The college game is resembling the NBA more and more. From the reliance on the three-point shot to the push by some to move from halves to quarters to the offseason, which has become almost as explosive as the regular season. One thing that will always be unique to the college game (even if some want to change it) is the NCAA Tournament and the selection of the field.
Much like the game has evolved, the importance of bracketology has also evolved. No longer is it something that people only pay attention to in February and March, the impact on a team's tournament chances can be felt and examined in everything they do, even in the offseason. Whether it be from a roster standpoint or how a non-conference schedule can enhance a resume, examining college basketball through the lens of bracketology is becoming a year-round endeavor.
While trying to predict the field from the beginning of the season until Selection Sunday is undoubtedly an effort in futility, such an exercise also gives us a look at how teams are progressing throughout the year. We can see which teams are climbing and falling on the seed list and which teams are jumping on and off the bubble as we get closer to March.
With just one week to go before the bracket is revealed, we have one ticket punched as SIU-Edwardsville won the Ohio Valley tournament on Saturday and four more to be awarded on Sunday. As some spots are being finalized, other spots are still up for grabs with a week of tournament play remaining. Here is a look at how things stand in our penultimate projection.
South Region (Atlanta)
Lexington
1.) Auburn vs. 16.) Merrimack/SIU-Edwardsville
8.) Marquette vs. 9.) Utah State
Seattle
5.) Michigan vs. 12.) UC-San Diego
4.) Arizona vs. 13.) Liberty
Wichita
6.) Mississippi vs. 11.) Baylor/Ohio State
3.) Texas A&M vs. 14.) Northern Colorado
Providence
7.) Illinois vs. 10.) West Virginia
2.) St. Johns vs. 15.) Central Connecticut State
Stop the presses. The Auburn Tigers have not only lost, but ended the regular season losing two straight. Texas A&M beat them on Tuesday and Mark Sears broke their hearts as Alabama knocked them off on Saturday. But, in a bracket season full of ups and downs, these losses mean very little for Auburn, other than their grip on the No. 1 overall seed being a bit more loose. The now 27-4 Tigers still have the best resume in the country and would have to lose their regular season finale and SEC tournament opener to be in any danger of not being the No. 1 seed in the South region and the field's top seed.
The No. 2 seed in the South is the Big East champs who won their first title in over 30 years, St. John’s. The Johnnies are one of the best defensive teams in the country, and a coach who certainly knows how to win in March. There are also a couple of SEC cohorts in the south with No. 3 Texas A&M and No. 6 Mississippi, with the Aggies already proving they have what it takes to take down Auburn.
The team to watch is the No. 12 seed UC-San Diego, which in their first year of eligibility, has won the Big West regular season title and has a resume that could be at-large worthy if they don’t win the conference tournament. Entering the final day of the regular season, the Tritons are 35th in the NET with a 2-1 record in quad 1 and 3-3 over the first two quads, with the possibility of another opportunity should they meet UC-Irvine in the Big West final.
East Region (Newark)
Raleigh
1.) Duke vs. 16.) Norfolk State
8.) Uconn vs. 9.) Mississippi State
Seattle
5.) Oregon vs. 12.) Yale
4.) Purdue vs. 13.) Akron
Milwaukee
6.) Missouri vs.11.) Drake
3.) Iowa State vs. 14.) Lipscomb
Lexington
7.) Memphis vs. 10.) Georgia
2.) Tennessee vs. 15.) UNC-Wilmington
After knocking off rival North Carolina, the Duke Blue Devils have all but locked up the No. 1 seed in the East region. Duke finishes the regular season at 28-3 with a quad 1 record of 6-3 with a metric average of 3.5. The Blue Devils now await their first opponent in the ACC tournament on Thursday, looking for the second leg of a possible trifecta that would end in a national title.
In the East, defensive stalwarts Tennessee and Iowa State round out the top three seeds. Also in this region are a couple of teams that have danger potential but could also go out in the first round. The No. 6 Missouri Tigers and the two-time champs UConn are the No. 8 seed. Also in the East is a Purdue team that despite finishing the year 2-5 could sneak up on some teams if they can turn things around.
Keep an eye on No. 11 Drake, who plays for the Missouri Valley final on Sunday against Bradley. The 29-3 Bulldogs should have a bid locked up no matter the outcome of the final. The Bulldogs have a methodically fundamental system and they stick to it and excel at it. Playing Drake will be a grind and opponents will have to be disciplined in order to beat Ben McCollum’s squad, which has second-weekend potential.
Midwest Region (Indianapolis)
Wichita
1.) Houston vs. 16.) Bryant
8.) Gonzaga vs. 9.) Creighton
Denver
5.) Arizona vs. 12.) McNeese State
4.) Wisconsin vs. 13.) Arkansas State
Denver
6.) UCLA vs. 11.) San Diego State
3.) Texas Tech vs. 14.) Grand Canyon
Cleveland
7.) Kansas vs. 10.) Vanderbilt
2.) Alabama vs. 15.) Robert Morris
The Houston Cougars jump up to the top-seed line after another convincing Big 12 regular season title and knocking off Kansas and Baylor to finish it off. The Cougars enter tournament play at 27-4, with an 11-3 record in quad 1, and some of the best metrics in the country, averaging a ranking of three. Houston heads to the Midwest region with eyes on Indianapolis and beyond for their first title in school history.
Houston may be the best defensive team in the country, and the No. 2 seed in the Midwest is the nation’s best offensive team, Alabama. Also in this region are a couple of teams that have historically been known for their defense but have excelled offensively this year. No. 3 Texas Tech averages 81 points per game and the No. 4 seed Wisconsin Badgers are putting up 80.8 points per contest.
In the Midwest, let’s look at the No. 8 vs. No. 9 matchup between two teams that could be a dangerous game for Houston in the second round. No. 8 Gonzaga battles No. 9 Creighton in a game where in years past could’ve easily been a Sweet Sixteen game at the very least. This game illustrates the strength of the No. 7-No. 9 lines that could lead to fantastic second-round games.
West Region (San Francisco)
Raleigh
1.) Florida vs. 16.) Southern/Bucknell
8.) New Mexico vs. 9.) West Virginia
Providence
5.) Maryland vs. 12.) VCU
4.) Clemson vs. 13.) High Point
Milwaukee
6.) BYU vs. 11.) Oklahoma/Xavier
3.) Kentucky vs. 14.) Chattanooga
Cleveland
7.) Louisville vs. 10.) Arkansas
2.) Michigan State vs. 15.) Omaha
The final No. 1 seed in the West region goes to the Florida Gators. The margins are thin when the teams are this good but the 27-4 Gators finished the season strong, winning nine of their last 10 with road wins at Auburn, Mississippi State, and Alabama in that stretch. They also have a top-5 ranking in every metric and a 5-3 record in quad 1A games, with seven of those being true road games.
The West has a couple of Blue-Blood programs rounding out the top three seeds. At No. 2 is Michigan State, who has an outside shot at landing on the top-seed line depending on how things shake out this week. The No. 3 seed is the Kentucky Wildcats, who have been hampered by injuries over the last month and a half, but Mark Pope still has the talent to make a deep run.
The team to watch is a team that Pope knows well, the No. 6 BYU Cougars enter the Big 12 tournament as the No. 4 seed after finishing the regular season 23-8. Richie Saunders is the Cougars’ leader offensively, but they use a balanced rotation to score nearly 82 points per game, with nine players averaging six points per game. Don’t be surprised if you see BYU on the second weekend.
The Bubble
Last four in
In a bit of an upset, the last four teams in the field come from four different conferences. One game in Dayton will pit Oklahoma against Xavier with the winner traveling to Milwaukee to take on No. 6 BYU in the West region. The other game sees Baylor take on Ohio State with that winner taking on No. 6 Mississippi.
First four out
The bubble this season has been as fluid as I can ever remember with a week to go. The first four teams out of the field include Nebraska, who can jump back into the field with a win or two in the Big Ten tournament. A couple of Mountain West teams, Boise State and Colorado State, are also in this group after a strong finish, but will likely need a semifinal appearance at a minimum to get into the field. Lastly, North Carolina had a big chance on Saturday at home against Duke but fell short. The Tar Heels likely will need a run in the ACC Tournament as they won’t have as many opportunities to move the needle as other teams.
Next four out
In a year where the bubble has remained weak this late in the season, anything can happen for the next four teams out. The Big West’s No. 2 seed, UC-Irvine, likely needs to win the auto bid, but a finals appearance in conjunction with other results could put them on the radar. The same could be said for the San Francisco Dons, who, in all likelihood, need to win the WCC, but a finals appearance with a win over Gonzaga to get there should get them a look. The last two teams, Texas and Wake Forest, will have more chances in their conference tournament but will need to win two or three games.