Each year, several head coaches will enter the season on the Hot Seat. Some of these coaches will do well enough to cool their seat off while others aren't as fortunate. As the calendar flips to February, There's several coaches who are firmly on the hot seat, in addition to a few other coaches seats beginning to warm up.
It's become common to see several high major programs have a head coach opening in a given offseason, and this year will not be an exception. There's already two high major programs (Virginia and Miami) who are set to have a head coach opening this offseason after their former coaches, Tony Bennett and Jim Larrañaga, retired in October and December, respectively.
As things stand, it's likely that there will be a few other programs - both high major and mid major - following suit and making a coaching change this offseason. But it remains to be seen what exactly that group will look like, and who else could be effected by those moves.
With that being said, here are some of the notable coaches who could be on the hot seat at the moment.
1. Kyle Neptune, Villanova
Kyle Neptune replaced retiring head coach Jay Wright entering the 2022-23 season and took over a Villanova program that was fresh off a Final Four appearance. Now in his third season at the helm, the Wildcats have struggled under Neptune's leadership, having missed the NCAA Tournament in his first two seasons and appear likely to once again miss the NCAA tournament this season.
Neptune has 47-41 (25-25 in Big East play) record as Villanova's head coach, and barring an unexpected turnaround to end the season, it is looking unlikely that Neptune returns for a fourth season.
2. Mike Woodson, Indiana
Fourth year head coach Mike Woodson took Indiana to the NCAA Tournament in each of his first two seasons, which included a 2022-23 campaign that saw the Indiana finish 23-12, which marked the Hoosiers' best season since the 2015-16 season. But it has gone downhill since then, as the Hoosiers went 19-14 and missed the NCAA Tournament for the first time under Woodson. This year isn't looking much better, as Indiana is currently 14-7 (5-5 Big Ten) overall and finds themselves on the wrong side of the tournament bubble.
Despite this, the Hoosiers remain in striking distance of the NCAA Tournament and could certainly reach the big dance, but given the high preseason expectations for Indiana, it may require a second weekend appearance for Woodson to truly cool his seat off.
3. Adrian Autry, Syracuse
The Orange had a decent first year under Jim Boeheim's successor, Adrian Autry, finishing 20-12 overall (11-9 20-win) in a season that saw the Orange's first win over a top 10 team and 20 win season since the 2018-19 season.
However, Adrian Autry's second year at Syracuse has not gone as planned, as the Orange currently sit at 9-12 overall, including a 3-7 mark in ACC play. The Orange are currently among the lowest ranked high major teams from both a win-loss and metrics perspective, and with only 15 of the 18 ACC teams qualifying for this year's ACC Tournament, there is a real possibility that Syracuse could miss the ACC Tournament altogether.
It remains to be seen as to whether Autry gets a year three at Syracuse, but if the Orange continue trending in the direction they're going right now, the odds of Autry returning for a third season will be grim.
4. Mike Young, Virginia Tech
In his first three seasons at Virginia Tech, Mike Young reached the NCAA Tournament twice and won the 2022 ACC Tournament and looked to have one of the more stable programs in an otherwise wobbly ACC. But the wheels have fallen off since then, as the Hokies have missed the NCAA Tournament the last two seasons and are currently in the midst of their worst season under Young, sitting at just 8-12 overall with a 3-6 mark in ACC play.
Much like Syracuse, the Hokies are among the worst high major teams at the moment, and find themselves in serious jeopardy of missing the ACC Tournament altogether. Given that the Hokies have regressed significantly in the last three years following their ACC Tournament Championship, it's hard to envision Mike Young returning to Blacksburg for a seventh season.
5. Wes Miller, Cincinnati
The Bearcats are in year four of the Wes Miller era, and they entered the 2024-25 season with high expectations, as they were ranked No. 20 in the preseason top 25 poll, and were looking poised to snap their NCAA Tournament drought that dates back to 2019. But it's been downhill sledding since then, as the Bearcats have been among the biggest disappointments this year, as they currently sit 12-8 overall with a bleak 2-7 record in Big 12 play and have fallen out of the projected NCAA Tournament field.
Despite coming close on numerous occasions, the Bearcats have often struggled to capitalize on opportunities for signature wins that would keep them in tournament discussion, and this year has been no exception. The Bearcats currently have an 0-7 mark in quad 1 games this season, and as a result, aren't particularly close to the NCAA Tournament bubble. The Bearcats will have several upcoming opportunities for big wins to work their way back into NCAA Tournament discussion, but if they can't buck the current trends, the calls for a coaching change will only grow louder.
Cincinnati has made an NIT appearance in each of their last two seasons, and as things stand right now, there's a good chance that they will end up in the NIT for the third consecutive season. That being said, the Bearcats currently have a strong 2025 recruiting class, and that alone could be enough for Miller to get a fifth year at the helm. It remains to be seen as to what Miller's future holds beyond this season, but should the Bearcats once again finish near the bottom of the Big 12 this year, there would be a distinct possibility that the two sides part ways.
6. Fran McCaffery, Iowa
The Hawkeyes have had some impressive stretches of basketball since McCaffery took over the program ahead of the 2010-11 season. They have become a regular in the NCAA Tournament and won the Big Ten Tournament in 2022 for just the third time in program history. However, the Hawkeyes have yet to reach the Sweet 16 under McCaffery despite being as high as a 2 seed in the Big Dance. On top of this, the Hawkeyes have fallen off a bit over the last two years, as they missed the NCAA Tournament last year for the first time since 2018, and they appear to be headed towards a similar fate this year.
In many previous seasons under McCaffery, Iowa has had experienced rosters full of veteran players, and it helped them achieve the recent success they've had. However, retaining a majority of any team's roster year over year has become much tougher in the new transfer portal era. Subsequently, Iowa, along with many other teams across the country, often has to deal with significant roster overhauls each year, and one has to wonder if that has in fact played a role in Iowa's recent regressions.
The changing landscape of college basketball has led to some surprise coaching retirements, with more to (likely) come in the next few years, and McCaffery, who will turn 66 years old this offseason, could very well be one of those. All things considered, it's extremely unlikely Iowa outright fires McCaffery. He's the winningest and longest-tenured coach in Iowa Basketball history, and if the calls for a coaching change grow loud enough, McCaffery would likely opt to retire. Perhaps this is more of a retirement watch, but it's still something to keep an eye on.
7. Johnny Dawkins, UCF
There have always been a few coaches who seemingly spend several years on the hot seat before finally being fired, doing just enough to keep their job or just straight up winning their way off of the hot seat. Coaches such as Brad Brownell, Fred Hoiberg, Kevin Keatts, and UCF's Johnny Dawkins all seem to fall into this category. However, while the first three seemed to win their way off the hot seat (for now) last year, Dawkins seemed to do just enough to avoid the pink slip, and he remains on the hot seat in his ninth season as UCF's head coach.
The Knights went 17-16 (7-11 Big 12) last year in their first season in a loaded Big 12, and qualified for the NIT for the second straight year. They picked up a few signature wins, including a win over then no. 3 ranked Kansas and remained respectable throughout Big 12 play, even if it didn't always lead to wins. And while it was enough for Dawkins to keep his job for another year, it didn't get him off the hot seat.
UCF has made the NCAA Tournament once (2019) under Dawkins, and their move to the Big 12 will give them many opportunities for key wins that could help get them back in the NCAA Tournament thanks to the tougher competition. As things stand right now, UCF is 13-7 overall (4-5 Big 12) and is right on the edge of the NCAA Tournament cut line. They have plenty of upcoming opportunities to firmly put themselves in the tournament field for the first time in six years. Should UCF make the NCAA Tournament, it would certainly help cool off Dawkins' seat for a while.
8. Ben Johnson, Minnesota
Ben Johnson is in his fourth year at the helm of the Golden Gophers, and the team has spent a significant portion portion of his tenure in cellar of the Big Ten. In his first two years with Minnesota, the Gophers had a 6-33 overall mark in Big Ten play, and Johnson almost certainly on the hot seat ahead of the 2023-24 season.
But the Golden Gophers significantly improved during the 2023-24 season, finishing 19-15 overall with a 9-11 mark in Big Ten play and reached the second round of the NIT. While his seat may have cooled off a little thanks to the improvements, Johnson's seat was once again getting hot as Minnesota started off the year 8-9 with an 0-6 record in Big Ten play, and looked as if they would once again be relegated to the conference's basement. However, the Gophers promptly rattled off three straight impressive wins that saw them defeat two ranked teams in Michigan and Oregon, while also defeating Iowa on the road, and perhaps cooling off Johnson's seat in the process.
But he's far from out of the woods yet, as the Gophers still remain close to the bottom of the Big Ten, and given that only 15 of the Big Ten's 18 teams will make the Big Ten Tournament this year, the Gophers remain in jeopardy of missing the Big Ten Tournament altogether. If the Gophers are able to remain respectable and win at least 7/8 games in conference play and make the Big Ten Tournament, there's a reasonable chance Johnson could get another year. If the Gophers are to miss the Big Ten Tournament, however, it could very well spell the end of the Ben Johnson era in Minnesota.
Mid Major Coaches on the Hot Seat/Seat is Warming up:
Doug Gottleib (Green Bay), Anthony Grant (Dayton), Matt McKillop (Davidson), Kevin Kruger (UNLV)
Coaches who aren't on the hot seat... for now
Craig Smith, Utah
Craig Smith is in his fourth year as head coach at Utah, but he's yet to get the Utes back into the NCAA Tournament for the first time in nearly a decade. Smith has a 62-58 overall record at Utah, but has a 27-42 (23-37 Pac 12, 4-5 Big 12) overall mark in conference play.
Utah was 15-7 at one point last year and seemed to be on their way to making the NCAA Tournament, however the Utes went 3-6 to finish the regular season and were instead relegated to an NIT bid, their first postseason appearance of any kind since the 2017-18 season. Utah is currently 12-8 (4-5 Big 12) overall and are a longshot to make the NCAA Tournament. That being said, Utah has been able to remain mid pack in a strong Big 12 conference, and if they can continue to pick up solid wins in conference play, they could reach the NIT/College Basketball Crown and keep Smith off the hot seat for his fifth year.
Hubert Davis, North Carolina
Hubert Davis' tenure at North Carolina has featured plenty of ups and downs. In Davis' first year as the Tar Heels' head coach in the 2021-22 season, Carolina reached the National Championship Game as an 8 seed after upsetting bitter rival Duke in the Final Four and effectively and ending Coach K's tenure as Duke's head coach. The Tar Heels nearly won the National Championship altogether, but squandered a double digit halftime lead and ultimately fell to Kansas 72-69.
The following season, North Carolina were ranked no. 1 in the preseason polls, but ended up being one of the biggest disappointments of the season, finishing 20-13 and missing the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2010. But the Tar Heels bounced back last year, finishing 29-8 overall and earned a 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament and advanced to the Sweet 16 before being upset by Alabama.
This year, North Carolina is currently 13-9 overall and once again looks to be serious danger of missing the NCAA Tournament for the second time in three years. If the Tar Heels were to miss the NCAA Tournament this year, it's unlikely that that Davis would be fired, but he would certainly find himself on the hot seat next year,.
Thad Matta, Butler
Butler has been a disappointment this year, currently sitting at 9-12 (2-8 Big East) despite entering the season with rather high expectations following an 18-15 campaign that saw them reach the NIT, marking their first postseason appearance since the 2018-19 season. And Butler had a great start to the year, racing out to a 7-1 record while picking up solid wins over SMU, Northwestern, and Mississippi State. The Bulldogs certainly were playing like an NCAA tournament team, and it seemed as though they could be on their way to their first appearance in the big dance since 2018.
But things went south from there, as Butler has gone 2-11 since then and find themselves in 9th place in the Big East, with their only two wins coming versus DePaul and Seton Hall - the only two teams behind them in the Big East standings. The Bulldogs have not finished .500 or better in conference play since the 2019-20 season and that appears to be unlikely to change this year.
In spite of this, Butler has an impressive class of 2025 recruiting class that is top 25 overall and is the highest rated recruiting class in program history. With that in mind, it appears less likely that Butler would move on from Matta after the season and likely risk losing many of those recruits. Nonetheless, barring a huge turnaround the end the year, Matta will likely begin next season on the hot seat.
Earl Grant, Boston College
As a whole, the Boston College Basketball program has struggled for over a decade. Their NCAA Tournament drought stretches all the way back to 2009, and is the second-longest tournament drought among all high major programs. Midway through year four, Grant has a 58-64 overall record with the Eagles, and his .475 overall win percentage is the highest any Boston College coach has had since Al Grant, who was fired in 2010.
The Eagles slowly inched closer towards respectability in Grant's first three seasons, cumulating a 20-16 season last year which saw the team reach the second round of the NIT, marking their first 20 win season since 2011 and their first postseason appearance of any kind since their last NCAA Tournament appearance in 2019. However, the Eagles have had a rough season this year, sitting at 9-11 with a 1-8 record in ACC play. If the Eagles don't show any improvement, there could be a chance Grant does get fired. But given that some of Grant's predecessors who fared worse were often given a generous amount of time at the helm, the odds are that Grant returns for a fifth season.
Porter Moser, Oklahoma
One could argue that Oklahoma's Porter Moser began the season on the hot seat after he failed to make the NCAA Tournament in each of his first three seasons in Norman. Granted, the Sooners were the committee's first team out in two of those three seasons (2022 and 2024), both of which saw multiple bid stealers shake up the field. But that doesn't change the fact that Moser is still searching for his first appearance in the big dance as the Sooners' head coach.
However, a 13-0 start cooled off his seat for the time being. But the gauntlet that is Soonersplay has taken a toll on the Sooners so far, and they're off to a 2-5 start in conference play and have slipped to 15-5 overall. It largely mirrors the fate the Sooners had last season, where Oklahoma raced out to a 13-1 record before faltering down the stretch in Big 12 play, finishing 20-12 overall while being the first team left out of the field of 68.
While the Sooners still remain in the projected NCAA Tournament field, their wiggle room has shrunk dramatically due to their slow start to SEC play. If Oklahoma is unable to string together some SEC wins and remain in the projected field, Moser would almost certainly be back on the hot seat. For now, he's in better shape than he was to start the year, but he'll at the minimum need to reach the NCAA Tournament this to stay off the hot seat.
Steve Pikiell, Rutgers
Pikiell is an interesting case to say the least. On one side, Pikiell snapped Rutgers' 30-year NCAA Tournament drought in 2021, as his Scarlet Knights qualified as a 10 seed and ultimately reached the second round of the Tournament. Then there's the other side of the story, as Pikiell's Scarlet Knights brought in a top 5 recruiting class this year highlighted by Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey and began the season in the preseason top 25. Despite some impressive showings by the freshman duo, Rutgers has been a disappointment thus far, sitting at 11-10 overall and are well outside of the NCAA Tournament field as things stand.
But it remains unlikely that Rutgers moves on from Pikiell this offseason, regardless of how the Scarlet Knights finish the year. That being said, if Rutgers finishes the year poorly, Pikiell's seat may start to warm up a little more.