Conference tournament season has begun, which means 31 teams will punch their tickets to the dance between now and Selection Sunday. Many of these teams will be mid-major programs, looking to be this year’s Cinderella. Let’s take a look at some undervalued teams who very well could punch their ticket in the next ten days.
Conference Tournament Winner Picks
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook
Ohio Valley
The Pick: Little Rock +390
Based on the odds, Little Rock is the 3rd most likely team to win this tournament after SE Missouri State and SIU Edwardsville. In terms of head to head action, Little Rock split the regular season series 1-1 with both teams.
Per KenPom, Little Rock is actually 2nd in the conference in overall Net Rating and 1st in the conference in Defensive Rating (95th in the nation). Aside from the best defense in the conference, Little Rock happens to have six players averaging between 9-16 points per game. Little Rock has not won the Ohio Valley conference tournament since joining in 2022.
Southern Conference
The Pick: Samford +400
Based on the odds, Samford is the 3rd most likely team to win this tournament, behind Chattanooga and UNC Greensboro. In head to head action, Samford split the season series 1-1 with both teams. Noticing any themes here?
Per KenPom, Samford is actually 1st in the conference in overall Net Rating. Per Evan Miya’s Relative Rankings, Samford is neck and neck with Chattanooga at the top of the conference.
Most importantly, Samford is a fun team to root for because of their play style. Samford plays extremely fast (17th nationally in Evan Miya’s True Tempo Rating) and they chuck a ton of threes (12th in the nation with 29.7 3-point attempts per game).
Missouri Valley Conference
The Pick: Drake +115
This pick might be disappointing based on the odds, but the value is undeniable. Drake is the favorite to win the Missouri Valley Conference, but their advanced analytics make a plus odds future seem too good to pass up.
Per KenPom, Drake is 60th in the country in Net Rating, while the next highest MVC team is all the way down at 93rd. Per Evan Miya, Drake has the highest Offensive and Defensive Ratings in the conference, both by a significant margin.
Drake is 27-3 overall on the year and has won 15 of their last 16 games. Getting these guys at plus odds might just be the most valuable bet of them all.