They say it's difficult to beat a team three times in a season. That will once again be put to the test Friday night in Indianapolis when No. 2 Tennessee takes on No. 3 Kentucky in the Sweet Sixteen. Three Wildcats won both meetings this season, winning by five in Knoxville and then by 11 at Rupp two weeks later. The Volunteers get one more shot to crack the code against Kentucky, this time with a trip to the regional final on the line.
Kentucky began its tournament by dismantling No. 14 Troy 76-57 and earned a trip to the Sweet Sixteen by knocking off No. 6 Illinois 84-75. The Wildcats, despite their struggles from the free throw line, shooting just 60% in the two games, have shot the ball better than their season average from behind the arc, 38%, making up for their deficiency at the line. Another thing they’ve done well is protect the basketball. On the year, the Wildcats commit 11 per game, but in the tournament, they have turned it over just 15 times in the two games.
Tennessee enters its third meeting with Kentucky after beating both Wofford and UCLA. The team that ranks third in the country in defensive efficiency flexed its muscle in that area in its two wins. They held Wofford to 13 points below their average, beating them 77-62. It was much of the same in their 67-58 win over a UCLA team that also averaged 75 points per game entering the tournament. If the Volunteers want a return trip to the Elite Eight and another shot at the school’s first trip to the Final Four, they will have to solve Kentucky, and in order to do that, some key things will have to happen.
1. Keep Kentucky off of the three-point line
The first big key to a win on Friday night will be to utilize their three-point defense, which is one of the best in the country. The third-ranked defense holds opponents to just 28% shooting from beyond the arc. They held UCLA to just 30%, but in the opening-round game, Wofford shot 42% on 26 attempts. If that happens against Kentucky, the Tennessee season likely ends. Kentucky shot 12-24 from three-point land in the two regular-season matchups. Not only will Tennessee need to improve on that dramatically, but it will also need to hold the Wildcats below their season average of 37%.
2. When taking three pointers, Tennessee needs to be selective
The second key to a Tennessee victory is another aspect of the three-point line in this game. This time, it concerns how the Volunteers handle their three-point shooting. The long ball isn’t a huge part of their offense, with 1/3 of their offense coming from that area of the floor. While Tennessee shoots it at a mediocre 34%, they need to be very selective about how they deploy their perimeter game in this final matchup with Kentucky. Entering the tournament, Tennessee put up 23 three-point attempts per game, and in their two tournament games, they have shot 42%, making 21 of their 50 attempts. Against Kentucky, they’ve struggled shooting the 3, and the volume of shots in their games was at opposite ends of the spectrum. In the game in Lexington, they shot just 3-18, and back at home, they hoisted up 45 three-pointers, making just 11. Keep an eye on how many three-pointers Tennessee lets fly; if it’s in the 23-25 range, that is likely good news for the orange and white.
3. Tennessee must take advantage of the second-chance opportunities they get
The last big key to Tennessee finally beating Kentucky will be their ability to take advantage of the second-chance opportunities they get. The Volunteers are one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the country, ranking 28th in offensive rebounding percentage. The problem for Rick Barnes’ team is that Kentucky is one of the best teams in the country at preventing offensive rebounds, ranking 27th in keeping opponents off the offensive glass. In their two regular-season meetings, offensive rebounds haven’t been an issue. Tennessee pulled down an average of 13 per game, but they have to do a better job taking advantage of those chances because in the 78-73 loss, Tennessee grabbed 18 of them.