One more round of games to go! There is still some seeding to be determined for conference tournaments and a handful of meaningful games for bubble teams. As always, that will be covered in the Weekend Game To Watch and the Sickos Game of the Week.
So this final weekly update of the season will be largely focused on the middle of March, and the main section will be the five postseason x-factor candidates in both the ACC and A-10. These are the players who aren't always relied upon in every single game (inconsistent stars like North Carolina's Seth Trimble and Dayton's De'Shayne Montgomery are thusly not eligible), but could completely change their team's fate with a massive performance or two.
Atlantic Ten
Five Postseason X-Factors:
-Ishan Sharma, Saint Louis: The ultimate offensive elevator, Sharma has come off of the bench and made three or more threes in seven of the Billikens' sixteen conference games, including six of the last ten. If you want to raise the threshold to games where he has made four or more, then Saint Louis' smallest margin of victory is thirteen against second place VCU. They can easily win games without a Sharma contribution, but when he is at his best, their offense is basically unstoppable.
-Nyk Lewis, VCU: Lewis has been bedeviled by inconsistency in his freshman season, but remains VCU's unquestioned best option at point guard, as seen by his playing crunch time despite scoring just one point in a huge game against George Mason. But he has kept himself in the A-10 Rookie of the Year race with a some huge performances, most notably in recent wins over La Salle (11 pts, 11 rebs, 4 asts) and George Washington (14 pts). The Rams' backcourt doesn't score a lot, so a boost from Lewis could really raise their ceiling.
-Khaafiq Myers, St. Joe's: The reigning A-10 Rookie of the Week made a name for himself with a stellar (12 pts, 6 rebs, 6 asts) performance off the bench in the win over George Mason that more or less sealed a double bye for the Hawks. St. Joe's has severely lacked depth all season and have been searching for a fourth scoring option to step up in games where Jaiden Glover-Toscano and Dasear Haskins aren't at their best. Myers probably won't be able to carry his best for a full A-10 Tournament, but one top notch performance may swing one of the three games the Hawks need to win.
-Masai Troutman, George Mason: The Patriots suffered a brutal blow with Fatt Hill's ankle injury last weekend (hasn't been announced as season ending but a week would be a quick turnaround) depriving them of their best slasher, while their second best rim attacker (Kory Mincy) continues to be dragged down by a thumb injury. But after that unfortunate moment for Hill, Troutman responded with a season best 14 second half points, playing with a level of force previously unseen from him. Someone needs to replace Hill's scoring for George Mason to have any chance of making a run, and Troutman is undoubtedly the best option.
-Alex Williams, Duquesne: At his worst, Williams is an above average defender who kicks in two or three baskets in a game. At his best, he is the co-leader of a lethal three headed offensive monster with the Dukes' starting guards. He's not a hot streak shooter by any means, but can really take advantage of driving lanes after hitting a jumper or two. And without any other role players capable of offensive explosions, Williams is the major swing piece.
Game Of The Week: Dayton 68, George Washington 66
In the best #FridA10 game of the season, Dayton threatened to run away with an early 16-3 lead that wound up nearly being erased by halftime. Tyrone Marshall gave the Revolutionaries a 66-64 lead with 46 seconds left on his third straight basket, before a foul line battle broke out. The A-10's second best free throw shooter, Dayton's Javon Bennett at 90.4%, drew a foul on a drive but went one for two. After a brillant quick foul from Amael L'Etang, GW's Rafael Castro missed both to fall to two for ten at the stripe for the game. L'Etang got fouled hauling in the rebound, made both and then a Marshall layup and Castro tip in attempt hit the rim and fell off.
Statline Of The Week: Robbie Avila (Saint Louis) - 23 points (8-12 fg), 7 rebounds, 7 assists in 91-76 win over Duquesne
Weekend Game To Watch: VCU at Dayton, Friday at 7:00 on ESPN2
VCU hasn't lost to a team besides Saint Louis in eight weeks and now find themselves in a very similar position as last season, needing to beat archrival Dayton on national tv to have a decent chance at an at-large bid should they fail to win the A-10 Tournament. A year ago, the Flyers walked into the Siegel Center and rode out victorous on the strength of a late 12-2 run. This time around, they are at home and riding a six game win streak following an embarrassing 99-73 loss to the Rams. The key for improvement, can Dayton keep VCU's forwards from getting downhill and shooting 55% from two like the prior matchup?
Sickos Game To Watch: 8 seed TBD vs 9 seed TBD, Thursday at 11:30 am on USA in Pittsburgh
The Saturday slate brings a terrific Saint Louis at George Mason matchup, but the other five games are either to determine minor shifts in seeding or simply for pride, as most of the A-10 Tournament is already locked in. Assuming George Washington beats Loyola Chicago, this game will feature either them (with a Duquesne loss) or Duquesne, facing the winner of Saturday's Rhode Island at Fordham game. It's the first notable game of the best day of Champ Week with some tantalizing matchup possibilities. A rubber match between Duquesne and Rhode Island. A revenge chance for GW after Fordham blew them out in their own building. Or Duquesne vs Fordham, a game that has been ugly in every edition for over a decade. The crowd is always half asleep and the vibes are weird but the game should be good. Champ Week!
This week's 3 Bid League podcast featured an A-10 Tournament preview with USA Network analyst and former La Salle coach Dr. John Giannini.
ACC
Five Postseason X-Factors:
-Dame Sarr, Duke: Blue Devils' legend Carlos Boozer was quoted the other day as saying that Duke is unstoppable when Sarr makes shots, and he's absolutely right. Jon Scheyer and his staff will gladly take an excuse to maximize the time that Sarr and his elite length and man on man defense is on the court in the biggest games. Plus, Duke's offense will require a role player to hit a few shots once they start to face other elite teams. Although, funny enough, Sarr's offense hasn't always meant winning. Duke is just 4-2 when he scores nine or more points.
-Sam Lewis, Virginia: The oft-forgotten fifth starter for the Cavaliers, Lewis has nearly as many ACC games with six or less points (six), then he does with fifteen or more (seven). He's been an absolute NC State killer (15-23 shooting across two games) and has been great against top competition (13.3 ppg versus above .500 ACC teams). Jacari White's return to form following his injury now gives the Cavaliers two significant offensive game changers further down in the scouting report, but Lewis has proven that he can carry Virginia in a game against the best.
-Shelton Henderson, Miami: The Hurricanes' star freshman has willingly taken on a secondary role this season behind Tre Donaldson and Malik Reneau, but has really begun to find himself as an on-ball attacker as of late. He's hasn't made a three since January, but has nonetheless shot 62.5% from two since January 31st. With Reneau inevitably finding himself in foul trouble in a big game in March, and Henderson's size and athleticism being a difficult matchup even for top teams, he will be called upon for some big performances if Miami is going to win any games.
-Paul McNeil Jr, NC State: It's no surprise that McNeil shot the ball poorly (32.6% from three) over NC State's recent 1-5 run, considering that the Wolfpack are 9-2 when their best sharpshooter breaks the fifteen point threshold. He's made more threes on the season than every ACC player outside of Ryan Conwell, fueling NC State to the second best shooting offense in the conference. We've seen enough evidence by now that if the Wolfpack are going to save their season in March, it will have to be with a bombardment of jumpers, led by McNeil.
-Chris Bell, California: There is no tougher matchup for defenses facing Cal to have to deal with than Bell, but only if he can hit a few corner threes early on and gain confidence. He has only had one game in which he scored more than fourteen points without making three plus threes, despite being an all over the court scorer. As the opposition has found better ways to slow down Dai Dai Ames and Justin Pippen, Bell is the one player who can open up the court (see SMU game).
Game Of The Week: #1 Duke 77, #11 Virginia 51
Look, there was no good choice for this week. There was a real lack of drama, and even an upset that went to overtime (Notre Dame over NC State) was over quickly once the extra period started. So how about we go with the finest performance, as Duke again clinched the ACC #1 seed and made another statement in dominating an elite team. The Blue Devils jumped out to a 28-12 lead and never once looked back, as they became the first team to hold the Cavaliers under sixty points this season. Cameron Boozer was his normal excellent self (18 pts, 9 rebs, 4 asts), despite only making three field goals, Isaiah Evans went five for nine from deep, and Caleb Foster continued to rack up assists.
Statline Of The Week: Myles Colvin (Wake Forest) - 32 points (7-8 3pt), 8 rebounds
Weekend Game To Watch: #17 North Carolina at #1 Duke, Saturday at 6:30 on ESPN
Honestly, this game is meaningless in terms of postseason impact, with North Carolina clinching a double bye in their midweek win over Clemson. But the greatest rivalry in college basketball will still have a lot on the line. Duke looking for revenge after Seth Trimble's game winner in Chapel Hill. UNC looking to knock the Blue Devils out of their #1 ranking. And the question hanging over all of it, will the Tar Heels' star forward Caleb Wilson be able to return from a fractured hand? If so, it will be the only chance to see if Wilson is compromised going into the postseason. And if he is, can Jarin Stevenson step up and battle with Cameron Boozer himself?
Sickos Game To Watch: SMU at Florida State, Saturday at 2:00 on ACCN
Florida State spent the month of February putting blemishes on the at-large resumes of Virginia Tech, Cal, Stanford and even Miami (who was on the bubble at the time). Now they face an SMU team that is drifting towards the bubble following a three game losing streak. In fact, the Mustangs only have one top 80 win (vs Louisville) since beating the Seminoles on January 24th. It's true do or die territory for the Mustangs against a team that has won eight of their last ten. But for Florida State to flip the script this time, they have to do better in defending Jaron Pierre Jr, who had his best performance in ACC play with 28 points last time around.
This week's Up The Coasts podcast features a Duke deep dive.