The college game is resembling the NBA more and more. From the reliance on the three-point shot to the push by some to move from halves to quarters to the offseason, which has become almost as explosive as the regular season. One thing that will always be unique to the college game (even if some want to change it) is the NCAA Tournament and the selection of the field.
Much like the game has evolved, the importance of bracketology has also evolved. No longer is it something that people only pay attention to in February and March, the impact on a team's tournament chances can be felt and examined in everything they do, even in the offseason. Whether it be from a roster standpoint or how a non-conference schedule can enhance a resume, examining college basketball through the lens of bracketology is becoming a year-round endeavor.
While trying to predict the field from the beginning of the season until Selection Sunday is undoubtedly an effort in futility, such an exercise also gives us a look at how teams are progressing throughout the year. We can see which teams are climbing and falling on the seed list and which teams are jumping on and off the bubble as we get closer to March.
It may be hard to believe but conference tournaments get started next Sunday when the Atlantic Sun first round gets underway. For those small conferences that make up the first week of postseason play, it’s do-or-die time, while those teams lurking around the bubble have about four games to boost their resumes before tournament play. All that being said, let’s take a look at the field heading into the final week of February.
South Region (Atlanta)
We'll start in the south region, where the Auburn Tigers continue to roll. They chalked up 3 more wins since last Saturday over Alabama, Arkansas, and Georgia, giving them a staggering 14 quad 1 wins, with nine being quad 1A wins. As we sit just three weeks from selection Sunday, it's hard to envision Auburn as anything other than the No. 1 seed in the South and the tournament's overall top seed.
Auburn’s road to the final four will have some familiar faces. Both Texas A&M and Kentucky round out the top three seeds in the South, which happen to be two of Auburn’s last three opponents in the regular season. The No. 4 seed in the region is a Michigan team that is in a battle with in-state rival Sparty for the top spot in the Big Ten. Rounding out the top five is a 20-7 Marquette team that has lost three of its last five games.
The No. 8 seed BYU has been on a roll of late, winning eight of their last 10 with wins over Baylor, a dismantling of Kansas, and a road win over Arizona. The Cougars average 81 points per game and do so with a balanced attack. They have just two guys averaging double figures but seven others that add at least six points per game. BYU has four games remaining, including a tilt at Iowa State, where another win could shoot them up even further.
Midwest Region (Indianapolis)
Lexington
1.) Alabama vs. 16.) South Dakota State
8.) Creighton vs. 9.) Gonzaga
Seattle
5.) Arizona vs. 12.) Arkansas/Ohio State
4.) St Johns vs. 13.) Akron
Milwaukee
6.) Mississippi vs. 11.) Drake
3.) Wisconsin vs. 14.) Grand Canyon
Wichita
7.) Clemson vs. 10.) San Diego State
2.) Houston vs. 15.) Northern Colorado
In the Midwest region, Alabama remains the top seed despite a couple of losses last week to Auburn and getting dismantled by Missouri. The Crimson Tide still have 16 wins over the first two quad and have played the 2nd toughest schedule in the country to go along with a metrics average of 4.1. They have four games left on their gauntlet of a schedule if they right the ship, you'll see them as the No.1 seed here.
In the Midwest, there is a great dichotomy between the top two seeds. Alabama is the top offensive team in the country and the No. 2 seed Houston is perennially one of the best defensive teams in the sport. Speaking of defense, Rick Pitino’s St. John’s Redstorm hangs their hats on their defensive work, as they rank 2nd in the country in defensive efficiency.
In the spotlight in the Midwest is No. 3 Wisconsin because this Badgers team is a far cry from those of Wisconsin past. The defense is as good as ever, but these Badgers average 82 points per game, are a top-10 offensive efficiency team, and this team plays at a much faster pace. Wisconsin ranks 182nd in tempo, which may not seem very fast but in Greg Gard’s tenure, they’ve ranked in the 300s every year except for 2022.
East Region (Newark)
Raleigh
1.) Duke vs. 16.) Bryant
8.) Illinois vs. 9.) UConn
Denver
5.) Maryland vs. 12.) Yale
4.) Texas Tech vs. 13.) Arkansas State
Cleveland
6.) Memphis vs. 11.) Texas
3.) Michigan State vs. 14.) Samford
Cleveland
7.) Mississippi State vs. 10.) Nebraska
2.) Tennessee vs.15.) Cleveland State
Duke remains the No. 1 seed in the East region with a 24-3 record after beating Illinois on Saturday. The win was the Blue Devils' six quad 1 win and gives them another boost in trying to hold off teams trying to overtake them on the seed line. Duke finishes the year with Wake Forest and North Carolina, and how they do in those two could be key in their ability to hold on to the top spot in the East.
The top four seeds in the East include the nation’s No. 1 defensive team, Tennessee as the No. 2 seed, a team and coach you never bet against in March, No. 3 Michigan State, and a Texas Tech team that ranks in the top 50 of every offensive and defensive shooting metric as the No. 4 seed. Looking at the teams in the East, points will be at a premium, and the team that reaches the final four will have run the defensive gauntlet with five teams in the top 27 in defensive efficiency.
There’s a game to watch in this region, and it’s the No. 8 vs. No. 9 game between Illinois and UConn. This is a game between two teams that have been struggling to put it all together. After getting dismantled by Duke at MSG, it was the Illini’s 4th loss in their last six games, including a loss at Rutgers. The Huskies haven’t won more than two in a row since Villanova ended their 8-game winning streak on Jan. 8.
West Region (San Francisco)
Raleigh
1.) Florida vs. 16.) Bucknell/Southern
8.) Utah State vs. 9.) West Virginia
Denver
5.) Oregon vs. 12.) McNeese State
4.) Missouri vs. 13.) High Point
Providence
6.) Saint Mary's vs. 11.) UC-San Diego
3.) Purdue vs. 14.) UNC-Wilmington
Milwaukee
7.) Louisville vs. 10.) Vanderbilt
2.) Iowa State vs. 15.) Norfolk State
The final No. 1 seed remains the same with the Florida Gators heading out west. Todd Golden's team is 24-3 after beating Oklahoma and LSU this week. The Gators now have a 14-3 record in quads 1 and 2. They also have a chance to add to that total as they finish the regular season with home games against Texas A&M and Ole Miss and travel to Alabama. The Gators are in a spot where wins in these games could see them leapfrogging Duke but losses could have a number of teams on their heels.
The No. 2 seed in the West, Iowa State, was in the conversation to be on the No. 1 line until injuries hit, and they have gone 4-4 over their last eight games. The No. 3 seed Purdue has the nation’s best point guard in Braden Smith, and the No. 4 seed is Missouri who has road wins over Florida, Alabama, and the Mississippi schools since Jan. 14.
When you fundamentally execute on both ends of the floor, you’re bound to be successful no matter how fast you play. Case in point is the No. 6 seed Saint Mary’s, who won the WCC regular season title after winning at Gonzaga on Saturday. The Gaels are now 25-4 and have swept the season series with Gonzaga. Saint Mary’s thrives on defense and a methodical offensive philosophy that has them playing at a pace that ranks them 358th out of 364 teams.
The Bubble
Last four in
Three weeks away from selection Sunday and the picture around the bubble is as murky as ever. The games in Dayton will see Oklahoma and Wake Forest battling as No. 12 seeds for the right to take on Marquette in the South Region. The other game between No. 12 seeds sees Arkansas take on Ohio State with the winner taking on Arizona in the Midwest.
First four out
The first four teams out of the field is as fluid as ever. This iteration includes Xavier, Indiana, Cincinnati, and SMU. The thing that sticks out for this group and the big reason they aren’t in the field is their combined 5-35 record in quad 1 games. That record alone shows how weak the bubble is with conference tournaments on the horizon next weekend. With so few games remaining in the regular season, if these teams can put together a winning streak, they’re likely to find themselves on the right side of the bubble.
Next four out
The next four teams out of the field are North Carolina, Georgia, Boise State, and UC Irvine. Of the four teams, Georgia and North Carolina have the best opportunities to move up with three winnable games left for Georgia and the Tar Heels end the regular season by hosting Duke. For Boise State, their biggest game is their next one against Utah State, but UC-Irvine’s path to an at-large berth is much simpler. The Anteaters must win out and meet UC-San Diego for a 3rd time in the Big West tournament final to have a shot.