Busting Brackets
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Bracketology 2025: Bubble Watch for mid-majors in early January

Nevada takes on Utah State at Lawlor Events Center in Reno on Dec. 31, 2024.
Nevada takes on Utah State at Lawlor Events Center in Reno on Dec. 31, 2024. | JASON BEAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
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New Mexico (13-3) (NET: 69)
1-1 (Q1), 4-1 (Q2), 2-0 (Q3), 5-1 (Q4)

The Lobos went to Henderson, Nevada in the opening week of the season and got a win over a really talented UCLA squad that remains at Quad 1. They’ve spent more recent weeks stockpiling Quad 2 wins, notably beating USC on a neutral-site, Colorado State on the road, and knocking down VCU and Nevada on their home floor.

Unfortunately, rival New Mexico State surprised them at home for a massive upset in early December and that’s a Quad 4 loss right now and likely stays that way. The other two losses are far less dire, coming against St. John’s and Arizona State away from home.

New Mexico has won five straight games and has chances to better their resume as MWC play continues. The current NET ratings have five Quad 1 games on their schedule, though none of those are until February. That basically means that the Lobos need to keep winning until them, including upcoming tough games hosting San Diego State and Boise State.

Richard Pitino’s team has talent and can win in the MWC as they’ve already shown with their 4-0 start in league play. They just need to get the job done in some of those significant matchups down the line while avoiding a repeat of their New Mexico State performance. There’s work ahead, but the Lobos are closer than they seem.

Oregon State (12-4) (NET: 67)
0-3 (Q1), 1-0 (Q2), 1-1 (Q3), 9-0 (Q4)

For this new WCC team, there’s been good early in the year though the standout wins haven’t quite been there yet. Oregon State has a nice Quad 2 home win over UC Irvine and also did solid work against Charleston right before Christmas, but that’s pretty much it when we’re talking notable wins.

This resume was in good shape because Oregon State avoided the bad loss, with three Quad 1 defeats against Oregon, North Texas, and Nebraska. However, a dreadful showing at Loyola Marymount last week led to a 21-point drubbing, a Quad 3 defeat, and disaster for their metrics.

The chance for redemption is coming fast, as the Beavers have three Quad 1 games in the next two weeks. Getting a notable win or two would go a long way to saving that NET figure and finally building something for the Beavers.

Right now, this team has a lot of work ahead, especially if they’re getting manhandled by the likes of Loyola Marymount, a team not expected to be competitors in this conference. Moving forward, the Beavers need to win these important games to get back into public attention.