big Ten tournament, the best odds of any of the 15 teams participating. The Spartans are a favorite for good reason; they finished a solid three games ahead of the second place team in the conference. As usual, Michigan State has an elite defense (fifth best in the country according to KenPom) and does enough on offense to grind out wins in true Tom Izzo fashion. Their only real weaknesses are three-point shooting (30.2%, among the worst in the country) and games on the west coast (two of their three conference losses came on the road at UCLA and USC). Indianapolis is a long way from California, so the Spartans should be in good shape to make a deep tourney run.
Contenders: Purdue and Illinois
It might seem odd to pick two teams that have to play an additional game as contenders to win the title. Still, the Boilermakers and Fighting Illini are serious threats to get to the title game (although they both won’t, since they’re on the same side of the bracket). Purdue was the preseason pick to win the conference title; they were in contention for the regular season title before ending on a late season skid where they lost five of their last seven. It’s worth noting that four of the five losses were true road games; I’m betting they find the semi-home confines of Gainbridge Fieldhouse much more to their liking and regain their early season form.
Illinois is a similar team to Michigan State: they play tough defense, are solid on offense and struggle from long range. Somewhat interestingly, Illinois does a poor job at forcing turnovers despite the great defensive metrics. Illinois has their own star freshman; Lithuanian guard Kasparas Jakucionis averages 15.2 points, 5.6 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game.
Dark Horses: Indiana and Oregon
These two teams play each other in their first game, so one of them obviously won’t go anywhere. That being said, both teams come into the Big Ten tournament on winning streaks that could carry them to some postseason success.
Oregon has won its last seven games in a row to be comfortably in the NCAA tournament regardless of the outcome. The Ducks have shown they have the ability to hang with the top teams in the conference with wins against Maryland and Wisconsin. Also worth noting is their win over their first tournament opponent (Indiana) a week ago. Oregon is a well rounded team that does a lot of things well even if they’re not elite in any one category.
Indiana has also picked up their play at the end of the season. Mike Woodson announced he was stepping down as the head coach on February seventh; the Hoosiers then lost their game against Michigan the next day. Since then they’ve won five out of their last seven games and have wins over Purdue and Michigan State. Indiana is squarely on the bubble, usually listed as being one of the last four to eight teams being selected for the NCAA tournament. They will be playing for their postseason lives in Indianapolis.
Predictions:
First Round
#12 Minnesota over #13 Northwestern
#10 Ohio State over #15 Iowa
#11 Rutgers over #14 USC
Second Round
#8 Oregon over #9 Indiana
#5 Wisconsin over #12 Minnesota
#7 Illinois over #10 Ohio State
#6 Purdue over #11 Rutgers
Quarterfinals
#1 Michigan State over #8 Oregon
#5 Wisconsin over #4 UCLA
#7 Illinois over #2 Maryland
#6 Purdue over #3 Michigan
Semifinals
#1 Michigan State over #5 Wisconsin
#6 Purdue over #7 Illinois
Final
#6 Purdue over #1 Michigan State
Picking Purdue is a gamble based on their recent play, but I’m convinced that they find their earlier season form for the Big Ten tournament. The Boilermakers are one of the most complete teams in the conference and will be primed to make a deep run into March. Purdue is currently a four seed in most bracket projections, but could rise with a tournament championship.