A-10/ACC Basketball Update 2.17.25

The last week was extremely revealing for a lot of teams around the college basketball landscape. Miami (Florida) (we actually have to designate the difference now) proved themselves to be a surefire NCAA Tournament team with their two biggest wins of the season, home for North Carolina and at NC State. George Mason stumbled through an 0-2 week and fell off the bubble entirely. Virginia Tech beat Clemson and lost to Florida State to remain a confusing mess (for themselves, and for VCU, who needs them to be a quality win).

That all makes this the time of the season in which viewing priorities should begin to shift. All of a sudden, fighting for an NCAA Tournament bid or a double bye is far more important than whatever is happening for good teams who may just be waiting for March. That same fatigue is a week to ten days away from hitting fans too. With March around the corner, games without postseason weight will begin to feel irrelevant, regardless of the participates.

With that in mind, this week's Three will actually be a set of six, specifically the six games left in each conference to circle on the calendar for the final two and half weeks of the season, since I will still do a full preview of the weeknight game to watch.

Atlantic Ten

Six Remaining Games To Watch:

-VCU at #18 Saint Louis, 2/20 at 7:00 on ESPN2: The top two teams in the A-10 meet in the best game nationwide this Friday night, with VCU desperately needing their first Q1 win of the season if they hope to get an at-large bid. In the first matchup, the Rams took the lead with 2:30 to go, but SLU closed out their victory on a 10-0 run.

-Duquesne at Dayton, 2/21 at 2:00 on ESPN+: The first of a series of games between the four double bye contenders is also the last time Dayton will be favored in their own building (Saint Louis and VCU last two opponents). Duquesne has lost twelve straight road games in this rivalry, with the Dukes last win in UD Arena coming with TJ McConnell (7 assists) still on the team in 2012.

-George Mason at VCU, 3/3 at 7:00 on CBSSN: A potential A-10 semifinal preview, where VCU will look to avenge their other conference loss from January. The Rams could walk into the game trying to keep their at-large hopes and A-10 regular season title hopes alive, but they need to slow down the Patriots top three guards, who inflicted VCU's worst defense performance (86 points) of conference play.

-St. Joe's at Davidson, 3/4 at 7:00 on ESPN+: Another crucial double bye game, with Davidson currently being the only contender to hold a tiebreaker over St. Joe's. Neither team could find an offensive rhythm when they met in early January, but that was before the breakouts for St. Joe's Derek Simpson and Davidson's Parker Friedrichsen.

-Rhode Island at Fordham, 3/7 at 2:00 on ESPN+: After Saturday's bizarre game, in which Rhode Island lost in overtime after failing to make a field goal in the final 10:08, both Rams occupy the last two single byes in the A-10 standings. If either Richmond or St. Bonaventure can make a charge in the final weeks, this game might be winner take all to avoid the opening round.

-#18 Saint Louis at George Mason, 3/7 at 4:00 on USA: The only game on this list that isn't a rematch, SLU could be going for a perfect A-10 season, or simply need a win to fend off VCU for the A-10 title. George Mason will be looking to not only play spoiler, but to send a message to the rest of the conference that they are prime contenders a few days before the A-10 Tournament.

Game Of The Week: Duquesne 78, St. Bonaventure 73

Duquesne gets revenge after a brutal defensive performance in January, although with plenty of bumps along the way. After falling behind by 18 in the first half, St. Bonaventure charged back to take the lead late, but crunch time offensive problems re-emerged. After a Joe Grahovac three put the Bonnies out in front again, Duquesne closed out the final 2:18 on a 7-0 run, with Jimmie Williams hitting one of the dagger shots of the season.

Statline Of The Week: Luke Hunger (George Washington): 31 points (10-14 fg), 10 rebounds in 72-53 win over George Mason

Weeknight Game To Watch: George Washington at VCU, Tuesday at 8:00 on CBSSN

VCU is scalding hot amidst a nine game winning streak, while George Washington just turned the tide on a 1-6 run with back-to-back wins last week. For entertainment purposes, hopefully we will get a clash of star centers in VCU's Lazar Djokovic and GW's Rafael Castro, if the latter is able to return from injury. Regardless of Castro's presence, the Revolutionaries will pose an interesting test to what had long been a below average VCU defensive rebounding unit, that is suddenly tops in the A-10. Look out for a pair of guards coming off of fantastic weeks, VCU's Nyk Lewis and GW's Jean Aranguren will both try to keep building momentum.

Sickos Game To Watch: St. Bonaventure at Richmond, Saturday at 6:00 on ESPN+

This is quietly a very important game for a pair of teams trying to escape the bottom four, as the winner will still be on the outside looking in for an A-10 Tournament bye, regardless of results elsewhere. Richmond had its best offensive performance of A-10 play when the two met in early January, as Will Johnston and AJ Lopez outscored the Bonnies' star duo of Frank Mitchell and Buddy Simmons 43-32. This time around, St. Bonaventure will hope for better results from deep, after they wisely took a season high 28 attempts against the Spiders pitiful arc defense, but made just 8.

Last week's 3 Bid League podcast features a mailbag opening, hitting on topics around the A-10. This week's episode will air on Wednesday, featuring amonst other topics, an interview with Duquesne guard Tarence Guinyard.

ACC

Six Remaining Games To Watch:

-#1 Michigan vs #3 Duke (Washington DC), 2/21 at 6:30 on ESPN: A fantastically scheduled non-conference battle between college basketball's two best defenses, this is the best matchup outside of the Big 12 between New Year's and the Final Four. Cameron Boozer against Michigan's frontline and Elliot Cadeau playing Duke again, grab the popcorn.

-SMU at California, 2/25 at 10:00 on ACCN: This is a significant bubble game, with SMU quickly drifting towards the cutline and Cal running out of opportunities after both lost to Syracuse last week. For the Golden Bears, this is likely the last chance for a needle moving win before the ACC Tournament. Plus, the clash of these two lightning quick backcourts will just be fun.

-#14 Virginia at #3 Duke, 2/28 at Noon on ESPN: The only matchup between the conference's top two teams and the last impediment to Duke winning another ACC regular season title. Like the Saturday before, the Blue Devils will run into an elite defensive frontcourt that will really challenge their guards to step up.

-Clemson at #16 North Carolina, 3/3 at 7:00 on TV TBD: With Caleb Wilson's status in doubt the rest of the season due to a fractured hand, this game all of sudden becomes a serious physical challenge for UNC's frontcourt. This is the best chance they will get to prove that they can continue to beat quality opponents sans Wilson, while Clemson needs a Q1A win to keep themselves from slipping into the 7/8/9 seed range.

-Virginia Tech at #14 Virginia, 3/7 at 12:30 on CW: These two opened conference play with Virginia Tech winning a 3OT epic, which remains a critical part of their at-large resume. If the Hokies can complete the sweep in Charlottesville, those two victories may single handedly get them into the Tournament. For Virginia, they could have a chance at the ACC regular season title, but at the very least, rivalry revenge will be on the mind.

-SMU at Florida State, 3/7 at 2:00 on ACCN: The Seminoles have all of a sudden started to play good basketball, turning around a 2-10 stretch with a 5-2 run in which they posted a bad loss on the resume of every ACC bubble team except SMU (who they lost to by 3). The Mustangs will have to hold on for dear life in this one, knowing that it could knock them to the wrong side of the cutline.

Game Of The Week: Miami 77, NC State 76

The Hurricanes' press came up huge to cap off the week that likely sealed Miami's at-large bid. Down seven and with the clock ticking under a minute, Miami started the work with an old fashioned three point play from Malik Reneau. A steal off the ensuing inbounds and an offensive rebound led to a Tru Washington layup. After another Hurricanes' steal, the two teams traded off missed 1-and-1 foul shots, before Darrion Williams caught Washington's hand trying to close out on an open three. Washington made all three free throws to finish off Miami's best win of the season.

Statline Of The Week: Mikal Brown Jr (Louisville): 45 points* (10-16 3pt), 9 rebounds in 118-77 win over NC State. *Tied school record

Weeknight Game To Watch: Virginia Tech at Miami, Tuesday at 8:00 on ACCN

Fresh off of a brutal loss to Florida State, Virginia Tech is once again desperate for a quality win (like the one they just got at Clemson last week and failed to follow up). After their own fantastic 2-0 week, Miami now qualifies as such, and the Hokies may be catching them while the Hurricanes are coming down from that high. The clash of power forwards should be scintillating, and if Miami's ground bound Malik Reneau against Virginia Tech's high flyer Toubi Lawal wasn't good enough as a fire and ice battle, foul trouble could easily come into play for both. Overall, the Hokies struggling interior defense will really be put to the test in this one.

Sickos Game To Watch: Stanford at California, Saturday at 6:00 on ACCN

Stick this on the second screen next to Duke-Michigan and try to not to think about how weird it is that this is an ACC game. In January, Cal picked up a dominant road victory over the Cardinal to revive bubble hopes that seemed to be fading away at the time. This edition may well be an NCAA Tournament elimination game, with both sides needing to finish the season pretty close to perfect (especially Stanford) to have realistic at-large hopes. Last time around, Stanford star Ebuka Okorie was held to a season worst 1-16 from the field, but coach Kyle Smith will almost certainly have adjustments at the ready. How will Cal adapt back?

Last week's Up The Coasts podcast dove into the important results of the prior week. The show will return later this week with team deep dives.