The college game is resembling the NBA more and more. From the reliance on the three-point shot to the push by some to move from halves to quarters to the offseason, which has become almost as explosive as the regular season. One thing that will always be unique to the college game (even if some want to change it) is the NCAA Tournament and the selection of the field.
Much like the game has evolved, the importance of bracketology has also evolved. No longer is it something that people only pay attention to in February and March, the impact on a team's tournament chances can be felt and examined in everything they do, even in the offseason. Whether it be from a roster standpoint or how a non-conference schedule can enhance a resume, examining college basketball through the lens of bracketology is becoming a year-round endeavor.
While trying to predict the field from the beginning of the season until Selection Sunday is undoubtedly an effort in futility, such an exercise also gives us a look at how teams are progressing throughout the year. We can see which teams are climbing and falling on the seed list and which teams are jumping on and off the bubble as we get closer to March.
March has arrived, and conference tournaments will begin on March 2nd. With two weeks until the big reveal, there is still a lot to work out both around the bubble and at the top of the field. For the first time in a month, there is some movement at the top of the bracket. The first bracket of madness month is here.
South Region (Atlanta)
Lexington
1.) Auburn vs. 16.) South Dakota State
8.) Creighton vs. 9.) New Mexico
Denver
5.) Missouri vs. 12.) Drake
4.) Purdue vs. 13.) High Point
Wichita
6.) UCLA vs. 11.) VCU
3.) Kentucky vs. 14.) Lipscomb
Cleveland
7.) Mississippi vs. 10.) Baylor
2.) Michigan State vs. 15.) Milwaukee
Even though there are some changes at the top, the No. 1 overall seed hasn’t and is unlikely to change as Auburn is the No. 1 seed in the South. The 27-2 Tigers have 10 quad 1A wins, eight road wins after beating Kentucky on Saturday, and with off-the-chart metrics, there isn’t a scenario that won’t end with Auburn being the No. 1 seed in the South.
Michigan State is the South's No. 2 seed, peaking at the right time as Tom Izzo is known to do. The No. 3 seed is a Kentucky team that has been riddled by injuries, and as we found out this weekend, Jaxson Robinson will have season-ending wrist surgery. Also in this region is a team playing extremely well, No. 6 BYU has won 10 of their last 11 heading into the final week of the regular season.
The team to keep an eye on in this region is the No. 12 seed Drake. The Bulldogs are 26-3 heading into their regular season finale on Sunday. Drake is a top 80 team in both offensive and defensive efficiencies and executes at a methodical pace, ranking last in the country in both tempo and average possession length. If you want to beat Drake, any opponent will have to execute at a high level.
East Region (Newark)
Raleigh
1.) Duke vs. 16.) Bryant
8.) Mississippi State vs. 9.) San Diego State
Providence
5.) Maryland vs. 12.) McNeese State
4.) St. Johns vs. 13.) Yale
Denver
6.) BYU vs. 11.) Nebraska/Arkansas
3.) Texas A&M vs. 14.) Grand Canyon
Cleveland
7.) Louisville vs. 10.) West Virginia
2.) Florida vs. 15.) UNC-Wilmington
The No. 1 seed in the East region is the ACC’s top team, the Duke Blue Devils. After defeating Florida State on Saturday, Duke has a tricky end to the season with games against two teams that could desperately use wins with Wake Forest and North Carolina. Should the Blue Devils get through those two games, it will be hard to envision Duke not being a No. 1 seed.
The biggest roadblocks to a Duke Final Four run include No. 2 Florida, a No. 3 Texas A&M team that has succumbed to the rigors of SEC play as of late, and a St. John’s team that clinched its first Big East title in 30 years is the No. 4 seed. Offense will be the name of the game in the East region, with the top three seeds all averaging over 83 points per game.
The teams to watch in this region are the No. 12 seed McNeese State Cowboys and No. 13 seed Yale Bulldogs. The teams are a combined 30-2 in conference play after Yale suffered their first Ivy League loss at the hands of Harvard. McNeese State is 24-6, having clinched the top seed in the Southland tournament with one game before that tournament begins. Likewise, Yale has clinched the top spot in the Ivy tournament by a large margin. Should they make the field, both of these squads will be popular first-round upset picks on selection Sunday.
Midwest Region (Indianapolis)
Lexington
1.) Alabama vs. 16.) Southern/Bucknell
8.) Illinois vs. 9.) Vanderbilt
Seattle
5.) Arizona vs. 12.) Liberty
4.) Marquette vs. 13.) Samford
Milwaukee
6.) Saint Marys vs. 11.) Indiana/Oklahoma
3.) Iowa State vs. 14.) Northern Colorado
Wichita
7.) Memphis vs. 10.) Utah State
2.) Houston vs. 15.) Central Connecticut State
The No. 1 seed in the Midwest region stays the same as Alabama holds the top spot,despite going 2-3 over their last five after their heartbreaking loss at Tennessee on Saturday. No team in the country has a tougher stretch to end the season than Alabama. On the day after Valentine’s Day they lost to Auburn, then gave up 110 points at Missouri before winning home games against Mississippi State and Kentucky. Now, with the Tennessee game out of the way, they finish the year against Florida and at Auburn. While the Tide may end up on the No. 2 seed line, for now, the resume is still elite enough to stay as a No. 1 seed.
The dichotomy in the Midwest is fascinating. The No. 1 seed, Alabama is the best offensive team in the country, and if seeds hold, they will face arguably the best defensive team in the country, the No. 2 seed, the Houston Cougars. Also in this region are two teams who are in the top 11 of defensive efficiency, No. 3 seed Iowa State and No. 6 Saint Mary’s. Teams have had trouble shutting down Alabama’s offense all year, but these teams have proven they can put the clamps on some of the best teams in the country.
There are also some dangerous teams in this region that have been on a roller coaster ride all season. The No. 7 seed Memphis, even though they are 23-5 entering Sunday, the Tigers have had a habit of playing down to their competition a bit. The No. 8 vs. No. 9 game features two more of those teams in Illinois and Vanderbilt. Illinois has gone just 5-7 in their last 12, entering the final week of the regular season, and Vanderbilt has gone just 7-8 over their last 15 despite some of the big wins they have.
West Region (San Francisco)
Raleigh
1.) Tennessee vs. 16.) Quinnipiac/Southeast Miss. St
8.) UConn vs. 9.) Gonzaga
Seattle
5.) Clemson vs. 12.) UC-San Diego
4.) Texas Tech vs. 13.) Akron
Providence
6.) Kansas vs. 11.) Georgia
3.) Michigan vs. 14.) Arkansas State
Milwaukee
7.) Oregon vs. 10.) Texas
2.) Wisconsin vs. 15.) Norfolk State
The change on the No. 1 seed line comes in the West region as the Tennessee Volunteers jump up to take the top spot. By virtue of their buzzer-beating win over Alabama on Saturday and the work they’ve done in quad 1A, with seven wins, and on the road in that quadrant with five wins over teams in the top 52 of the NET. With two weeks until Selection Sunday, there are once again three teams from the SEC on the top line.
If Tennessee’s defense can finally carry them to a final four, they will have to go through the Big Ten to do so. Wisconsin is the No. 2 seed out west, and the Michigan Wolverines are the No. 3 seed. Another team that, like Wisconsin, has been known for defense but has been more offensive-oriented than what we are used to, the Texas Tech Red Raiders, is the No. 4 seed.
Tennessee may have gotten the final No. 1 seed in this edition of the field but they may have also gotten the toughest second-round draw as a result. The No. 8 vs. No. 9 game in the West region features the two-time defending champs UConn taking a team you can usually pencil into a Sweet 16 run without even blinking, Gonzaga. While both these teams have had their struggles, they have also shown glimpses of their ceilings by running good teams out of the gym.
The Bubble
Last four in
The last four teams in the field include a pair of teams from the two conferences likely to receive the most bids, the SEC and the Big Ten. Nebraska and Arkansas face-off as No. 11 seeds in the East region with the winner getting to take on BYU in Denver. The other game is part of the Midwest region with Indiana and Oklahoma doing battle for the right to face No. 6 seed Saint Mary’s.
First four out
The first four teams out of the field fluctuate game-by-game at this time of year, and this group sees a couple of ACC teams in Wake Forest and North Carolina. These two teams battled to a one-point Wake Forest win in their only meeting, and the good news is that they both have a big opportunity facing Duke in the final week. The other two teams just missing the field are Xavier and Boise State, both of whom have gotten big wins of late, Xavier over Creighton and Boise State over New Mexico and Utah State.
Next four out
The next four teams out that can move up the seed list quickly if they string some wins together are Ohio State, Cincinnati, Villanova, and a team that just keeps winning and if things break right has an outside shot at an at-large bid, UC-Irvine. With the bubble changing shape so rapidly, any of these teams can make the climb if they can find that fateful word, consistency.