As we head down the final stretch of the college basketball season, the race for the final NCAA Tournament bids heats up and the pressure rises. Which teams have the most pressure on them during Championship Week? And what does each of those teams need to accomplish in their respective conference tournaments to hear their name called on Selection Sunday? Let's dive in and get you set up for which games mean the most this week. After all, it's almost time for March Madness.
- 21-9, NET 45, (2-5 Quad 1 / 4-2 Quad 2 / 5-1 Quad 3 / 10-1 Quad 4 )
Mountain West Tournament – 5 Seed vs. SDSU – Thursday 2:30pm PST - CBSSN
The Broncos have taken a rather circuitous path to the bubble. Boise State’s season started with a loud thud, check that actually two loud thuds. Two brutal early season losses (Quad 3 neutral court loss vs. Washington State & a Quad 4 neutral court loss vs. Boston College). Next, they had to right the ship: wins over St. Mary’s & Clemson certainly checked that box. Finally, they had to have a solid Mountain West regular season - 14-6 with wins over Utah State & New Mexico did just that.
And so the Broncos likely currently sit just outside the NCAA Tournament cutline, and with a few potential bids being stolen this week – it’s going to take a deep run in the Mountain West Tournament to find their way into the NCAA Tournament field. But the good news for Bronco fans - the schedule lines up perfectly. A Quad 1 trifecta potentially awaits: First, a Quad 1 win over SDSU would then give them another Quad 1 opportunity vs. the 1-seeded conference champs New Mexico. Two wins might just be enough, but if not they would likely play Utah State or fellow bubble mate Colorado State in the Mountain West finals. It won't be easy, but then again, compared to where they were in early December - their path to March Madness is relatively straightforward.
- 19-12, NET 47, (6-10 Quad 1 / 4-1 Quad 2 / 2-1 Quad 3 / 7-0 Quad 4 )
SEC – 14 Seed vs. Georgia – Wednesday 8:30pm CST – SEC NETWORK
Yes, you read that correctly above. Oklahoma is ranked 14th in their conference tournament, and yes they are currently projected to make the NCAA Tournament. I know it’s a lot to take in. Let’s unpack it. First, the Sooners started 13-0 in their non-conference season. And while their strength of schedule was mediocre at best (160th nationally), it did include solid neutral court wins over Arizona & Louisville. So one would think with that start, and a weak bubble that an at-large selection was nearly impossible to miss. Well….have you ever seen the very popular meme with the dog surrounded by fire saying, “This is fine?” – well, that’s been the Sooner's last two months. A staggering 4-12 start to the SEC at least ended with two wins to get them to 6-12 overall in the SEC. The good news for Sooners fans: Conference record is not listed on the NCAA Selection criteria team sheets. You heard me. Ultimately, we are told – that conference records don’t matter. And boy, do the Sooners hope it doesn’t.
Sometimes both things can be true: Yes, this year’s SEC is likely the strongest conference in recent history of college hoops and will shatter the record for NCAA Tournament teams (likely 13 bids!) But it’s also true that a team that finishes 14th in their conference and loses in the opening round of their conference tournament doesn’t exactly fit the profile of any at-large selection in the history of the NCAA Tournament. And so here we are. Sooners, just make it easy. Win over Georgia and you are likely in. Win over Georgia and Kentucky and everything is just fine (with no fire this time).
- 20-12, NET 40, (1-11 Quad 1 / 7-0 Quad 2 / 6-1 Quad 3 / 6-0 Quad 4 )
ACC – 5 Seed vs. ND/Pitt – Wednesday 2:30pm EST - ESPN
The fact that we are discussing the Tar Heels as a potential at-large candidate is an incredibly telling indictment of this year’s bubble. It’s weak. It’s very weak. In fact, it’s weak enough that North Carolina has played basketball for four and a half months, has beaten one team projected for the NCAA Tournament (vs. UCLA – neutral court), and the Heels still have a potential for an at-large bid. For most of the year, UNC hung their hat on the fact they didn’t have any bad losses…….until…… a January 18th home loss to Quad 3 – Stanford. And so that wrecked their narrative and put them behind the 8-ball.
On a positive note: They have been otherwise very solid against non-tournament level competition, they are playing much better of late, and the committee will absolutely respect their 5th-ranked non-conference strength of schedule. A path to the NCAA Tournament isn’t going to be easy, but there is hope in a down ACC tournament field this season. Sure, they need to beat the ND/Pitt winner, then they must beat Wake Forest. From there, it gets interesting – likely a date with Duke. A win over top-seeded Duke would place them into the ACC finals, and while odds would still be against them, it would give them a fighting chance to hear their name called on Selection Sunday.
- 21-10, NET 40, (1-8 Quad 1 / 8-2 Quad 2 / 5-0 Quad 3 / 7-0 Quad 4 )
Big East – 4 Seed vs. Marquette – Thursday 2:30pm EST - Peacock
A season that started with so much frustration during a 9-7 start has evolved into a very optimistic and realistic path to an NCAA Tournament bid. Winners of 12 of their last 15, the Musketeers have gotten hot at just the right time. The good news: a solid record, a great road win over Marquette and home wins over UConn & Creighton. The bad news: That’s it. There are only three wins over NCAA Tournament-caliber teams, and a 1-8 Quad 1 record doesn’t exactly scream March Madness.
But Xavier has no bad losses and while their Big East Tournament path is extremely challenging, that’s exactly the kind of road they need to move the needle and vault into the NCAA Tournament field. A win in the Big East Quarterfinals vs. Marquette is imperative, but likely so too will be a showdown with top-seed & hometown team St. John’s. Win two, and they are likely dancing. Anything less, and Sean Miller will miss the NCAA Tournament for the second straight season.
- 17-14, NET 36, (6-11 Quad 1 / 3-3 Quad 2 / 2-0 Quad 3 / 6-0 Quad 4 )
Big Ten – 10 Seed vs. Iowa – Wednesday 6pm EST - Peacock
In a season with a weak bubble, a team with the following wins should be fine, right?: @ Purdue, vs. Kentucky on a neutral court by 20pts, vs. Maryland, vs. Texas on a neutral court. Well, they would be fine, except for the fact that the talented but inconsistent Buckeyes' overall record sits at 17-14. The NCAA selection committee has an unwritten but historically consistent rule that they rarely select teams with an overall record less than four games over .500. The last team selected was the 2022 17-14 Michigan (gasp) Wolverines. Or for those Buckeye fans reading, the 2022 ‘School Up North’. The Buckeyes' resume strength is the QUALITY of wins, the problem is just that……they don’t have enough QUANTITY of wins. Their incredibly challenging strength of schedule (17th nationally & 41st in the non-conference) has created an uncomfortable amount of losses.
Of all the teams that sit on the bubble, Ohio State is the most in peril. They are likely the team that will be at the mercy of bid thieves from other conferences, so wins at the Big Ten Tournament in Indianapolis are absolutely necessary. They start with Iowa on Wednesday, then a potential date with Illinois, followed by a potential dual with Maryland. The path for Ohio State: Two wins and hope for only 1 bid thief this Championship Week. Buckeye fans have had heartbreak over so many one-possession losses this season (six, to be exact). Maybe, just maybe, the Buckeyes can make a run and earn a trip to Dayton's First Four in their home state?