Championship week is upon us, and with the coaching carousel already in motion, several coaches' futures with their respective programs could very well depend on their performance in their conference tournaments. Historically speaking, good showings in conference tournaments have at times been enough for coaches to cool their seat off, while poor showings could be enough to trigger a coaching change.
It will likely be a hectic week with many teams needing to win their conference's auto bid in order to make the NCAA Tournament. As is customary every year, there are bound to be upsets, and potentially bid stealers, and some of those results could have a profound impact on certain coaches' futures.
With being said, here are some coaches who could be fired with an early Championship Week exit.
Kyle Neptune, Villanova
Villanova's Kyle Neptune entered the season on the hot seat, and barring an unexpected run in the Big East Tournament, the Wildcats will almost certainly miss the NCAA Tournament for the third time in three years under Neptune's leadership. As things stand, the 18-13 Wildcats would need to win the Big East Tournament to reach the NCAA Tournament, and it could very well be Neptune's only path to returning as head coach next season. But an early exit, especially in their opening round matchup versus Seton Hall, would almost certainly seal Neptune's fate.
Wes Miller, Cincinnati
Wes Miller's Bearcats find themselves in a similar position to Villanova; their only path to the NCAA Tournament is through winning their conference tournament's autobid. Miller is in his fourth season as Cincinnati's head coach, and the team has failed to make an NCAA Tournament appearance under Miller's guidance. A solid Championship Week run and a postseason appearance of some kind (NIT or College Basketball Crown) could be enough to give Miller a make-or-break fifth season, but a first-round exit from the Big 12 Tournament could make those odds rather bleak.
Jeff Capel, Pittsburgh
A little over two months ago, Pitt looked to be among the top teams in the ACC, sitting at 12-2 (3-0 ACC) while projected to have a rather high seed in the NCAA Tournament. But it's been all downhill since then, as the Panthers have since gone 5-12, falling to 17-14 (8-12 ACC) and completely out of the NCAA Tournament picture altogether. Capel is in his seventh year at the helm of the Panthers, and while he inherited a mess of a program that was fresh off a season that saw them go 0-18 in ACC play, time may be running out for Capel, who has only reached one NCAA Tournament with the team. It's ACC championship or bust for the 13th-seeded Panthers, who will face Notre Dame in their opening matchup. A first round exit for Capel & co after the start they had could be enough to warrant a coaching change in Pittsburgh.
Bobby Hurley, Arizona State
The Sun Devils had a solid showing in non-conference play, picking up wins over teams such as St. Mary's and New Mexico, and were firmly in the NCAA Tournament discussion. But Arizona State appears to be in a free fall at this point, as they have 1-10 since February and sit at 13-18 overall after a 4-16 showing in Big 12 play. Hurley, in his 10th season as Arizona State's head coach, has led the Sun Devils to three NCAA Tournament appearances, but an early exit from the Big 12 Tournament coupled with their recent struggles may be enough for the two sides to part ways.
Rodney Terry, Texas
It may as well be year two-and-a-half for Rodney Terry at Texas. Terry took over as the Longhorns' head coach midway through the 2022-23 season following the firing of Chris Beard and led then-ranked no. 2 Texas to a Big 12 Tournament Championship and an Elite Eight appearance while earning himself the full-time role as the Longhorns' head coach. But it's been going downhill since then, as the Longhorns were a second-round NCAA Tournament exit last season, and this year, they currently sit at 17-14 (6-12 ) and are in serious jeopardy of missing the NCAA Tournament altogether.
Terry has been able to two highly talented rosters in both of his seasons as the full-time head coach, garnering preseason top 25 rankings both years, but Texas has yet to live up to those expectations. The Longhorns currently find themselves on the wrong side of the NCAA Tournament bubble, and it would take a rather deep run to potentially get themselves on the right side of the bubble. But with a hasty exit from the SEC Tournament this week, Terry's time could be up in Austin.
Bonus Retirement Watch: Fran McCaffery, Iowa
It's a bit of a surprise that Iowa made the Big Ten Tournament to begin with, as it took a rather shocking upset win at Nebraska to clinch the last spot in the 15-team Big Team Tournament. But without a cinderella run through the Big Ten Tournament, the Hawkeyes look set to miss the big dance for the second straight year, and an early exit from the Big Ten Tournament may keep them out of any postseason tournaments altogether.
However, McCaffery will turn 66 over the offseason, and given he is the winningest coach in Iowa program history, he'd almost certainly be given the option to retire on his own terms before anything else.