Taking down Goliath, a.k.a Duke, won’t be an easy task for the fourth-seeded Arizona Wildcats on Thursday evening in Newark. Having faced off against each other in late November, both teams are vastly different -- and much improved -- throughout the five-month college basketball season. While Duke got the best of Arizona in their last meeting, holding the Wildcats to just 55 points on their home court, Thursday’s matchup won’t come easy for the mighty Blue Devils.
The fourth-seeded Arizona Wildcats enter the Sweet 16 after handily beating Akron and holding off Oregon in the Round of 32. The Wildcats got down 19-4 early but shot 50% from three thanks to 29 points on 5-7 shooting from three from Caleb Love.
Meanwhile, No. 1 seed Duke hardly broke a sweat on the first weekend, racing past Mount St. Mary’s in the Round of 64 and overwhelming Baylor in the Round of 32 in Raleigh.
With that being said, here are three keys for an Arizona Wildcat victory over Duke with a trip to the Sweet 16 on the line.
Contain Cooper Flagg
There’s no question who will be the focal point for the Wildcats on defense. It’s future No. 1 overall pick Cooper Flagg. Flagg scored 14 points, seven rebounds, and five assists in Duke’s beatdown over Mount St. Mary’s. He notched 18 points, nine rebounds, and six assists versus Baylor. He did thi,s averaging under 30 MPG.
While it remains TBD who Arizona is going to put on Flagg, it’s likely a safe bet that Tobe Awaka will get the first assignment. Awaka is the highest-rated defender (by a wide margin) on Arizona’s roster, according to BartTorvik, and has the physicality, length and stubbornness to keep Flagg in check.
Flagg won’t go down quietly. He’s far too good of a player for that. But if Arizona can keep him to under 20 points and five boards, that would allow the Wildcats to keep pace with Duke on Thursday.
A sharp backcourt, both offensively and defensively
Arizona’s three-guard rotation of Jaden Bradley, Caleb Love and KJ Lewis is mesmerizing. They have grown together defensively throughout the five-month season and certainly pack a punch on the offensive end of the floor, too.
But If Arizona wants to hang with Duke, the three-guard backcourt must be sharp on Thursday. You take the good withthe bad with Caleb Love, who sometimes takes some ill-advised shots. That can’t happen against a team as good as Duke, especially with Sion James defending the backcourt.
Duke’s Tyrese Proctor is feeling it from deep, shooting 13/16 from deep in the NCAA Tournament after a 6/14 outing versus Louisville in the ACC Championship game. The Wildcats’ backcourt must find ways to stay on him, even if it means giving up a bit of space on help-side defense.
Speed up the youthful Blue Devils
If there’s one weakness for Duke, it’s that they are young. And Arizona is old, at least reasonably older than the Blue Devils, that is.
Arizona’s high-octane offense likes to get out and run. 33.6% of their FGA come in transition, according to Hoop Math. The Wildcats boast a 64.6 eFG% in transition.
But Duke has excelled at limiting transition opportunities for their opponents. Only 12.3% of their opponent's total FGA has come in transition. That places it as the sixth-lowest percentage in the country, according to Hoop Math.
In high-pressure situations, sometimes all it takes is experience to slow down and control the pace. If Arizona can get out and run in transition and speed the Blue Devils up, there’s a real shot at an upset on Thursday night.