The 2025 version of the NCAA tournament may not have Cinderella stories or a plucky underdog making a run to the Final Four, but instead, we got one heck of a semi-final matchup: Houston vs Duke. Arguably the two best teams in the country this season (they're respectively ranked second and first according to KenPom), both teams are entering this matchup on fire.
Houston owns the longest winning streak in the country at 17 games; they’ve also won 30 out of their past 31, with their lone loss being a one-point overtime loss to a Texas Tech team that made the Elite Eight (and arguably should have made the Final Four). Houston is known for their suffocating defense, and for good reason; they have the number one defense in the country based on efficiency. Their offense may not be considered as dominant because of the team's overall slow pace of play, but it is very efficient in its own right.
Meanwhile, Duke enters equally as hot. They’ve won their last 15 straight and 31 of their last 32 games; their road loss to Clemson is their only blemish since November 2024. The Blue Devils now boast the most efficient offence in the country and a top-five defense to boot. While everyone loves a David-vs-Goliath story, matchups between teams this good are something to be celebrated as well.
Duke is a 4.5 point favorite over Houston as of the publishing of this article; they’re also the heavy favorite to win the national championship. Here are three keys to the game for Houston if the Cougars want to prevent that from happening.
Control the tempo
Houston and Duke both play at one of the slowest paces on defense in the country. This makes sense; both are dominant defenses that force opponents to use most of the shot clock to try and find an acceptable shot. However, there is a noticeable difference in the length of each team’s offensive possessions. Houston has one of the slowest paces on offense as well, ranking 347 out of 364 teams in average possession length. Just to be clear, slow doesn’t mean they’re a bad offense; the Cougars are very efficient with their offensive possessions. Houston just simply doesn’t take quick shots. On the other hand, Duke is more than willing to go quickly on offense; with an average possession length of 17.1 seconds, they rank in the top third in the country in pace of play on offense.
Houston needs to make sure the Duke offense gets slowed down enough to get their elite defense into place. Houston is an great offensive rebounding team (11th in the country) but may be forced to make a choice between going hard on the offensive glass or dropping a defender back after a shot to keep the Blue Devils from getting out and running. Duke has the more explosive of the two offences; Houston needs to make sure they don’t get the chance to ignite.
Rattle the Devils
Duke has looked borderline unstoppable for much of this season. They’ve won their four NCAA tournament games by an average margin of 26 points and have looked comfortable for almost every minute of game action in 2025. You wouldn’t know that so many of their critical pieces are freshman by watching them thus far in the tournament.
Still…many of Duke’s players ARE freshmen. They have a steadying hand in Tyrese Proctor, but this is still a young Duke team that will be playing on a stage the size they haven’t seen before. I’m by no means predicting they will wilt under the lights of San Antonio, but it’s not completely out of the question. Duke led UNC 52-28 in their ACC tournament game before watching the Heels roar all the way back to get within one. Some of that was probably complacency by Duke in the early stages of the comeback, but once it was clear the Heels were not going away the Blue Devils looked spooked for the first time in a long time. The Blue Devils committed multiple careless fouls and turned the ball over several times that aided the Heels comeback. Kon Knueppel had five turnovers in that game; had Jae’Lyn WIthers not committed a last second lane violation UNC might have completed the comeback instead of losing by three.
Of course, Cooper Flagg didn’t play in that game; maybe North Carolina doesn’t get close if he is. Still, if Houston is able to apply some actual game pressure on Duke - pressure that Duke largely hasn’t felt for most of the season - they could force the Blue Devils into some uncomfortable moments.
Be the more physical team
Kelvin Sampson’s teams are known for playing tough, hard-nosed defense. They’re good at being physical with opposing teams without getting called for a lot of fouls. A good example is the way they bullied Tennessee in their Elite Eight matchup; it’s all the more surprising because the Vols came into the game with a similar reputation. Houston may have finished the game with more fouls called on them, but it was clearly Tennessee that felt the effects of the physicality.
This somewhat ties in with the previous point; Houston players need to make sure Duke feels them there, particularly on the perimeter where the Blue Devils can be deadly. Ideally for Houston, the refs will have a light whistle in this game; the Cougars only get a bit over 16% of their scoring from the free throw line, so they don’t really look for whistles anyway. Duke will be the biggest team Houston has faced (and is the tallest in the country according to KenPom). It will be imperative that they continue their physical brand of play to throw Duke a bit off their game without being drawn into foul trouble by the taller Blue Devil players.