March Madness is finally here and if you are at all familiar with this time of year, then you know to expect the unexpected. Everyone will claim to have the answers to a perfect bracket, but we all know that will not happen, which is what ultimately makes this tournament so special. There is no better time than now to fire off all your takes because if they do not come to fruition, you can simply chalk it up to March.
With that being said, I will probably walk away with egg on my face when this year's tournament is all said and done, but here are 5 bold predictions for March Madness 2025.
1. St. John’s does not survive the first weekend
Everybody is loving St. John’s right now, but that seems to often end with a disappointing end in March. Rick Pitino has made it known that his team is not the best when it comes to shooting, and that is certainly something that can come back to get you in this tournament. They rank 53rd out of the field of 68 in field goal percentage at 45.1 and second to last in three point percentage at 30.1.
On top of that this team has only two players who have any experience playing on the big stage of the NCAA Tournament, and both of them were in very limited roles. Omaha could give the Johnnies a scare in the round of 64, but I am calling a for sure second round upset as I do not see them getting past the winner of the 7v10 matchup between Kansas and Arkansas who are both very talented and dangerous teams.
2. North Carolina advances to the Sweet 16
The biggest surprise from Selection Sunday was the North Carolina Tar Heels making it into the field. While their resume may say they are not the most deserving of a bid, they are still a very good team.
Making the Sweet 16 will not be an easy feat as they will have to win three games since they were one of the last four in and will head to Dayton for a play-in game. They are favored in that matchup against San Diego State and I believe they could blow them out. After that they would take on Ole Miss, who they matchup well with, and then likely Iowa State who has been banged up lately and will be without one of their best players in Keshon Gilbert.
Since it was introduced in 2011 a team from the First Four has won at least one game in the tournament every year but one, and has advanced to the Sweet 16 on five different occasions. I like the Tar Heels to continue that trend in 2025 as I do not see this RJ Davis led team going down without a fight.
3. Purdue gets knocked out by another double digit seed
The Boilermakers finally broke through last year making it to the national championship, but prior to that they became a laughing stock of March Madness by losing games that they had no business losing. Under Matt Painter, Purdue has been knocked out by a double digit seed five times, including the infamous loss as a 1 seed to 16 Fairleigh Dickinson in 2023.
Purdue is looking upset prone once again as they have not been playing their best basketball losing six of their last nine. I think we get two chances for this to happen again with either 13 High Point in the first round or 12 McNeese in the round of 32. High Point is a very impressive offensive team that can kill you down low and they have just five losses on the season, four of which were by four points or less. McNeese, led by Will Wade, is another team who just wins and has experience going against power conference teams from earlier in the season. I like at least one upset to occur in that small quadrant so if High Point cannot do it in round one, I will take my chances with McNeese pulling off back-to-back upsets to send the Boilermakers home.
4. No seed higher than 3 makes the Final Four
I know this may not seem like a hot take predicting the best teams to go far, but historically this does not happen. Cinderellas have become a staple of this tournament as the last time the Final Four consisted solely of 1, 2, or 3 seeds was 2009 and since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985 it has only happened 11 times. This is a very top heavy bracket in my mind, and it is built for the best teams to outlast. The upsets will come in the early rounds, but I like the top teams to make it to San Antonio.
5. Just one SEC team makes the Final Four
With 14 total teams in the field and two 1 seeds, the SEC has a good shot of multiple teams going far, but I am going to go out on a limb and say that does not happen. After the first round I think that total of 14 gets cut in half and continues to dwindle down as the tournament goes on.
I question how good defensively many of these SEC teams actually are and see that as a factor leading to a poor showing in this tournament. If I had to pick the team that goes the furthest, I will make this even more of a bold take and say Alabama regroups, gets Grant Nelson back, takes down Duke, and is the sole SEC representative in San Antonio.