The final four are set, and for the second time since tournament expansion in 1985, all four No. 1 seeds have reached the sport's biggest stage. Throughout the season, it became clear that there were some historically strong teams. The likes of which we haven't seen in a long time. It was also clear that we weren't talking about just one or two teams, but as many as five or six. That has come to pass, with Auburn, Duke, Houston, and Florida all making it to San Antonio.
With the tournament not resuming until Saturday, this week has become like the week before the Super Bowl, every angle of the remaining three games will be dissected every which way possible. We'll also see numerous articles about the unique backstories and journeys of players and coaches that have led them to this moment. All of this leads to the culmination of another season.
It doesn't particularly matter which teams make it to this point every year; there will always be no shortage of things to talk about with the teams involved. With this year's participants being as chalky as it could get and them being historically strong, there are some interesting avenues to take when talking about this year's event. One way to examine the remaining teams would be through the lens of new-age college basketball.
The major question that has been thrown around is whether super conferences and NIL have ruined any chance of Cinderellas making a tournament run moving forward. That may or may not be true; I'm not sure there's enough data yet to make a conclusion either way. Other storylines are worth looking at ahead of the ball tipping on Saturday. Heading into the final four, here are some storylines that might but get as much ink as others.
1. Old guard coaches vs. new blood coaches
If this year's final four were a movie, it would be called Final Four: Old Guard vs. New Blood. On the sidelines, at least, the four teams in San Antonio will feature two grizzled veterans, each taking on up-and-coming young coaches with a spot in the national championship on the line. The opening salvo will see Auburn's Bruce Pearl matching wits with an SEC foe, Todd Golden of the Florida Gators. The second semifinal sees Kelvin Sampson and Houston taking on Jon Scheyer's Duke Blue Devils.
Pearl has been around for a long time and has seen college basketball evolve. He is in his 21st season as a head man at the Division I level and, like the other three coaches, is seeking his first national title. He began his career at Milwaukee in the Horizon League. After four years of success, he took the head job at Tennessee, where he experienced much success and turmoil. After a sabbatical from coaching, he ended up at Auburn, where he has turned the Tigers into a national powerhouse.
Todd Golden is still green compared to Pearl when it comes to coaching chops. Golden is in his 6th year as a head man. He cut his teeth at San Francisco in the WCC, where he battled Gonzaga and Saint Mary's for conference supremacy. He was able to amass a 57-36 record in three seasons, including a 23-22 conference record, with 13 of his losses to Gonzaga and Saint Mary's. Florida was able to hit a home run when they plucked him from the West Coast. In just his third season in Gainesville, he has the Gators on the precipice of playing on championship Monday.
The second semifinal has Houston taking on Duke. Sampson has been around the block more than once, now coaching in his 32nd season. He began way back in 1987 at Washington State before making a name for himself at Oklahoma. After success with the Sooners, he moved on to Indiana, where his short tenure ended in controversy, forcing him to leave the college game. After a couple of stints as an NBA assistant, he returned to coach Houston in 2014. Since arriving, he's brought the Cougars to national heights they haven't seen in 40 years and has the school's first national title in sight.
Sampson's opponent, Jon Scheyer, was born the year Sampson took over at Washington State. He played at Duke under legendary coach Mike Krzyzewski. After a short professional career, Scheyer joined the Blue Devils' staff as an assistant. In 2022, he was picked to take over for a retiring Krzyzewski. Now in his third year, at the age of 37, has Duke in another final four and perhaps the favorites to cut down the nets.
2. Defense wins championships, but an elite offense certainly helps
We know the old sports adage that defense wins championships, while that is still true, this year in San Antonio, that adage should have an addendum that defense wins championships, but offense helps too. That's one of many things the four remaining teams have in common: an elite defense with an offense to match.
Auburn is 8th in the country in defensive efficiency, they are also in the top 10 in effective field goal percentage and two-point percentage defense, while giving up 69 points per game. Offensively, Auburn is just as stout, averaging nearly 84 points per game and doing it from all over the floor. There are only two teams (both of whom are joining the Tigers in San Antonio) better than Auburn in offensive efficiency. The Tigers shoot 36% from deep and are 33rd in the country in two-point shooting. The balanced Tigers’ attack has five players in double figures to lead the offense that goes hand-in-hand with that stifling defense.
The Florida Gators like to play fast and on offense and are active on defense, forcing over 11 turnovers per game, which leads to 14 points per game. That active defense is 10th in the country in defensive efficiency and is a top-6 team in three-point and effective field goal percentage defenses. If opponents try to score inside the arc against Florida, it is just as difficult as the Gators allow opponents to shoot just 46%. On the other end of the floor, Florida nets over 85 points per game thanks to arguably the best guard trio in the country, Walter Clayton, Jr., Will Richard, and Alijah Martin, who average 46 of those 85 points. Their offensive efficiency is 2nd in the country thanks to a 55% effective field goal percentage, a 35% three-point percentage, and a two-point percentage that is 29th best in the nation.
The nation’s No. 1 defense on KenPom is the Houston Cougars. A Cougars team that allows just 58 points per game is 2nd in the country in defensive effective field goal percentage, allowing 44%. That happens to be the same number that opponents shoot on two-point shots, which ranks 5th in that category. Their three-point defense is just as constricting, ranking 13th at 30%, as proof of what the defense looks like when they’re running on all cylinders, go watch the first half of their Elite 8 game against Tennessee.
While Houston doesn’t score as many points as the other teams in San Antonio, just 74 per game, their offense is an efficient one, ranking 10th in that category. The two big things that lead to that number are the fact that Houston is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country, leading to numerous second-chance opportunities for a team that shoots 39.7% from deep, which is third best in the country.
Of the teams in the Final Four, the Duke Blue Devils are the only ones that are in the top 5 in both offensive and defensive efficiencies.
Duke is the No. 1 team in offensive efficiency and throws in 82 points per game. Good luck trying to stop them when they have the ball. They don’t turn the ball over, committing just 9.4 per game, and shoot it well from everywhere. They’re 3rd in effective field goal percentage and in the top 10 in both inside and outside the arc. If they get to the line, they shoot 79% from the stripe, which is 12th best. So opponents have to pick their poison when trying to stop Duke, and on offense, opponents have to pick their poison when trying to score. Duke is the No. 1 team in the country in effective field goal percentage defense, and opponents shoot just 43% on two-point shots and 30% from behind the arc, and that’s why Duke allows just 62 points per game.
Defense may still win championships, but for this year at least, no matter who wins the title on Monday night, a nearly unstoppable offense will join a suffocating, championship-caliber defense.
3. Building a roster through the transfer portal vs. recruiting high schoolers
The transfer portal has become a huge subject of debate and now perhaps the fastest way to build a roster worthy of contending. But, is it making other methods of building a roster obsolete? Looking at the rotations of the Final Four participants, the answer to that question would be no.
Florida has five heavy into the portal to build the most important parts of their roster. Golden plays a 7-man rotation that includes four integral transfers. Even though he's spent a couple of seasons with the Gators, Walter Clayton, Jr. began his career at Iona. Both of his fellow starting guards are also transfers. Alijah Martin was a part of Florida Atlantic's final four in 2023, and Will Richard was originally a Belmont Bruin. Florida's frontcourt has a little more of a homegrown feel to it. Alex Condon, Thomas Haugh, and swingman Denzel Aberdeen were brought in the more traditional way. Rueben Chinyelu has blossomed under Golden in his first year in the program after transferring in from Washington State. In three short years, Golden has transformed the roster with high-impact transfers.
Auburn also has a rotation that goes seven deep, however, their rotation consists of just two high school recruits, one a senior, Dylan Caldwell, and the other a dynamic freshman who has made people take notice in this tournament, Tahaad Pettiford. That's because Pearl dipped into the junior college ranks for two of his more important players. Chad Baker-Mazara played one season at San Diego State before playing a year at Northwest Florida State College and eventually ending up at Auburn in 2023. Forward Chaney Johnson has spent his final two seasons with the Tigers after attending Alabama-Huntsville from 2020-23 and is now averaging over nine points per game.
The most well-known Tiger transfer is Johnni Broome, who spent two years at Morehead State and has now become a National Player of the Year contender. Guards Denver Jones and Miles Kelly have both fit in perfectly, improving the Auburn depth over the last couple of seasons. Jones was a star at Florida International for two years, and Kelly was at Georgia Tech the previous three years.
In terms of roster construction, Houston may be the most balanced when looking at transfers and recruits. The Cougars are a little deeper than Florida and Auburn, going eight deep. Their roster is led by five recruits and three transfers. Senior forwards Ja'Vier Francis and J'Wan Roberts are in rarified air, beginning and ending their college careers at the same school with no stops in between. Sophomores Terrance Arceneaux and Joseph Tugler were also recruited out of high school by Sampson. Emanuel Sharp is second on the team in scoring and shoots over 41% from deep, and the junior is the 5th recruit in the Cougars' rotation.
Sampson has also dipped into the portal in recent years, coming away with defensive stalwart Mylik Wilson, who began his career at Louisiana and then at Texas Tech. He's also struck gold with his point guard, Milos Uzan, who has fit in seamlessly coming over from Oklahoma this year. You could call Sampson Midas because Uzan is the second time he's had the magic touch in the portal after grabbing L.J. Çryer from Baylor two years ago. Cryer now has the chance to become the first player in history to win a national title with two schools, after winning one with the Bears in 2021.
If Florida is the most transfer-heavy team remaining, Duke is most certainly at the other end of the spectrum. Seven of the nine guys who played at least five minutes in their Elite Eight win over Alabama were high school recruits. Even more remarkably, the two transfers joined the program this season. Mason Gillis came over as a grad transfer from Purdue, and Sion James, who started 31 games, did the same after four years at Tulane. It's easier to recruit at the highest level when it says Duke on the front of the jersey. That method of building a roster has worked for decades in Durham, so why fix what isn't broken?
Duke’s 2022 recruiting class was the top-ranked class in the country, and Tyrese Proctor was one of five five-star recruits in the class according to 247Sports. Proctor was the No. 23 prospect in the country and the lowest-ranked of the five stars. Proctor is now the veteran leader in the rotation as a junior. Point guard Caleb Foster is a sophomore and was a member of the No. 2-ranked class in 2023, and is playing a key reserve role because of the class that Scheyer brought in for 2024.
The 2024 class was yet another No. 1 class that not only had five five-star recruits all ranked in the top 20 nationally, including the No. 1 player and likely top pick in the NBA draft, Cooper Flagg, it gave Duke five key rotational players. Centers Khaman Maluach and Patrick Ngongba II add rim protection and athleticism around the basket, averaging nine rebounds and two blocks per game. In addition to them and Flagg in the Blue Devils’ frontcourt, Kon Knueppel and Isaiah Evans are a couple of lengthy, athletic forwards who have made 143 three-pointers on the year. With the caveat that, yes, it is Duke and it can be an easy sell, the Blue Devils have shown that a team doesn’t have to do heavy work in the transfer portal to build an elite roster.