Another great SEC matchup sees Alabama at Kentucky in a battle of Top 10 squads; will the Wildcats defend their home court or can the Crimson Tide get another premier victory?
TV schedule: Saturday, January 18, 12:00 pm ET. ESPN
Arena: Rupp Arena in Lexington, Kentucky
Already in fantastic shape this season, Alabama (14-3) hopes to keep humming along with their trip to Lexington. Even after this week’s tough home loss against Ole Miss, the Crimson Tide still boast one of the nation’s top teams and are looking for a major bounce back. This team has already won at North Carolina and Texas A&M, but how intimidated will they be in Lexington?
The Crimson Tide lean heavily on star guard Mark Sears (18.6 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 4.6 apg), who’s been a major playmaker these last few seasons and is a major part of this elite offense. You’ll also see steady production from Grant Nelson (12.0 ppg, 8.6 rpg), the North Dakota State transfer who’s a great scorer and rebounder and the backbone of the frontcourt. Those two senior contributors aren’t guiding the ship alone, as freshman Labaron Philon (11.4 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 3.8 apg) has lived up to his preseason billing.
Alabama entered the week at #4 in the AP Top 25, though that number will change following this week’s loss to the Rebels. They’re sitting 9th in KenPom and 8th in the NET ratings, while still putting up some pretty impressive numbers on offense. No team in the nation scores more points per game than the Crimson Tide, though this team did have their worst performance of the season on Tuesday.
On the other side, Kentucky (14-3) has put their best foot forward in a productive first season under Mark Pope’s leadership. The Wildcats also boast one of the nation’s top offenses and have already put together a fantastic resume of wins. This team has already beaten Duke, Gonzaga, Louisville, Florida, and most recently Texas A&M and are forty minutes from another standout win.
A roster built with transfers has shined throughout the first two months of this season, with former Oklahoma guard Otega Oweh (15.4 ppg, 4.0 rpg) standing out among the rest. The Wildcats are getting great contributions both on offense and defense from Lamont Butler (13.4 ppg, 4.7 apg), a point guard who’s a great shooter and defender. Additionally, the contributions of sharpshooter Koby Brea (11.3 ppg, 3.1 rpg) cannot be ignored, as the Dayton transfer has made nearly 47% of his 3-pointers this year.
These Wildcats are #8 in the AP Top 25 but sit just 16th in KenPom and 12th in the NET rankings. Regardless, Kentucky is 2nd in the nation in offensive efficiency and 3rd in points per game, with great overall offensive production all season long. They’ve had some defensive shortcomings, but have scored almost at will even in SEC play aside from that troubling loss to Georgia just over a week ago.
Two weeks ago, Kentucky won a game at home over Florida in which both teams hit 100 points in regulation. This contest could match that level of production and offensive fireworks. The Crimson Tide will have the best player on the court in Sears, but you can’t ignore the cohesion of the Wildcats’ offense, with weapons up and down this rotation. If someone like Brea, Butler, or Jaxson Robinson goes off, then Alabama’s defense is in for a long day.
Could this matchup actually surprise us and be more of a defensive struggle? Anything is possible, but Kentucky actually plays at a faster pace than Florida and it all comes down to execution. Whichever team executes their offense better will have the upper hand, and that means someone beyond the top options really stands out. We’re giving Kentucky the edge at home, even with the Crimson Tide hungry for a bounce-back performance, but don’t be surprised if this comes down to the wire.
Prediction: Kentucky 98, Alabama 95