Four months after their November 22nd meeting (a 69-55 Duke win in Tucson), number one seed Duke and fourth seeded Arizona will face off again in the Sweet Sixteen. The game is also a rematch for Duke fans against former arch-rival Caleb Love, who led the way with twenty-eight points for UNC in the Tar Heels' legendary upset victory over the Blue Devils in the 2022 Final Four.
Duke comes in fresh off of absolute thrashings last weekend, blowing out Mt. St. Mary's 93-49 and Baylor 89-66 to kick off their NCAA Tournament. Junior guard Tyrese Proctor took over the starring role of the weekend, shooting thirteen of sixteen from three over the pair of games. Now, Duke may be on the precipice of getting even better, as injured center Maliq Brown has been upgraded to questionable for this week.
Arizona started off strong as well, with a 93-65 win over Akron, but it got a lot tougher against old PAC-10 rival Oregon, who the Wildcats held off 87-83. That victory included a comeback from the Ducks' fourteen point first half lead, behind another memorable game from Love, who had twenty-nine points, nine rebounds and four assists. Center Tobe Awaka chipped in fourteen rebounds in the effort as well.
Duke has more clear paths to victory than Arizona does, but they will still need to hit a few keys.
Keep Caleb Love Under Control.. And Jaden Bradley Too
The top prevailing narrative is that Love is the game's ultimate wild card, and his history backs it up. In addition to the pair of aforementioned superstar performances in NCAA Tournament games, the 2024 All-American led the Wildcats to an 11-2 record in games where scored twenty or more points this season. Love also had a whopping twelve games this year in which he missed ten or more field goal attempts, and that type of inefficiency against the lockdown Duke defense would be a disaster.
Arizona's second leading scorer, Jaden Bradley, was the Wildcats' best player in the November meeting between these two teams. He also took on a starring role in the two impressive wins that Arizona recorded despite Love struggles this season (a February back-to-back over fellow Sweet Sixteen teams BYU and Texas Tech). His big game acumen is punctuated by last season's Sweet Sixteen loss to Clemson, when Bradley led the team with eighteen points off the bench.
Arizona is 0-7 this season when scoring seventy or less points in a game, and against Duke's high powered offense, the Wildcats will presumably have to get as high as eighty to have a chance. No one else on the roster possesses the high offensive ceilings of Love and Bradley. If Duke keeps Love close to his 16.8 ppg average, and Bradley isn't able to cover with a huge game of his own, then the math to victory becomes difficult to calculate.
Control The Boards
Arizona dominated the Big 12 on the glass, posting by far a conference best 7.5 per game rebounding margin. Awaka powered the effort, leading the league in offensive rebounding margin and barely finishing second on the defensive end (behind BYU's Keba Keita). But Awaka's backup, Henri Veesar and frontcourt partner Trey Townsend both bring in over 1.5 offensive rebounds per game. Plus, KJ Lewis is one of the best perimeter rebounders per minute in the country.
Duke was the top rebounding team in the ACC, which may be a bigger reflection on the fact that SMU was the only other team in the league that excelled on the boards, and Duke won that battle by a mere 42-41 in a blowout win. The Blue Devils sit outside of the top forty nationally in rebounding margin on both sides, the rare instance in the Duke stats where they aren't elite. If Arizona doesn't get the dynamite scoring performance they need from Love or Bradley, the Wildcats will need Awaka and Veesar to create a ton of extra possessions.
Fly The Flagg
The path to beating Duke for both Kansas and Clemson this season started with roughing up Naismith Award finalist and future number one NBA draft pick Cooper Flagg. Even Kentucky, who allowed Flagg to score, held him to just two assists in their early season win. It's no surprise that he generated just six total assists across the Blue Devils' three defeats, which were also games where the offense was held to seventy-two or less points. The moment Flagg brings the offense into its best, symphonic form, the game is likely over for Duke's opponent.
Arizona is limited on options, for positional sake they will likely give Townsend the first crack, and while he can certainly leave Flagg with a bruise or two, he's giving up three inches and a fair amount of foot speed. The assignment will likely be the most that the Wildcats have asked of their future first round pick freshman Carter Bryant. At 6'8" and strong, Bryant profiles as a quality option, but he has never had to take on someone like Flag