As February nears, the at-large field is beginning to mold into shape. Teams like Auburn, Iowa State and Duke are vying for the No. 1 overall seed whereas other teams have firmly cemented themselves inside the Field of 68 barring a mid/late season collapse. Despite this, not all teams are in the clear, meaning they have plenty of work to do if they wish to feel safe come Selection Sunday. Take a look at five teams in danger of missing the 2025 NCAA Tournament.
Gonzaga Bulldogs
The wheels on the bus in Spokane have begun to fall off. After experiencing an underwhelming non-conference portion of the season in which the veteran-laden Bulldogs struggled to close out games, Gonzaga has now dropped back-to-back WCC games: at Oregon State in OT and versus Santa Clara. After a preseason enamored with promise and Monday night expectations, the Bulldogs are suddenly in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament altogether.
Taking a deeper look into Gonzaga’s resume, the Bulldogs – ranked 19th in the NET – are rapidly approaching double-digit seed territory. Q1 wins over Baylor and San Diego State will hold serve, however, the Bulldogs have yet to pick up another Q1 win since the first two weeks of the season. There’s no question Gonzaga has had its chances. But its margin of error continues to shrink with each mounting loss.
Pitt Panthers
After a scorching-hot start in which the Pitt Panthers skyrocketed into the top 10 of the NET, Jeff Capel’s squad has dropped four straight games and is trending in the wrong direction as February approaches.
At 12-6 (3-4), the Panthers have just one Q1 win. Its predictive metrics – once its strong point on its resume – are still relatively solid but have begun to waver as Pitt's hot-and-cold defense has given up an average of 1.17 points-per-possession amidst its four-game slide.
It may be too early to call any game a “must-win” in January. But Pitt may be the exception here. A road trip to a struggling Syracuse squad followed by matchups versus bubble foes in North Carolina and Wake Forest are as must-win as they come – especially for a team looking to stop the bleeding.
North Carolina Tar Heels
It’s been a roller-coaster season in Chapel Hill. Just as North Carolina was looking as if they turned a corner, the Tar Heels dropped two straight one-point games: versus Stanford and at Wake Forest.
Now At 12-8 (5-3), the North Carolina Tar Heels are in serious danger of missing the NCAA Tournament – and there are plenty of reasons why this has been the case. The Cade Tyson experiment hasn’t gone to plan. Ian Jackson has cooled off. Frontcourt and rebounding issues abound. Defensive concerns. RJ Davis and Elliot Cadeu’s inconsistencies. You name it.
The Tar Heels are a woeful 1-7 in Q1 games and its SOR and WAB are quickly approaching the 50’s. While North Carolina still has plenty of opportunities to right the ship, even amidst a weak ACC, its margin of error shrunk considerably after its past two nail-biting losses.
Nebraska Cornhuskers
The Cornhuskers let a winnable game slip the cracks on Wednesday night, falling 78-73 to USC at home, mounting Nebraska’s losing streak to five games.
The issue with the Cornhuskers lies on the defensive end. Nebraska, once touting a top-25 KenPom defensive efficiency rating, has since fallen to 42nd after allowing opponents to shoot an average of 60 eFG% in its past five games.
Now at 12-7 (2-6), the Huskers will embark upon a season-defining stretch with Wisconsin, Illinois and Oregon up next. A couple wins here and the Huskers may find themselves right back in the thick of the NCAA Tournament conversation. If they drop all three? The Huskers’ at-large tournament hopes will all but evaporate.
Indiana Hoosiers
Sometimes, it’s not “if” you lose, it's “how” you lose. And the Indiana Hoosiers are learning the hard way. At 14-6 (5-4), it would seem as if Indiana would be on the right side of the bubble if the season ended today. But Indiana’s average margin of defeat is by a staggering 20 points, which has unquestionably hurt its middling predictive metrics and has put the Hoosiers in real danger of missing the 2025 NCAA Tournament.
Because Indiana couldn't capture any quality wins in non-conference play, the pressure is on to string together quality wins in the Big Ten. The good? Indiana still has plenty of opportunities to put itself firmly in the field. The bad? Its next five games – all versus Q1 opponents – are brutal. A pivotal couple of weeks lies ahead in Bloomington.