It’s fair to say that the trajectory of Auburn basketball changed last offseason when Bruce Pearl opted to retire. After leading the Tigers to a pair of Final Four runs and a ton of general success, he left the program in the hands of his son, speeding up a succession process that many expected. The immediate question was about Steven’s potential to run an SEC program and if he was up to the task and we got a mixed answer in year one.
There were some rough moments early in the season and the Tigers certainly underachieved, but a 22-win campaign featured an NIT championship and it’s hard to argue with how the players rallied in the final weeks of the season. Still, Auburn falling short of the NCAA Tournament coming off that latest Final Four run was still a disappointment, though we’re far from calling this tenure cursed.
Work to do in year two
The real work is just getting started for Pearl, who’s fresh off his first full offseason as the Tigers’ head coach. Tasked with replacing a few important pieces, he’s landed a solid haul from the transfer portal and a few younger pieces as well with the hopes of getting Auburn back into SEC contention. That 11th place finish in his first season can’t become the new normal if this tenure is going to be successful.
After a shaky first season, Pearl is hoping that he’s pushed the right buttons this offseason and gotten a good mix of talent, though we’ll evaluate that as we run through the relevant players. We cannot ignore that Auburn returns multiple star guards from last season and is in better shape than many programs, but what does that mean in the long run? Have they made the right moves to get back into the NCAA Tournament field?
Projected Starters
Guard – Tahaad Pettiford (Junior)
The star guard for the Tigers is back for year three, as Pettiford looks to build on what’s already been a fantastic college career at Auburn. The former Top 30 prospect was the full-time starter last year, averaging 15.4 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 3.8 assists per game. He was a key piece on the Final Four team and was even more important last year and remains important for his explosiveness and playmaking ability in this backcourt.
Guard – Kevin Overton (Senior)
The other major returning weapon, Overton spent one year each at Drake and Texas Tech before hitting his groove with the Tigers. His junior year saw 14.1 points and 3.3 rebounds per game, making 41% of his 3-pointers and becoming increasingly important. The Oklahoma City native was actually NIT MVP and tracks to have an even bigger role in his second year with the Tigers and is probably still the best pure shooter on the team.
Forward – Thomas Dowd (Senior)
An important offseason addition, Dowd likely grabs significant minutes with the Tigers after three great years down at Troy. He really peaked last season with the Trojans, averaging 14.4 points and 10.1 rebounds per game while leading the Trojans into the Big Dance and winning Sun Belt Tournament MVP. We don’t expect him to average a double-double in the SEC, but he fits the mold of a great spread shooter who can grab boards and be effective all over the court.
Forward – Owen Freeman (Senior)
Last season was very disappointing for Freeman, who’s looking for new life as a senior with the Tigers. He was Big Ten Rookie of the Year and put up great numbers at Iowa, but just couldn’t find his footing last year at Creighton, putting up just 5.0 points and 4.0 rebounds per game. When at this best, Freeman is known for his skill and strength inside the paint and we’ll see if he can recapture some of that magic from earlier in his career in this new system.
Center – Bukky Oboye (Senior)
Another notable transfer in this frontcourt, Oboye will play some sort of significant role for the Tigers moving forward. A 7-1 center out of Texas, he had three seasons with Santa Clara, largely as a reserve early in his career. A big step was taken last season, averaging 7.9 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks as the Broncos had a revival season, though we’ll see what kind of production he can manage at the 5 in the SEC.
Key Reserves
Guard – Caleb Williams (Freshman)
Williams is a 6-5 shooting guard out of Tampa who’s the most notable freshman recruit for the Tigers this offseason. He’s considered a 3-star and doesn’t exactly jump off the page, but Williams has size versatility and might become a matchup nightmare as a result. We’ll see how his shooting ability translates into college ball, though there’s likely a role for him in this lineup.
Guard – George Kimble III (Senior)
If everything goes according to plan Kimble becomes an underrated offseason addition for the Tigers. He did great work at the junior college level before starring at Eastern Kentucky, putting up 18.0 points, 3.2 assists, and 2.6 steals a game as a sophomore. Unfortunately, an injury forced him to miss all of last season at Vanderbilt and now Auburn hopes he can turn back into that elusive and crafty point guard with great defensive numbers.
Guard – Kolby King (Senior)
His eligibility is in question heading into year five in the college game, but King would be a nice veteran piece in the backcourt. After time at St. John’s, Tulane, Butler, and Utah State, he’s clearly well-traveled, putting up 7.5 points and 3.3 rebounds per game last year on a great Aggies team. King has largely played a bench role and could be an important reserve with the Tigers, especially if he continues his great long-range shooting, making nearly 40% of his 3-pointers the last two seasons.
Guard – Simon Walker (Sophomore)
The jury is still out on what Walker can be for the Tigers, though we really haven’t seen a ton of him on the college court. He missed time with a foot injury and played a minor role as a freshman last season, averaging just 2.5 points per game. This did include a few games with some nice long-range shooting, sitting at 53% on very limited opportunities, and the Tigers hope he can continue to grow into a larger role.
Guard – Mantas Rubstavicius (First-Year)
A 6-6 wing from Lithuania, Rubstavicius enters the fold for Auburn and could find a notable role in this lineup. He’s an experienced prospect at 24 years old who can stretch the floor, make outside shots, and affect the game on multiple levels. He’s lacking a bit in physical strength and doesn’t have any collegiate experience, though this year could see him becoming an important versatile weapon off the bench.
Forward – Adam Olsen (Senior)
A 6-8 forward from Canada, Olsen spent a pair of years playing collegiate ball up in Canada before spending last year at South Alabama. A full-time starter with the Jaguars, he put up 16.7 points and 4.1 rebounds, earning Second Team All-Sun Belt honors. In addition to great scoring ability, he led the Sun Belt in long-range shooting and is revered for his quick release.
Center – Narcisse Ngoy (First-Year)
Another experienced international prospect added in the offseason, Ngoy is a 7-footer from France who should find his way onto the court at the 5. He’s not just big, but has an impressive wingspan and great shot blocking ability. Ngoy gets the job done just as well on offense with his finishing ability around the basket and will hopefully help shore up an interior defense that was lacking for Auburn last season.
Schedule Outlook
The first two weeks of the season won’t see Auburn leaving Neville Arena, though that isn’t to stay it’ll be easy. A highly-anticipated home date with Arizona looms on November 13th and will tell us a lot in the early season about these new-look Tigers. Less than a week later, they’ll head to Las Vegas for the Players Era 8, getting looks at West Virginia, then either Kansas or UNLV, and another opponent in a stacked field.
The Tigers finally get some easier games at home, but let’s not pretend December is all sunshine and rainbows. They’ll head to Clemson on December 1st as part of the ACC/SEC Challenge and that won’t be an easy matchup. The Rocket City Classic features a matchup with Middle Tennessee in Huntsville exactly two weeks later, while the Bad Boy Mowers Series takes them to Nashville for a December 19th battle against Wisconsin.
SEC play gets underway two weeks later and will be filled with challenges. The Tigers obviously get two looks at rival Alabama but also see LSU and Ole Miss twice this season. Their matchups with Arkansas, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt are all really tough road contests, though at least the Florida game on February 9th is at home. The season ends against the Crimson Tide at home on March 6th, though it’s clearly a challenging road for Pearl and company.
Season Outlook
We can certainly imagine and devise different types of goals for this Auburn squad, but getting back to the NCAA Tournament is an absolute must. There were just too many rough showings and disappointments last season, with Auburn hoping it was just a learning experience for Pearl in his new role. Fortunately, this team just might be more talented than last year’s bunch.
Returning both Pettiford and Overton is already a massive victory for a Tigers team that suddenly has one of the most experienced and talented backcourts in the SEC. Those two need to be leaders for Auburn to have a successful campaign, though we already know that Pettiford in particular is already becoming a star. Beyond them, King and Kimble both have roles to play and there shouldn’t be a shortage of scoring from the guards.
There’s a bit more uncertainty in the frontcourt, though the staff likes what they’ve added in the offseason. 7-footers Oboye and Ngoy will likely split time at the 5 and both have the potential to be defensive anchors, albeit with limited past experience at the college level. There’s also a versatile new weapon in Olsen, who Auburn hopes remains an underrated rebounder and great shot maker this season. We can’t ignore Freeman either, a player who can really help this Tigers team if he can get back to how he was playing with the Hawkeyes.
Many things can go right or wrong in the months ahead for the Tigers but this team looks poised to get back into the Big Dance. They might not be as talented as that Final Four squad from two years ago, but don’t underestimate the talent in the backcourt and the raw potential in some of these new big men. If everything comes together just right; and we’re including coaching in that, then perhaps Auburn will surprise some people early and often this year.
Add us as a preferred source on Google