Welcome, Friends. Many of you may have followed our work on other platforms. We are thrilled to join the Busting Brackets team. Our house rules will all still apply. We’ll help break down the crazy complexity of college basketball metrics while celebrating the wonderful sport that it is.
As we fearlessly push towards March Madness, we'll provide insight for each conference & each team in or near the bracket—from locks to the bubble—we have you covered. Today, we'll focus on the Big Ten. Let’s jump in, shall we?
A friendly reminder of our evaluation process:
- A 'lock' = Absolutely positively making the NCAA Tournament. While a locked team's seed can fluctuate, they are going dancing.
- All efficiency rankings are utilized from: https://kenpom.com/
- NET = NCAA-sponsored ranking system intended to help evaluate a team's resume.
- WAB = Wins Above Bubble - Result based metric used to compare a team's performance to how a traditional bubble team would perform with a similar schedule.
BIG TEN
Ok, let's get this straight. Purdue (even in their very successful season) is having a hard time guarding. Wisconsin is a scoring machine. UCLA can shoot. Michigan, who very well might win the league title, acquired their best player from Yale. Oregon was amazing, and then terrible, and now decent. Nebraska lost 6 games in a row and is still going to somehow make the NCAA tournament? Indiana spent a fortune on their roster during the offseason and is on the outside looking in? So yeah, the league is playing out exactly how all the experts anticipated in November.
Locks: Wisconsin, Purdue, Michigan, Michigan State, UCLA & Maryland
Almost Locks: Illinois & Oregon
Looking Good: Nebraska
Bubble: Ohio State
Not Looking So Good: Indiana & USC
Wisconsin ( 20-5, NET 12, WAB 8 ) - Projected 2 Seed
John Tonje has spent six, yes six years in college. A winding road that started at Colorado St, to a struggling Missouri team last year, to Madison. And he's used all the experience and old man wisdom (and strength) to become the front-runner for Big 10 Player of the Year. Goodness, he's been fantastic. 19pts/gm and shooting 92% at the free throw line. He's not alone, Badgers lead the nation in FT shooting percentage at 84%.
Purdue ( 19-7, NET 13, WAB 9 ) - Projected 3 Seed
Each year at the Big Ten preseason media day, we walk away thinking the same thing: Matt Painter is the most impressive, knowledgeable, self-aware coach we've ever come across. He finally had the monkey lifted off his back with a run to the National Championship game last year. Braden Smith is a generationally good passer this season (9 assists/gm) & Trey Kaufman-Renn is a relentlessly productive player in all facets (19pts, 6 rebs/gm). The Boilers aren't nearly as good defensively as they have been in recent years, but it's been masked by their elite offense (7th nationally).
Michigan ( 20-5, NET 18, WAB 14 ) - Projected 3 Seed
Last year a Yale forward named Danny Wolf scored 13pts in a Cinderella NCAA Tournament win vs. the 4th-seeded Auburn Tigers. That was an ironic prelude into this new home at Michigan where he averages 13pts/gm and leads a well-balanced Wolverines squad. Their resume already includes Quad 1A wins over Purdue (H), Wisconsin (A) & UCLA (A). Ohio State transfer Roddy Gayle is their x-factor, and he has traditionally played well down the stretch in March.
Michigan State ( 20-5, NET 21, WAB 16 ) - Projected 4 Seed
Tom Izzo's Spartans are smart, tough & experienced. What's not to like? Well, they can't shoot from 3pt land. Like at all. 354th (out of 364) in the nation in 3pt shooting. It's truly their only flaw. Their relentlessness and rebounding help them overcome their deficiency in shooting, but it takes four wins to make a Final Four - and at some point in one of those games they are going to need to hit shots from a long distance to make the promised land in San Antonio.
UCLA ( 19-7, NET 24, WAB 21 ) - Projected 6 Seed
It all tracks. Mick Cronin comes from the Rick Pitino coaching tree. Tenacity, defense & really sharp suits. Last year the Bruins were 324th in effective field goal percentage, and even though they played hard that equated to a 16-17 season. Enter Kobe Johnson (transfer from rival USC - gasp!) & Tyler Bilodeau (Oregon St. transfer) and boom - UCLA can kinda score. Their defense keeps them in games against anyone in the country, and when they make shots they are very dangerous.
Maryland ( 20-6, NET 16, WAB 23 ) – Projected 6 Seed
The more you study Maryland, the more you realize that they just might be the most complete team in the Big Ten. The Terps rank in the top 20 in both offensive & defensive efficiencies per Ken Pom. Kevin Willard’s team has nothing even close to a glaring weakness statistically. A solid blend of experience with senior leader Julian Reese (14pts/gm & 9 reb/gm) & star Freshman Derik Queen (16pts/gm & 9 reb/gm). Their tournament resume has taken some time to blossom, primarily due to their weak 327th non-conference strength of schedule – but their 10-5 Big Ten record with 6 Quad 1 wins supersedes any non-conference concerns.
Illinois ( 17-9, NET 18, WAB 32 ) - Projected 6 Seed
Yes, Illinois is incredibly talented. Yes, Brad Underwood is a highly regarded coach. But part of the problem with reloading the vast majority of your roster each season is the lack of consistency. And while we can't argue with the success Underwood has had, we often wonder why the Illini fail to hit their ceiling each year. They always seem to look better than their results ultimately prove to be. There's still time to make this a special season, and it's by no means a down year (they are dancing), but when we watch them we keep expecting more.....
Oregon ( 18-8, NET 33, WAB 24 ) – Projected 8 Seed
The Ducks began the season with 8-10 seed expectations, but incredible wins over Texas A&M, San Deigo State & the headliner Alabama led them to a 12-1 start - and sniffing around the 2 seed line. But water often finds its level, especially with a team that at times has struggled to shoot the ball well. The Ducks lost 6 of 7 in late January - early February plummeting down the seed list. But alas, they've rebounded with a few wins, they are so close to a lock, and lookie here: right around an 8 seed. A roller coaster of emotion and ultimately a trip to the dance.
Nebraska ( 17-9, NET 46, WAB 38 ) – Projected 9 Seed
The Cornhuskers won't win the league, they might not finish in the top half - but Fred Hoiberg just might get my vote for Big Ten coach of the year. When you are guiding a team in this demanding league, and you lose 6 games in a row, in the transfer portal era - it's very easy for players to pack it in. The Huskers won their first game in January, lost the next 6, and since have won 5 of 6. They are gritty & resilient and led by one of the nation's most underrated players in 5th year Senior star Brice Williams (please do yourself a favor and watch him play).
Ohio State ( 15-11, NET 30, WAB 40 ) – Projected 10 Seed
The NCAA Tournament Selection Committee may change names and faces each year, but there has been one constant: there is an unwritten rule that you need to be a minimum of 4 games over .500 to receive a bid. Yes, there are exceptions (shoutout to the 2001, 16-14 Georgia team that was selected - but it did own the nation's top SOS) And so here we are with the Buckeyes. A team that undoubtedly is one of the nation's 46 best teams, but has been snake bitten by excruciating close losses this year:
- 70-68 at Wisconsin, 86-83 vs. Michigan, 73-71 vs. Oregon, 77-76 vs. Indiana & 91-90 vs. Pitt
Their metrics are solid, and their strength of schedule is excellent - 9th nationally. They have fantastic wins at Purdue & Kentucky (N) vs. Maryland. It's truly math at this point. They are 15-11 with five games to play. A 3-2 finish moves them to 18-13 & even with a first-round Big Ten tournament loss they stay at the magic number of four games over .500 and would receive a bid. A 2-3 finish would require multiple wins in Indianapolis, and the committee has proven they don't always give full credit for championship week wins. It's a complicated resume, so very close to a really good season and lock status, but now potentially staring at the wrong side of the bubble four weeks from now.
Indiana ( 15-11, NET 57, WAB 52 ) – Projected Next 4 Out
Lost in the constant angst over head coach Mike Woodson (who will resign following the season) has been a Hoosier team that has still somehow hung around the bubble. In part, this year's bubble is the weakest in a decade. The good for IU: Zero losses outside of Quad 1, and road wins at Michigan State & Ohio State. The bad: 2-11 in Quad 1 and already 11 losses. It's a long shot for sure, and the season has been an incredible disappointment up to this point considering their very talented (and expensive roster) - but maybe just maybe there's an improbable run left for Woodson?
USC (14-11, NET 67, WAB 68 ) – Projected 10th - 12th Team Out
Eric Musselman is a fantastic basketball coach. He's led several programs to big-time NCAA Tournament wins, and he was one of the very first coaches to embrace the transfer portal truly. But, his move from Arkansas to USC created the need for an entirely rebuilt roster. And even with all his experience in roster construction, putting together a roster in this era is a bit like trying to put a puzzle together without any edge pieces. You have an idea of where things will fit, but until you actually have to put it all together, you just don't know.
That's been the case for USC. A skilled and athletic roster, but one that hasn't quite gotten the pieces to fit together quite right. They hang around the bubble due to their two top-tier wins: at Illinois & vs. Michigan St. They finish with 4 of 6 on the road, so it's not going to be easy for the Muss Buss.