Arkansas spent most of year one of the John Calipari era on the NCAA Tournament bubble and was projected to miss the NCAA Tournament at several points during the season. But the Razorbacks have been playing some stellar basketball as of late, picking up some solid wins in the later parts of SEC play, and after an upset win over 2-seeded St. John's in the round of 32, the Razorbacks find themselves back in the Sweet 16.
However, a tough task awaits them as they face off with 3-seeded Texas Tech, who is looking to reach the Elite Eight for the first time since 2019, a year that saw them reach the National Championship Game. Led by JT Toppin, the Red Raiders have four players averaging double figures and have one of the most efficient offenses in the country.
This Sweet 16 tilt will mark the 80th matchup between these two schools, with the Razorbacks currently having a 39-40 mark in games against Texas Tech. These two teams last played one another four years ago in the second round of the 2021 NCAA Tournament, with the Razorbacks prevailing 68-66 over the Red Raiders. There's plenty on the line for Arkansas in this game. How can they keep their surprise run going and what do they need to do to slow down the Red Raiders?
Disrupt Texas Tech's Offense
Texas Tech not only has the most efficient offense in the Big 12, they also have the fifth-most efficient offense in the country, and are matchup nightmare for any team. Preventing the Red Raiders from finding a rhythm on offense will be crucial for Arkansas' chances of winning this one.
The Red Raiders take care of the ball well, and have one of the fewest turnovers per game marks in the country, averaging under 10 turnovers per game. The Razorbacks will need to force plenty of turnovers and keep the Red Raider offense out of sync from the opening tip, and capitalize on scoring opportunities off turnovers.
Efficiency from the 3-point line
Arkansas' 3-point shooting this year has been one of their biggest flaws, as they have shot just 32.4% as a team from beyond the three point line this season. In their round of 32 win over St. John's, they shot 2-19 from beyond the arc, and their 46 points in the paint proved to be the difference maker instead. However, a 2-19 mark from beyond the arc won't be enough to knock off a team like Texas Tech.
Arkansas has had several games where they were very efficient from beyond the arc, and it showed in the results. The Razorbacks shot 40% or better from beyond the arc in their wins over Kentucky, Texas, and Mississippi State this year, each of which were crucial in ultimately landing the Razorbacks on the right side of the tournament bubble. If the Razorbacks can shoot at least 40% from beyond the arc versus Texas Tech, they'll have a real chance at winning.
Win the Rebound battle
The Razorbacks have had some struggles with rebounding this year, and in each of their NCAA Tournament wins, they did not win the rebound battle. They will be getting a bit of a boost as forward (and leading scorer) Adou Theiro is expected to play for the first time since suffering a knee injury in February.
Arkansas has just a +0.5 rebounding margin, whereas Texas Tech has a +4.4 rebounding margin. It will be crucial for the Razorbacks to be competitive on the boards and create plenty of second chance opportunities on offense, while also limiting second chance opportunities on the defensive end. If the Red Raiders are to win the rebounding battle like some trends suggest, it will become exponentially tougher for Arkansas to pull out a win in this matchup.
But if the Razorbacks can keep up with the Red Raiders in the rebounding department, along with playing stout defense and efficient offensive play, they have a real shot at picking up a surprise win in this one.