For the seventh time this season, Missouri is set to take on a ranked opponent. When No. 4 Alabama and Missouri tip off Wednesday night, it will be the fifth game for the Tigers against a top-five-ranked team. Mizzou has been solid at home this season, with its only loss being to Texas A&M a couple of weeks ago. The Tigers look to continue their winning ways, but that might not be a simple task with an angry Alabama team coming to town. The Crimson Tide are looking to bounce back following a loss to rival Auburn in their last game.
It won’t be easy, but with how good Missouri has been at home, there’s a solid chance for the Tigers to pull off the upset. Here are three keys for Missouri to knock off another top-five opponent and extend its winning streak to three games.
1. Keep Alabama out of the paint
Alabama has been the best offense in the country nearly all season, and somehow, the Tide have kicked it up a notch in SEC play. One of the big reasons Alabama is so dangerous on offense is its ability to score in the paint. Since the start of SEC play, the Tide are averaging 40 points in the paint per game. That’s nearly half their SEC scoring average of 90.8 points per game. In their last game against Auburn, one of the best defensive teams in the conference, Alabama scored 40 points in the paint, right at its average.
The Tide scores in the paint in multiple ways. Since they are so good from three defenses can’t leave anyone open from deep, which spreads the floor and opens up driving lanes. Alabama also does a great job of rolling to the rim off screens. In their last game, the Tide attempted 30 layups and five dunks. Getting to the paint is a crucial part of their offense, so it’s something, that if taken away, limits a large part of what Alabama wants to do with the ball in its hands.
This might be tough for Missouri to stop. While the Tigers have some good size, they have struggled recently to keep opponents away from the basket. In SEC play, Missouri is giving up 31 points in the paint per game. A strong defensive performance, especially from post defenders, is key for Missouri in this game. Paint scoring isn’t something that you can completely stop Alabama from doing, but it will definitely make things easier for the Tigers.
2. Take advantage of turnovers
One thing Missouri does well on the defensive end of the court is force turnovers. The Tigers are forcing nearly 15 turnovers per game this season, though that number is just over 12 in conference games. Missouri has forced at least 10 turnovers in all but two games this season, with a high of 22 against Kansas and Mississippi Valley State. In a nutshell - Mizzou forces a lot of turnovers.
Missouri has done a great job turning turnovers into points. Since the start of conference play, Missouri ranks third in the SEC with 15 points per game off turnovers. This is where Missouri’s defense can make the biggest impact. Alabama has struggled with turnovers this season, averaging right around 13 per game all season. So, there should be plenty of opportunities to turn those turnovers into points.
Even though Alabama struggles to hold on to the ball, the Tide have done a solid of limiting points off turnovers. It might not be as easy for Mizzou to rack up these extra points. Either way, if Missouri can exploit Alabama’s propensity to cough up the ball, it should be a good way for the Tigers to take away a few of Alabama’s scoring opportunities while stealing a few extra points.
3. Get off to a quick start
Missouri has been prone to slow starts to games recently, and with how fast Alabama likes to play, the Tigers cannot afford to fall behind. In their games against Tennessee and Texas A&M, both of which ended in a loss, the Tigers struggled to score early in the game and went at least five minutes before recording a single point. And neither of those teams is anywhere close to how great Alabama is on offense.
One thing that sets Alabama apart from even the best offenses in the country is how fast the Tide likes to play. In SEC play, the Tide are taking nearly 63 shots per game and making close to 49 percent of those shots. Alabama is always looking to push the pace - score early and often. Most teams aren’t equipped to play at that breakneck speed for a full 40 minutes, let alone try and out-score a team like that.
So, trying to mount a comeback against a team that puts up a ton of shots and points might not be Missouri’s best option. Especially since the Tigers are averaging just under 55 shots per game in SEC play and generally have a few multi-minute scoreless stretches. If Missouri can match Alabama’s offensive output without having to go shot-for-shot, the better odds the Tigers have of snagging the win. A confident Missouri team is hard to beat, so riding the home crowd and taking an early lead can only mean good things for the Tigers.