The college game is resembling the NBA more and more. From the reliance on the three-point shot to the push by some to move from halves to quarters to the offseason, which has become almost as explosive as the regular season. One thing that will always be unique to the college game (even if some want to change it) is the NCAA Tournament and the selection of the field.
Much like the game has evolved, the importance of bracketology has also evolved. No longer is it something that people only pay attention to in February and March, the impact on a team's tournament chances can be felt and examined in everything they do, even in the offseason. Whether it be from a roster standpoint or how a non-conference schedule can enhance a resume, examining college basketball through the lens of bracketology is becoming a year-round endeavor.
While trying to predict the field from the beginning of the season until Selection Sunday is undoubtedly an effort in futility, such an exercise also gives us a look at how teams are progressing throughout the year. We can see which teams are climbing and falling on the seed list and which teams are jumping on and off the bubble as we get closer to March.
Believe it or not, we are about five weeks away from Selection Sunday, which means the bracketology work begins to heat up. Every win and loss gets increasingly scrutinized, especially for those teams in the bubble, with opportunities to improve your resume dwindling. With February here, the intensity, anxiety, and fun all pick up. It’s time to look at the first bracket of the month.
South Region (Atlanta)
Lexington
1.) Auburn vs. 16.) Norfolk State
8.) Oregon vs. 9.) West Virginia
Providence
5.) Memphis vs. 12.) McNeese State
4.) Michigan vs. 13.) Arkansas State
Denver
6.) Louisville vs. 11.) Drake
3.) Kentucky vs. 14.) UNC-Wilmington
Milwaukee
7.) Missouri vs. 10.) Oklahoma
2.) Iowa State vs. 15.) Central Connecticut State
Auburn has continued to build upon the best resume in the country. The 21-2 Tigers are the top team in the NET rankings with an absolutely crazy 12 quad 1 wins, even after falling to Florida on Saturday. It’s not only the number of wins but the metrics that align with them. The Tigers are the No. 1 team in four of the six metrics that are used by the committee with the No. 1 strength of schedule in the country. It’s hard to see Auburn anywhere other than the No. overall seed and top spot in the South Region.
With the top of the field seemingly stronger than in years past, the South region has arguably the best defensive team in the country as the No. 2 seed in Iowa State, a No. 3 seed in Kentucky who just a couple of weeks ago was near the top of the 2-seed line and a No. 4 seed that has quietly been climbing the ranks and winners of 10 of their last 12, the Michigan Wolverines.
The team to keep an eye on in this region is the No. 11 seed out of the Missouri Valley, the Drake Bulldogs. The 20-2 Bulldogs have a NET ranking of 57, with 5 of their six metrics in the top 62 heading into Sunday. Ben McCollum’s team looks a lot like the Darian DeVries Drake teams, with discipline and high execution. If The Bulldogs keep winning games, they can make a strong case for an at-large bid should they need it.
Midwest Region (Indianapolis)
Raleigh
1.) Alabama vs. 16.) Milwaukee
8.) Clemson vs. 9.) Ohio State
Seattle
5.) Mississippi vs. 12.) Samford
4.) Texas Tech vs. 13.) Akron
Wichita
6.) Illinois vs. 11.) Georgia
3.) Houston vs. 14.) Lipscomb
Milwaukee
7.) Uconn vs. 10.) Vanderbilt
2.) Purdue vs. 15.) Merrimack
The top seed in the Midwest Region is another team from the SEC, the Alabama Crimson Tide. Alabama is now 20-3 after defeating Arkansas on Saturday. With a 14-3 record over the top 2 quads and a results-metric average of two, the Crimson Tide have strong numbers that are deserving of a No. 1 seed. Road wins are like gold for a team’s resume, and Alabama has seven of them, which sets them apart from the other teams fighting for a No. 1 seed.
Alabama’s region is loaded with final four contenders. No. 2 seed Purdue has the best point guard in the country, in my opinion, in Braden Smith, the No. 3 seed is Houston, and at the bottom of the bracket is defending champ UConn at No. 7 and a No. 6 seed is led by a couple of dynamic freshmen Will Riley and Kasparas Jakucionis the Illinois Fighting Illini.
The team to watch here is yet another defensive stalwart, No. 5 Mississippi. Chris Beard has the Rebels buying into his defensive philosophies and is a top-15 defensive efficiency team that takes care of the basketball. They are the No. 1 team in the country in turnover percentage, only turning the ball over 8.8 times per game. Offensively, they have five players averaging double figures and scoring over 78 points per game.
East Region (Newark)
Lexington
1.) Tennessee vs. 16.) Little Rock/American
8.) Gonzaga vs. 9.) New Mexico
Providence
5.) Marquette vs. 12.) VCU
4.) Kansas vs. 13.) Yale
Cleveland
6.) Saint John's vs. 11.) Texas/Wake Forest
3.) Michigan State vs. 14.) Liberty
Wichita
7.) Creighton vs. 10.) Nebraska
2.) Texas A&M vs. 15.) South Dakota State
How strong has the SEC been all season long? Strong enough to see three SEC teams on the No. 1 seed line, with Tennessee grabbing the top spot in the East Region. The Volunteers are 20-4 with 10 wins in the first two quads. Tennessee’s resume average is 4.1, which is strong, but what has them a tic below the first two No. 1 seeds is their strength of schedule in comparison. They have a SOS of 12, which is stronger than Duke but 10 spots behind Alabama. Their non-conference SO, however, is much worse than the other top seeds, the Vols rank 127th, and the next closest among the No. 1 seeds is Duke at 18th.
Let’s call the East region the coaches blue blood region. To go along with Rick Barnes as the No. 1 seed, this region has Tom Izzo with Michigan State as the No. 3 seed, Bill Self and Kansas as the No. 4 seed, Rick Pitino and Saint John’s as the No. 6 seed, and Mark Few’s Gonzaga Bulldogs as the No. 8 seed. I will be surprised if none of these coaches are the East Regional champions.
It’s time to start looking at the job Greg McDermott is doing with the No. 7 seed Creighton Bluejays. The Bluejays are 18-6 with a NET ranking of 32 and all six of their metrics in the top 30. They sit just one game behind Saint Johns for the lead in the Big East and have lost just once since their head-scratching blowout loss at Georgetown.
West Region (San Francisco)
Raleigh
1.) Duke vs. 16.) Bryant/Southern
8.) Saint Mary's vs. 9.) Utah State
Seattle
5.) UCLA vs. 12.) UC-San Diego
4.) Arizona vs. 13.) Grand Canyon
Denver
6.) Mississippi State vs. 11.) Xavier/San Diego State
3.) Wisconsin vs. 14.) Northern Colorado
Cleveland
7.) Maryland vs. 10.) Baylor
2.) Florida vs. 15.) High Point
The No. 1 seed in the West Region is the No. 2 team in the NET and is led by the top freshman in the country, Cooper Flagg, the Duke Blue Devils. The Blue Devils have a results-metric average of six to go along with a 9-3 record over the top two quads. Despite losing at Clemson on Saturday, they own one of the two victories over the field’s top seed Auburn, the Ble Devils are still worthy of a No. 1 seed. With there not being as many opportunities in the ACC as say the SEC, Duke needs to keep winning if they want to keep the others behind them.
Duke’s road out west won’t be easy. The No. 2 seed Florida just beat the No. 1 team in the field on Saturday, Auburn on the road, pretty handily, and did so without Alijah Martin. The No. 3 and No. 4 seeds are two of the hottest teams in the country, Wisconsin and Arizona, respectively. The two teams have combined to win 24 of their last 27 games. Sitting at No. 5 is UCLA who seems to have righted the ship, winning seven straight.
The game to watch in this region is the No. 8 vs. No. 9 game between Saint Mary’s and Utah State. This would be a matchup between one of the best offensively efficient teams in the country in Utah State, against one of the best defensive ones in Saint Mary’s. The Aggies are a top-30 team offensively who like to play at a faster pace, and the Gaels play at one of the slowest paces in the country as a top-10 defensive team.
The Bubble
Last four in
The last four teams in the field will see Texas take on Wake Forest with the winner headed to Cleveland to take on No. 6 Saint John’s. Both teams have shown flashes of what they could be with Wake Forest having beaten North Carolina and Texas knocking off Kentucky, but consistency is the key here. The other game will see Xavier battling San Diego State, with the winner headed to Denver to take on No. 6 Mississippi State.
First four out
The first four teams out of the field include two teams that faced off in Chapel Hill on Saturday, North Carolina and Pittsburgh. North Carolina won by one and they ended up just ahead of the Panthers on the seed line. The other two teams just outside the field in a very fluid bubble situation are Cincinnati and a suddenly surging Arkansas who gave Alabama all they could handle on Saturday.
Next four out
Get your acronyms ready for the four teams out of the field. This group is not only acronym-heavy but also Big 12-heavy, with three of each. The Big 12 representatives are BYU, UCF, and Arizona State. There will be plenty of chances for these three to move up as we come down the home stretch of league play. The last team in this group, SMU will have fewer chances before postseason play, with games against Pittsburgh, Wake Fores,t and Clemson as their remaining needle movers.