Dayton (11-4) (NET: 54)
2-3 (Q1), 1-1 (Q2), 2-0 (Q3), 5-0 (Q4)
Despite four losses, the Flyers have potential here because of those two outstanding Quad 1 victories. Dayton had two close calls at the Maui Invitational but pulled through for an 18-point win over UConn in their final game there. Less than three weeks later, Dayton then got another massive win against a very talented Marquette team currently in the Top 10.
This team wasn’t expected to beat Iowa State or North Carolina in Maui and a recent loss to Cincinnati wasn’t a shocker either, but last weekend really tore a hole in their resume when they went to George Washington and lost by 20 points. Does that game alone offset what they’ve achieved?
Dayton’s NET certainly tumbled a fair bit with that recent loss and this team can’t really afford performances like that again. Road matchups at St. Bonaventure and VCU are the only Quad 1 games on the horizon and frankly there aren’t many Quad 2 opportunities ahead either.
You’ll be hard-pressed to find a mid-major team with a pair of wins at the quality of UConn and Marquette and that will keep the Flyers right where they need to be in the coming weeks. Obviously, this is only the case if they can avoid terrible losses moving forward in a competitive A-10.
Drake (12-2) (NET: 76)
1-0 (Q1), 1-1 (Q2), 4-1 (Q3), 4-0 (Q4)
This Drake team was one of the final unbeaten teams this season, with a 12-0 start that included winning the Charleston Classic. Underdogs in all three games, the Bulldogs beat Miami and Florida Atlantic teams that are underachieving and also got that Quad 1 win over Vanderbilt. The Quad 2 win was also impressive, winning at Kansas State in the middle of December.
On the other end, the Bulldogs are now winless since New Year’s. A road loss to UIC wasn’t disaster but this past weekend’s home defeat against Murray State sits at Quad 3 and really mars this resume. Their NET was 46 less than a week ago and now sits in unenviable position.
Two quick losses in MVC play sank their fortunes but they have a chance to really bounce back with a Quad 1 road game at Bradley this week. The Bulldogs almost need a win here to get back into at-large contention and that’s only the beginning. It’s a sea of Quad 3 and 4 games in the month that follows and they’ll need another long winning streak.
That win over Vanderbilt looks really good, though it could deflate in value if the Commodores can’t hang with the big dogs in the SEC. Still, the Bulldogs have shown significant potential under a new head coach, they just need to win and play much better in the coming weeks.