We're about three weeks from the beginning of conference tournament play. With the first week or so dedicated to those traditional one-bid leagues, we tend to start thinking about who this year's surprise (if you only watch March Madness) teams could be in the NCAA Tournament. While the majority of focus has been on the SEC and Big 12, and rightly so, for good reason, there are plenty of teams outside of those conferences that are having fantastic seasons. Even though there is a long way to go, and conference play can lead to some unsuspecting results that upset the apple cart, some teams are off to strong starts and are looking to ride that wave the rest of the year.
The issue for the teams and especially the favorites in one-bid leagues, is that each blemish this time of year hurts more than most when they know it's win or go home come conference tournament time. Some of these teams look like clearcut favorites and have a big target on their backs, and others have competition, knowing those one or two games on their schedule will likely make or break their regular season. As we barrel towards February and the significance ratchets up with every game, these ten teams are ones to watch over the next six weeks. I had the opportunity to talk to some of the key players involved about their seasons and the road ahead. Here are some key mid-major teams to watch as they begin the most critical month of their seasons.
Bradley Braves 18-5, 9-3 in Missouri Valley
In his 10th year at Bradley, Brian Wardle has turned a team known for its defense into one of the better offensive teams in the country. The 18-5 Braves are one game behind Drake in the Missouri Valley and have been on a roll of late despite losing their second straight league game on Sunday, winning 10 of their last 13. The Braves score 79 points per game and are the 3rd best three-point shooting team in the country at 39.7%. They’re also 10th best in effective field goal percentage and top 60 in two-point percentage and don’t foul them because they shoot 79% from the charity stripe.
Leading scorer Duke Deen says about the Braves’ season so far, “We’ve stayed together, we’ve learned from mistakes that we have made. I think practice has been a big deal for us, I think sometimes our practices are harder than the games.” He says playing for Wardle has been a joy and when asked how to describe him, he needed no time to think, “Competitive, competitive and competitive.” The Braves would’ve been in the NCAA Tournament in 2020 had it not been canceled and if they are to get back there this year Deen says, “We have to play Bradley basketball on the big stage, we have to do our job.”
Drake Bulldogs 20-2, 10-2 in Missouri Valley
Stop me if you've heard this one before: Drake is in the hunt for a Missouri Valley title. With a new coach in Ben McCollum and some new faces leading the way the Bulldogs are 10-2 in conference play, not much has changed in Des Moines. Coming with some of his players from Division II powerhouse Northwest Missouri State, McCollum and his crew got off to a roaring start, reeling off 12 straight wins to begin the year, including wins over Miami, Kansas State, and an 11-point win over Vanderbilt that looks better every day. After a mid-year hiccup with back-to-back losses to Illinios-Chicago and Murray State, Drake is in the midst of another winning streak, this one is eight games long.
Being efficient offensively doesn’t necessarily mean playing fast. The Bulldogs are a top-100 team in that efficiency but are dead last, 364th in both adjusted tempo and average possession length. But that style works well if you do it well, and Drake does, being good with the ball in their hands which forces their opponents to do the same because possessions come at a premium. Because of that, the Bulldogs only score 71 points per game, with three in double digits. Bennett Stirtz, Mitch Mascari and Daniel Abreu have something else in common, they all played for McCollum last year and are used to the big stage. As we sit, Drake and Bradley lead the Valley by two games over a group of three, with a huge battle in Peoria between the two happening in mid-February.
Grand Canyon Antelopes 17-5, 7-1 in WAC
Speaking of teams that play at a fast pace, the Antelopes is a good nickname for Grand Canyon because their gracefulness has been scorching the courts in Phoenix since head coach Bryce Drew’s arrival to the tune of a 77-25 record over the last three seasons. One thing can be said about this iteration of the Antelopes is they won’t be put away easily, to date, the only game they’ve lost by double-digits was an 87-76 loss to Arizona State, which they trailed by just one at the half.
The Lopes average just under 80 points per game, but how they get there is a little unique. They don’t use the three-pointer, shooting just 32% on the season, but they are very good at getting to the free-throw line. They are 25th in the country in free throw rate and 9th in free throw attempts per field goal attempts per KenPom. They shoot 74% from the line, but when you average 26 attempts per game and make 19.7, that is a lot of free points. Grand Canyon may have the experience, but that doesn’t guarantee them anything as they sit in a dead heat with Utah Valley for the top spot in the WAC after their final regular season matchup on Saturday.
High Point Panthers 19-5, 7-2 in Big South
High Point is the defending Big South regular-season champion, and in head coach Alan Huss’ 2nd year, they are looking to go back-to-back and finish the job by making the NCAA Tournament. The Panthers are 19-5 and find themselves in a battle for the top spot in the conference with UNC-Asheville. The two teams have a return engagement on Saturday, with the Panthers looking for a season split.
The Panthers are one of the most offensively efficient teams in the country. The score nearly 81 points per game and rank in the top 90 in every key offensive metric on KenPom. As good as things have been there is always room for improvement and senior guard Kezza Giffa says the Panthers, “Communication, that’s what we’ve been working on a lot, and also executing better, those have been the focused these past weeks.”
This is Huss’ first head coaching job at the Division I level, and Giffa says when describing his coach, “He’s honest but he won’t let guys take any shortcuts and keeps guys accountable.” Giffa knows for the Panthers to reach the next level they will need him to lead the way, saying, “I need to lead, talk and lead by example. I feel that because I am the point guard if I do those typess of things, guys will follow along.”
McNeese State Cowboys 17-6, 11-1 in Southland
Will Wade built a juggernaut down in Louisiana at McNeese State, and he did so in a hurry. In his first season, all the Cowboys did was win 30 games and go 17-1 in the Southland. This season they are 16-6, have a 10 -1 conference record, have won 12 of their last 13, and have a 3-game cushion as the Southland leader. It goes without saying that the Cowboys are really good, but they’re good because they are efficient at both ends of the floor, ranking in the top 70 in offensive and defensive efficiencies. They do other things well, especially on the defensive end, like being No. 66 in defensive effective field goal percentage, turning teams over to the tune of 15 per game that leads to 19 points, and grabbing their own rebounds as the 38th best team in offensive rebounding percentage.
They have three guys that average double figures, with Javohn Garcia and Sincere Parker leading the way with forward Christian Shumate at 10.3 points and six rebounds just behind. Add DJ Richards, Jr. Joe Charles and Quadir Copeland who all net at least nine points and that is a pretty potent sextuplet. As if that wasn’t scary enough, there is hope that senior Alyn Breed will be back after suffering a knee injury in the second game oAdd DJ Richards, Jr., Joe Charles, and Quadir Copeland, who all net at least nine points, and that is a pretty potent sextuplet.f the year. All he did in two games was open the year with 17 points against South Dakota State and 18 more in an eight-point loss to Alabama. Add Breed to this mix and the Cowboys become one of those teams nobody wants to face if they win the Southland.
Samford Bulldogs 18-5, 8-2 in Southern Conference
Bucky ball is alive and well again this season at Samford with the Bulldogs already at 18-5, Buckyball coming off a 29-2 campaign last season under Bucky McMillan. Samford likes to play a frenetic style of hoops, but it’s not wild and out of control; it’s more like controlled chaos. His players have taken very well to that chaos, winning at least 21 games in the last four seasons (assuming they pass that mark this year). That style leads to over 83 points per game with four players averaging double figures headlined by Jaden Brownell and Trey Fort,, averaging about 14 per game and shooting 40% deep on a team that shoots 37.6% from beyond the arc.
It isn’t just their proficiency from deep that makes them successful. Yes, they are one of the best teams in the country when it comes to shooting the long ball, but inside the arc, they also shoot nearly 57%, which is good because 40% of their points come from three-pointers while just 44% come inside the arc. Anytime Samford is scoring inside the arc, it makes them that much tougher to beat. Coming off of Saturday’s action, the Bulldogs are 8-2 in the SoCon and in a battle with UNC-Greensboro and Chattanooga, both of whom they beat earlier in the year.
UC-Irvine Anteaters 20-3, 10-1 in Big West
In his 14 years at UC-Irvine, Russell Turner has won seven Big West regular season titles with an eye towards an eighth. The Anteaters are 20-3 after their win over UC Davis on Saturday. The No. 1 reason it’s tough to beat the Anteaters is pretty simple, you can’t score against them. They’ve only allowed over 70 points five times this season and two of those were overtime wins. They also have a top-10 team in defensive efficiency, effective field goal percentage defense and two-point defense.
When asked about what makes Turner such a successful coach, senior star Devin Tillis says, ”I feel like he gets the best out of all of us, for me he’s been able to make me a better basketball player and honestly a better person.” Their ability to win on the road is also a big key for them. They have nine road wins so far this season and Tillis says the key to winning on the road is, “The biggest key for us is just staying together, not deviating from the gameplan and being able to excel in everybody’s role.”
They also know in the Big West that playing in the NCAA Tournament means winning the conference tournament, and Tillis says for that to happen, “It’s going to sound cliché but we need to keep winning, that’s the biggest thing.”
UC-San Diego Tritons 18-4, 8-2 in Big West
In their first year of eligibility for the NCAA Tournament, the UC San Diego Tritons find themselves in the hunt for the Big West title. At one point this season, the Tritons had one of the nation’s longest winning streaks at 12 before UC-Irvine snapped it in the most anticipated Big West game in decades. Despite the loss, Eric Olen’s team holds a win over Utah State and has a NET ranking in the top 50, leaving them in a position to at least be in the at-large conversation depending on how the rest of the season goes with the huge return engagement with UC-Irvine happening on Saturday.
The Tritons have reached their 18-4 mark by being efficient all over the floor. They are in the top 70 in both offensive and defensive efficiencies, scoring just under 80 points per game and surrendering 62. Offensively, they have been led by seniors Tyler McGhie and Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones, who netted over 36 points per game. As a team, they have been very good inside the arc, shooting 56% and holding opponents to 48%. They make their hay when it comes to turnover,s committing just nine per gam, forcing over 1,4 and gaining 21 points off of those turnovers. They gain this advantage by having a top-10 steal percentage and being the toughest team in the country to take the ball away from. They average nearly 11 steals per game and give away an average of 4.8 per contest.