After falling to St. John's in deflating fashion in the Big East Championship, the Creighton Blue Jays find themselves as the nine seed in the South Region. Creighton sits in the same region as Auburn and would likely play them in the next round, but they have to take down the Louisville Cardinals first to get there. Louisville has had an outstanding first season under Pat Kelsey after a few disappointing seasons, coming in with a 27-7 record on the year.
This will be the first time these two teams have met since 1999, when it was also the first round of that NCAA Tournament. Creighton won that matchup in a great game that ended with a 62-58 final.
In what was considered a weak year for the ACC, the Cardinals have a tough task against the Blue Jays. But how can Creighton begin another Tournament run? And what do they need to look out for against Louisville?
This is effectively a road game
It is up to you whether you want to criticize the NCAA Tournament for putting Louisville in the South Region. These first games will be played in the Rupp Arena, which is the home of the University of Kentucky's basketball games.
On the one hand, Louisville fans are forced to hand over ticket sale money to the home of their arch-rival, but that also turns this into a Cardinals home game. While Creighton fans travel well, the crowd will mostly have Louisville fans in there.
One thing to note as well, Creighton is only 6-5 on the road, but 15-2 at home on the season. Either Blue Jay fans will come through in big enough numbers to even the score enough, or Creighton will need to find a way to win a road game in this "neutral site" matchup.
Ryan Kalkbrenner will need to be a star in this game
Steven Ashworth has stepped up this season to become a college basketball star this season, and Jamiya Neal has been outstanding. But when it comes down to tournament play, the big men usually have to show out, or they go home.
Ryan Kalkbrenner is having the best year of his career, in big part because they have needed it out of him. The Blue Jays lost a huge piece offensively early in the year after star guard Pop Isaacs was ruled out for the year due to needing a second hip surgery.
Kalkbrenner has taken a big part of the offensive load in his absence though, his 19.4 points and 8.8 rebounds per game have been the reason why this team found themselves in this tournament in the first place. Defensively, he also averages 2.7 blocks per game and has been a general force around the rim as per his usual self.
But if he does not want this to be the final game of his college basketball career, there will need to be a classic Kalkbrenner game in downtown Lexington.
Creighton's main weakness here is the turnover margin
Protecting the ball is crucial, Creighton gives up 12.5 turnovers per game while Louisville forces 6.4 steals per game and an average of 12.9 turnovers forced per contest.
While these are not eye-popping numbers from Louisville, this is the main gap between these two teams, with Creighton having a -4.3 turnover margin.
A big reason why this is an issue is that loss of Isaacs earlier, Creighton has had to move around their guard play a lot without him, and Ashworth handles the ball as the lead point guard on just about every possession. For Louisville, Chucky Hepburn has had a great year with his 16.2 points and 5.8 assists per game, but with 2.5 steals per game, he is a menace on the defensive side of the ball.
This Louisville team has plenty of players who are athletic with solid wingspans who can get out in passing lanes and steal the ball. Creighton will have to be mindful when trying to find their shooters off ball, and taking care of the ball needs to be the priority.