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Bracketology 2025: Bubble Watch for mid-majors in early January

Nevada takes on Utah State at Lawlor Events Center in Reno on Dec. 31, 2024.
Nevada takes on Utah State at Lawlor Events Center in Reno on Dec. 31, 2024. | JASON BEAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
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Selection Sunday is still over two months away, as we near the halfway point in the college basketball season. With that being said, we are now firmly into conference play, and it’s time to start thinking about which teams are going to be a part of March Madness several weeks from now. The chance for dozens, if not hundreds of teams to build their resumes in nonconference play has come and gone and the games ahead are even more important.

We’ll present all kinds of bracketology pieces in the weeks to come, and many more bubble watches, much like this piece, but this particular one will be unique. Today, our focus is squarely on the mid-major programs in the nation that have a fighting chance to earn one of those at-large bids. The landscape in this sport is ever-changing, and it’s harder than ever to grab national attention, meaning each of these teams has their work cut out for them.

Not too long ago, it was much more commonplace to see mid-majors earning at-large bids, with leagues like the A-10, Conference USA, and the MVC more regularly earning multiple bids. When VCU advanced to the Final Four as an 11-seed in 2011, they actually finished 6th in the CAA and lost four of their last five regular-season games. That kind of performance doesn’t get a mid-major into the NCAA Tournament these days, especially with the change in metrics and focus on comparative analytics.

Today isn’t about which teams will or won’t be included in the NCAA Tournament, as any of these teams could win their league tournaments in March and simplify the equation. Instead, we are looking closely at where a certain group of teams currently stand and seeing if they belong in the field or if there’s a lot of work ahead to get into March Madness. This isn’t a complete list, someone could make a run in the weeks ahead, but here are the mid-majors with a fighting chance, presented alphabetically.