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Bracketology 2025: A look at the projected field sees the top of the bracket coming into focus

Jan 11, 2025; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils forward Cooper Flagg (2) reacts during the second half against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-Imagn Images
Jan 11, 2025; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils forward Cooper Flagg (2) reacts during the second half against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-Imagn Images | Rob Kinnan-Imagn Images
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Midwest Region (Indianapolis)

Milwaukee

1.) Iowa State vs. 16.) Cent. Conn. State/Southern

8.) Gonzaga vs. 9.) Georgia

Providence

5.) Memphis vs. 12.) Bradley

4.) Texas A&M vs. 13.) Akron

Wichita

6.) Arizona vs. 11.) UC-Irvine

3.) Purdue vs. 14.) Lipscomb

Cleveland

7.) Saint John's vs. 10.) San Diego State

2.) Tennessee vs.15.) Milwaukee

There has been some movement along the top seed line, and one team that has moved up is the top seed in the Midwest region, the Iowa State Cyclones. Their loss at West Virginia was their first loss since falling to Auburn in Maui in November. The Cyclones have eight wins over the first two quads with a metric average of five. What Iowa State has done so fa,r coupled with the improved non-conference scheduling, has them on the top-seed line.

The Midwest can boast arguably the best No. 2 seed in the field in Tennessee and a No. 4 seed Texas A&M team that showed its ceiling and floor in its loss to Texas on Saturday. The Aggies can blow teams out like they did in the first half but also struggle on both ends as they did in the second half, blowing a 22-point lead in the loss to the Longhorns. There are a couple of teams that look like they’re rounding into form at the right time: No. 3 Purdue and No. 6 Arizona. The two teams have combined to win 16 of their last 18 games.

Let’s take a look at the No. 11 seed in the region, Russell Turner’s UC-Irvine Anteaters out of the Big West. Entering Sunday they are 50th in the NET with a 1-1 quad 1 record and results-based metrics all in the top 50 as well. Undoubtedly the biggest game left on their schedule is the return home date with UC-San Diego next month. A sweep of the Tritons would be a big boost to their resume and give UC-Irvine some potential at-large consideration if they don’t win the Big West auto bid.

West Region (San Francisco)

Lexington

1.) Alabama vs. 16.) Colgate/Bryant

8.) Texas Tech vs. 9.) Saint Mary's

Seattle

5.) Wisconsin vs. 12.) Samford

4.) Mississippi State vs. 13.) Liberty

Denver

6.) UCLA vs. 11.) New Mexico

3.) Kansas vs. 14.) Grand Canyon

Milwaukee

7.) Utah State vs. 10.) Pittsburgh

2.) Michigan State vs. 15.) North Dakota State

The final No. 1 seed goes to the Alabama Crimson Tide who find themselves in the West region. The Tide have 12 wins over the first two quadrants and are staring at every remaining game on their schedule, likely landing in that area. Nate Oats’ team has a resume average of 7.6 with their three results-based metrics being ranked No. 2. To date they have played one of the toughest schedules in the country, their strength of schedule is second best in the nation having played just five games in the last two quadrants.

Alabama may be the best-scoring team in the country, but if they want a return trip to the Final Four, they will have to face some of the best defensive teams in the country. Texas Tech or Saint Mary’s would get the Crimson Tide in the second round and Wisconsin, UCLA, and Michigan State would all love a chance to try and shut down Nate Oats’ high-powered offense.

No. 7 seed Utah State has quietly been climbing up the seed list. The Aggies are 17-2 with a 7-2 record in the first two quads. Their two losses have come by a combined five points to UNLV on the road and a home loss to UC-San Diego that doesn’t look as bad as it might have before Christmas. Their results-based metrics average is 20, and piling up more quad 2 wins in Mountain West play will see the Aggies' ascension up the ranks continue.