Arch Madness 2026 Preview: Belmont Leads Deepest Missouri Valley Bracket in Years

It is hard to script a better setup for the 50th edition of Arch Madness.

The regular season delivered a clear champion, four 20-win teams, multiple tie-breakers decided by NET rankings, and a middle tier capable of ruining anyone’s weekend. Now the Missouri Valley Conference men's basketball tournament returns to the Enterprise Center in St. Louis from March 5–8 with one NCAA Tournament bid on the line.

The numbers are strong. The matchups are better. And there is no easy path.

Final 2025-26 Regular Season Standings

Here’s how the league finished:

1. Belmont Bruins — 16-4 (26-5 overall)
2. Bradley Braves — 13-7 (20-11 overall)
3. Illinois State Redbirds — 12-8 (20-11 overall)
4. Murray State Racers — 12-8 (20-11 overall)
5. UIC Flames — 12-8 (17-14 overall)
6. Northern Iowa Panthers — 11-9 (19-12 overall)
7. Valparaiso Beacons — 11-9 (17-14 overall)
8. Southern Illinois Salukis — 10-10 (16-15 overall)
9. Drake Bulldogs — 6-14 (12-19 overall)
10. Indiana State Sycamores — 4-16 (11-20 overall)
11. Evansville Purple Aces — 3-17 (7-24 overall)

Illinois State, Murray State and UIC tied at 12-8. NET rankings broke that tie, giving Illinois State the No. 3 seed. Northern Iowa and Valparaiso also split at 11-9, with UNI earning the higher seed via NET.

Four 20-win teams entering Arch Madness. That has only happened three times in league history.

The 2026 Arch Madness Bracket & Schedule

All games at Enterprise Center (All times Central)

Thursday, March 5

• 3:30 p.m. — #8 Southern Illinois vs. #9 Drake
• 6:00 p.m. — #7 Valparaiso vs. #10 Indiana State
• 8:30 p.m. — #6 Northern Iowa vs. #11 Evansville

Friday, March 6

• 12:00 p.m. — #1 Belmont vs. Winner Game 1
• 2:30 p.m. — #4 Murray State vs. #5 UIC
• 6:00 p.m. — #2 Bradley vs. Winner Game 2
• 8:30 p.m. — #3 Illinois State vs. Winner Game 3

Saturday, March 7

• 2:30 p.m. — Semifinal (Belmont/Murray State side)
• 5:00 p.m. — Semifinal (Bradley/Illinois State side)

Sunday, March 8

• 11:00 a.m. — Championship Game

No team in MVC history has won four games in four days to capture the title. If you start Thursday, you are climbing a mountain.

Belmont: The Clear Favorite on Paper

Belmont did not sneak into the No. 1 seed. They earned it.

They lead the conference in scoring at 84.0 points per game and own the best scoring margin at +11.5. They can run, they can shoot, and they rarely panic.

Tyler Lundblade averages 15.8 points and has made 112 threes. Sam Orme adds 12.5. Drew Scharnowski gives them interior presence and toughness.

Belmont scores in waves. The question is whether they can string together three defensive performances to match.

History says top seeds usually win here. But Arch Madness does not care about history.

Bradley and Illinois State: Built for March

Bradley is steady. They score 77.5 per game and defend well enough to close. Jaquan Johnson leads at 17.4 points per night, and Alex Huibregtse stretches defenses with 92 made threes.

Illinois State might be the most balanced team in the bracket. They allow just 68.3 points per game and own a +7.6 scoring margin. They are comfortable playing in the low 70s and winning ugly.

Neither team has to see Belmont until Sunday.

That matters.

Murray State: High Risk, High Reward

Murray State scores 83.5 per game, second in the league.

Javon Jackson averages 16.0 points. Roman Domon scores 14.1. Fredrick King adds 13.2.

They can score with anyone. The concern is defense. They allow 79.5 points per game, last in the conference. If their offense dips for five minutes, they can be in trouble.

If it doesn’t, they can blow open a semifinal quickly.

The Wildcards

Northern Iowa gives up just 61.1 points per game, the best defensive number in the league. If this tournament slows down, UNI becomes very dangerous.

Drake has the league’s leading scorer in Jalen Quinn at 19.4 points per game. One hot night from him changes everything.

Southern Illinois defends and drags games into half-court battles. That style wins in March.

What Will Decide Arch Madness?

• Three-point shooting swings
• Free throws in the final two minutes
• Guard play under pressure
• Defensive rebounding in the semifinals

• Belmont has the best offense.
• Northern Iowa has the best defense.
• Illinois State has the balance.
• Murray State has the firepower.
• Bradley has the toughness.

There is a favorite. There is not a guarantee.

And that is exactly why Arch Madness keeps delivering year after year.