It is March 2. The calendar says the regular season has one week left for most power conferences. The tone says we are already in tournament mode.
The latest AP Top 25 did not bring drama at the top. It brought separation.
Duke Blue Devils, Arizona Wildcats and Michigan Wolverines remain 1-2-3. All three are 27-2. All three look like No. 1 seeds. The only real debate is which one ends up as the No. 1 overall seed on Selection Sunday.
With just days left before conference tournaments begin in earnest, every possession now feels connected to seeding, matchups and legacy.
Duke still owns the top line
Duke collected 55 of 59 first-place votes and continues to check every box.
Freshman star Cameron Boozer has been central to that consistency. He rebounds in traffic, scores without forcing shots and defends multiple positions. In tight games, he does not look like a freshman. He looks comfortable.
Duke’s resume is clean. High-end wins. Limited bad losses. Strong predictive metrics. They also hold the head-to-head edge over Michigan.
If the season ended today, there would be a strong argument for Duke as the No. 1 overall seed.
Arizona and Michigan are right on their heels
Arizona’s first season in the Big 12 has ended with at least a share of the regular-season title. That matters. The Big 12 is not forgiving, and the Wildcats handled it.
Michigan locked up the Big Ten outright and has been dominant in league play. The Wolverines sit near the top of every major resume ranking and are top tier in NET, KenPom and BPI.
All three teams are 27-2. All three have arguments. With one week left, the margins are razor thin.
The fourth No. 1 seed is still unsettled
UConn Huskies climbed to No. 4. Florida Gators moved to No. 5 and might be playing the best basketball in the country right now.
Florida has won nine straight and looks nothing like the group that started 5-4. The Gators defend with more edge and close games with confidence.
UConn owns the head-to-head win from December. Florida owns the momentum and the improving resume.
Behind them, Iowa State Cyclones and Houston Cougars remain firmly in the 2-seed conversation. Houston in particular has avoided bad losses and continues to rate extremely well in predictive systems.
The fight for that final No. 1 seed is not finished.
Michigan State, Texas Tech and Nebraska are peaking
Michigan State Spartans jumped into the top 10 at No. 8. Jeremy Fears Jr. is averaging 9.1 assists per game and controlling tempo at a high level. Tom Izzo’s teams always seem to find another gear this time of year.
Texas Tech Red Raiders made the biggest move of the week, climbing to No. 10. Their resume includes wins over Duke, Houston, Arizona and Iowa State. That is elite company.
Nebraska Cornhuskers sit at 25-4, one of the best seasons in program history. They do not just win at home. They travel well and defend.
Those three feel like dangerous 2 or 3 seeds depending on how the final week plays out.
Blue blood pressure and middle-tier chaos
Kansas Jayhawks are still inside the top 15 but have taken uneven losses. North Carolina Tar Heels are unbeaten at home and quietly stacking wins. Alabama Crimson Tide and Illinois Fighting Illini both own multiple quality wins and sit squarely in the 2 and 3 seed debate.
Purdue Boilermakers dropped seven spots after back-to-back losses, showing how volatile this final stretch can be.
The 6 through 14 range of this poll could shuffle again before the week ends.
The unbeaten story that will not go away
Miami (Ohio) RedHawks are 29-0 and ranked No. 19.
Their resume does not carry the same weight as the power conference heavyweights. They have yet to play a Quad 1 game. Predictive metrics remain skeptical.
But it is the final week of the regular season and they have not lost.
In March, that is a headline all by itself.
AP Top 25 — March 2, 2026
- Duke Blue Devils (27-2)
- Arizona Wildcats (27-2)
- Michigan Wolverines (27-2)
- UConn Huskies (27-3)
- Florida Gators (23-6)
- Iowa State Cyclones (24-5)
- Houston Cougars (24-5)
- Michigan State Spartans (24-5)
- Nebraska Cornhuskers (25-4)
- Texas Tech Red Raiders (22-7)
- Illinois Fighting Illini (22-7)
- Gonzaga Bulldogs (28-3)
- Virginia Cavaliers (25-4)
- Kansas Jayhawks (21-8)
- Purdue Boilermakers (22-7)
- Alabama Crimson Tide (22-7)
- North Carolina Tar Heels (23-6)
- St. John's Red Storm (23-6)
- Miami (Ohio) RedHawks (29-0)
- Arkansas Razorbacks (21-8)
- Saint Mary's Gaels (27-4)
- Miami Hurricanes (23-6)
- Tennessee Volunteers (20-9)
- Vanderbilt Commodores (22-7)
- Saint Louis Billikens (26-3)
One week left.
Then the real sorting begins.