After last night's quarterfinal games, it would be somewhat shocking if the SEC Tournament champions didn’t come from this semifinal matchup. Both teams put up huge offensive numbers in decisive wins.
Alabama destroyed an injury-laden Kentucky team 99-70. The Tide held one of the most prolific three-point shooting teams to only five made from deep, the second-worst three-point shooting game of Kentucky's season. Alabama got double-digit offensive performances from five different players in the win, but freshman Labaron Philon set the pace, scoring 21 points for the Tide.
Following its impressive offensive performance in the quarterfinals against Missouri, Florida looks like it's the team to beat. The Gators got out to a quick lead and never really looked back. For most of the first half, it seemed like Florida couldn’t miss a shot, and while the Gator regressed a little, they still made an incredible 61.8 percent from the floor in the 95-81 win.
Alabama has been one of the top teams all season, but with how great Florida has looked recently it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Gators took home the tournament title, but they will need to make it out of the semifinals first. It’s been a while since Florida has finished atop the SEC. Is this the team that finally does it?
How to watch Alabama vs Florida
- Date: Saturday, March 15
- Time: 3:30 pm ET
- Venue: Bridgestone Arena
- How to Watch (TV): ESPN
- Steaming: fubo TV
- Alabama record: 25-7
- Florida record: 28-4
Alabama vs Florida odds, spread, and total
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook
Money line:
- Alabama +136
- Florida -164
Spread:
- Alabama +3.5 (-110)
- Florida -3.5 (-110)
Total:
- 174.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
Alabama injury report
- Latrell Wrightsell Jr - Out (achilles)
- Houston Mallette - Out (ankle)
- Derrion Reid - Questionable (leg)
Florida injury report
- Sam Alexis - Out (ankle)
Alabama and Florida series history
- Alabama all-time record vs Florida 79-73
Alabama vs Florida prediction
It’s going to take an all-out defensive effort to slow down either of these offenses. Alabama leads the country with 91.4 points per game, but Florida isn’t too far behind, averaging 84.8. Both teams like to push the pace and are lethal from behind the three-point arc. Alabama averages 10.4 made threes this season to lead the conference, while averages 9.9.
Mark Sears (19.0 ppg) and Grant Nelson (11.9 ppg) have turned into a great one-two punch for the Tide, though the offensive firepower extends well beyond them. At any moment, Alabama has two or three other players that can score a bunch of points quickly, which is why the Tide are so difficult to defeat. Alabama’s offense success extends well beyond its ability to make threes. The Tide have also dominated at the rim. This season, Alabama is averaging 39 points in the paint, which also leads the SEC. The biggest concern for Alabama this season has been its defense - the Tide give up nearly 81 points per game. In most of the games Alabama lost this season, the offense wasn’t the problem the defense was. Which is why this matchup with Florida is concerning for Nate Oats and the Tide.
Florida, much like Alabama, has found success scoring both inside and out. Walter Clayton Jr (17.3 ppg) has seemingly unlimited range and is hitting an impressive 37 percent from deep. Alijah Martin (14.6 ppg) and Will Richard (13.4 ppg) are right there with Clayton from deep. Both senior guards are hitting better than 35 percent from behind the arc, forcing defenses to choose to either apply extra pressure on the perimeter or have this Florida trio bury you from deep. Florida is almost as good as Alabama when it comes to scoring in the paint. The Gators are second in the SEC with 37.6 per game. The biggest advantage Florida has in this matchup is its defense. While Alabama did put up 94 points in its previous matchup with Florida, the Gators have been one of the better defenses in the country all season. The Gators are holdings opponents to under 40 percent from the floor and under 30 percent from three.
If Alabama’s defense was even mediocre it would make things a little more difficult. The Tide’s offense can make up for nearly all of their defensive woes, but that might not be good enough against a Florida offense that can go shot-for-shot with Alabama. Florida has been playing excellent basketball all season, and the fact that it has a solid defense puts the Gators over the top. We should see another high-scoring game between these two teams, but Florida should walk away with the win - reaching the SEC Tournament finals.