With a matchup in the Sweet Sixteen, two programs with familiar pasts meet for only the sixth time in the last 20 years. For over 30 years, Arkansas and Texas Texas played multiple times a year as members of the Southwest Conference. Since the Razorbacks bolted for the SEC in 1991, these programs have played sparingly, with the Red Raiders being on the losing end of most of those games. The last time these two met on the hardwood was in the second round of the NCAA Tournament in 2021 - a game that Arkansas won 68-66.
Arkansas is the only double-digit seed to make the second weekend this year, so by default, the Razorbacks are this tournament's “Cinderella” team. The Hogs have already taken down two higher seeds - beating Kansas in the first round and then upsetting No. 2 seed St. John’s in the second. After a shaky start to conference play, most people doubted if the Razorbacks would even make the tournament. Still, first-year head coach John Calipari worked his magic turning around his team's season, making it to the Sweet Sixteen.
Grant McCasland has gotten the Red Raiders to the NCAA Tournament in both years of his tenure, though, he and Texas Tech would probably like to forget about its first-round exit last season at the hands of NC State. This season, Tech has made it past the first two rounds, winning both games by double-digits - first beating UNC-Wilmington and then taking down a tough Drake team. Texas Tech has found some tournament success in recent years, this is only the program's second Sweet Sixteen appearance since playing for the National Title in 2019.
How to watch Arkansas vs Texas Tech
- Date: Thursday, March 27
- Time: 10:09 pm ET
- Venue: Chase Center in San Francisco, California
- How to Watch (TV): TBS/truTV
- Steaming: fubo TV
- Arkansas record: 22-13
- Texas Tech record: 27-8
Arkansas vs Texas Tech odds, spread, and total
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook
Money line:
- Arkansas +202
- Texas Tech -250
Spread:
- Arkansas +5.5 (-104)
- Texas Tech -5.5 (-118)
Total:
- 147.5 (Over -105/Under -115)
Arkansas injury report
- Adou Thiero - Questionable
Texas Tech injury report
- Chance McMillian - Questionable
Arkansas and Texas Tech series history
- Arkansas all-time record vs Texas Tech: 39-40
Arkansas vs Texas Tech prediction
Arkansas’ interior defense versus Texas Tech’s JT Toppin could be the most intriguing battle in this matchup. One of the biggest reasons for the Hog's success in the NCAA Tournament has been their interior defense, especially blocking shots. On the season, the Razorbacks average 5.7 blocks per game, which is fourth best in the country. But, John Calipari’s squad has upped its game since the start of the tournament and has blocked 13 shots over their last two games. However, Texas Tech has one of the best young post players in the country in JT Toppin. Toppin has been unstoppable in the tournament, making an incredible 85 percent of his shots inside the three-point arc. Through two games, he’s averaging 18.5 points and 11.5 rebounds.
However, Arkansas won’t be able to focus solely on Toppin if it wants to win the game. While Toppin dominates the paint, the rest of the roster lights it up from deep. Texas Tech averages 10 made threes, with four different players making 1.5 threes or more per game - connecting on 37.1 percent of its shots from behind the arc.
Arkansas has been solid offensively over the past month, but with some rotation uncertainty, it’s hard to key in on the player that could do the most damage. Boogie Fland has been coming off the bench since his return at the start of the NCAA Tournament, and with Adou Thiero missing the past month, Johnell Davis (11.4 ppg) has stepped up his offensive game. It will be interesting to see what the offense looks like if Thiero plays. Though, regardless of who plays, Arkansas wants to get to the rim offensively. The Razorbacks haven’t been great from three, so most of the teams scoring is close to or at the rim - where the Hogs are making 54.4 percent this season.
Texas Tech has been a great defense team all season - allowing only 67.6 points per game. Teams don’t make many threes against the Red Raiders, only 31.9 percent per game. And scoring inside the three point arc isn’t much easier. Tech doesn’t block many shots, only three per game, opponents only managed to make 48.1 percent from two against McCasland’s defense. That kind of dominance is crucial in tournament play.
Arkansas is playing with a ton of confidence, but Texas Tech is better on both offense and defense. And with how great JT Toppin has been so far this tournament, the Razorbacks’ defense has a huge challenge ahead. The odds of the Hogs continuing their surprise run through the tournament are much higher if they can find a way to stop Toppin, but with how many different offensive weapons Tech has, it will be an uphill battle. And with the questions surrounding Arkansas’ rotation, it’s a little easier to pick the stable Red Raider’s defense.