Bracketology: One week away from Selection Sunday, and bubbles are beginning to pop

It may not be pretty, but a muddy bubble will become clearer this week
Mar 7, 2026; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Indiana Hoosiers guard Lamar Wilkerson (3) reacts as time winds down during the second half against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Value City Arena. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images
Mar 7, 2026; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Indiana Hoosiers guard Lamar Wilkerson (3) reacts as time winds down during the second half against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Value City Arena. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images | Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images

Sunday’s action means the regular season has drawn to a close, and with it comes the first four tickets to be punched for the Big Dance. Champions in the Atlantic Sun, Big South, Missouri Valley, and Summit League will be crowned. With the regular season over, conference tournaments for the power conferences begin on Tuesday, starting with the ACC. Over the next seven days, the mud bog that is the bubble will turn into a crystal-clear lagoon, albeit filled with teams that have a big problem staying above water.

From November until Selection Sunday, we talk about how resumes reflect the whole body of work, not specific games. But every year, it seems as though the teams that are fighting for their postseason lives come down to their performance in conference tournaments. For those teams in the bubble conversation, the survive-and-advance mentality has already started. Before those key tournaments begin, the latest projected field gives you a glimpse into the convoluted bubble.

East Region (Washington, D.C.)

Greenville

1.) Duke vs. 16.) Central Arkansas

8.) Iowa vs. 9.) Saint Louis

Tampa

5.) Kansas vs. 12.) South Florida

4.) Alabama vs. 13.) UNC-Wilmington

Oklahoma City

6.) Saint Mary's vs. 11.) Texas

3.) Texas Tech vs. 14.) North Dakota State

Buffalo

7.) Kentucky vs. 10.) NC State

2.) Michigan State vs. 15.) Merrimack

Midwest Region (Chicago)

Buffalo

1.) Michigan vs. 16.) Long Island

8.) Clemson vs. 9.) TCU

Portland

5.) North Carolina vs. 12.) Liberty

4.) Vanderbilt vs. 13.) High Point

St. Louis

6.) Louisville vs. 11.) Missouri

3.) Iowa State vs. 14.) Illinois-Chicago

Oklahoma City

7.) Georgia vs. 10.) Miami (OH)

2.) Houston vs. 15.) Portland State

West Region (San Jose)

San Diego

1.) Arizona vs. 16.) Howard/Bethune Cookman

8.) UCLA vs. 9.) Utah State

Portland

5.) Arkansas vs. 12.) Stephen F. Austin

4.) Gonzaga vs. 13.) UC-Irvine

Philadelphia

6.) St. John's vs. 11.) VCU/SMU

3.) Nebraska vs. 14.) Navy

St. Louis

7.) Villanova vs. 10.) Texas A&M

2.) Illinois vs. 15.) Wright State

South Region (Houston)

Tampa

1.) Florida vs. 16.) Tennessee State/UMBC

8.) Miami vs. 9.) UCF

San Diego

5.) Wisconsin vs. 12.) Yale

4.) Virginia vs. 13.) Utah Valley

Greenville

6.) BYU vs. 11.) Santa Clara/New Mexico

3.) Purdue vs. 14.) Troy

Philadelphia

7.) Tennessee vs. 10.) Ohio State

2.) UConn vs. 15.) East Tennessee State

The Bubble

Last four in

Santa Clara

VCU

SMU

New Mexico

First four out

Indiana

Auburn

Virginia Tech

West Virginia

Next four out

Cincinnati

Stanford

Oklahoma

San Diego State

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