Seton Hall and Texas were the biggest movers in the week. As February looms, it is time for teams to show out or be shut out of the tournament.
The Pirates have lost four straight, with two of those losses coming to Butler and DePaul. They are now 4-5 in conference and looking uphill at a spot in the tournament. Better start climbing.
The Longhorns beat Georgia Saturday, 87-67. They now have three quad one wins this season and their NET ranking of 38 helps. Feels like deja vu of last year if you ask me.
ACC:
Safely in the tournament: Duke, Virginia, North Carolina, Clemson, Louisville
Should be in: Miami (FL), SMU, NC State
Bubble: Virginia Tech, Cal, Stanford
New entry: Cal
After their win against Stanford on the farm, Cal enters into the bubble conversation. Similar to Texas, the Golden Bears have three quad one wins, but their NET ranking of 52 hurts the overall resume. If they can beat a few more quad one opponents, they might be to hard to keep out.
Louisville is starting to slide. The Cardinals are teetering on the edge of safely in the tournament and should be in. They are 4-4 in the ACC and need to get things together before they get out of hand.
SEC:
Safely in the tournament: Vanderbilt, Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Tennessee
Should be in: Georgia, Kentucky, Auburn, Texas A&M
Bubble: Texas, Missouri
Dropped out: LSU
LSU dropped off the bubble. The Tigers had a promising start of the season and couldn’t translate it to conference play.
The rest of the SEC is interesting. The four teams listed as should be in have impressed recently, but not enough to be safely in yet. If any of them lose a few, they will quickly find themselves on the bubble.
Big Ten:
Safely in the tournament: Michigan, Nebraska, Purdue, Michigan State, Illinois
Should be in: Iowa, Wisconsin
Bubble: Ohio State, UCLA, USC, Indiana
Dropped Down: USC
This is the time of the year where teams in each conference start to clarify their spot in the tournament. After winning the Maui Invitational, USC was a top 25 team. That was before they had to face the Big Ten gauntlet.
They aren’t the only teams who are trying to solidify their place in the tournament.
Wisconsin is hanging on to their win against Michigan (their only quad one win) and Iowa’s 4-4 conference record doesn’t give Hawkeye fans relief.
Seton Hall is proof that if you have a couple bad games, things will flip on you quickly.
Big 12:
Safely in the tournament: Arizona, Houston, Iowa State, Texas Tech, BYU, Kansas
Should be in: UCF
Bubble: TCU
Dropped out: Oklahoma State and Baylor
The Big 12 is clearing out to be a six or seven bid league.
The most intriguing team: UCF
The Knights are the only team outside of the top 20, but in range of the tournament.
TCU is starting to make its way onto the bubble, but their three quad one wins are carrying them at the moment. The Horned Frogs have a quad three and a quad four loss weigh them down.
UCF and TCU cannot lose to teams outside of the top six in the conference and need to pick up a few more quad one wins while they are at it.
Big East:
Safely in the tournament: UConn and St. John’s
Should be in: Villanova
Bubble: Seton Hall, Creighton
When your conference is struggling, everything is harder to gain traction. You have less leeway and need to have a better record because your strength of schedule is taking a hit.
I always say it as a seesaw.
You need to be able to balance record with strength of opponent. Since the Big East is lacking in strength of opponent, that needs to be balanced out with wins.
Creighton and Seton Hall have not been able to beat teams outside of the top three, so their chances at a tournament bid are sinking fast with little opportunity upcoming to overcome that.
Hard times have fallen for the conference that Villanova had to be cautious as well.
The Wildcats have UConn and St. John’s one more time at the end of February. If they can’t win one of those two, their only win against a team in the field is an overtime win against Wisconsin.
Nova needs to make sure they win the games they are supposed to win.
Mid-Major:
Safely in the tournament: Gonzaga and Saint Louis
Should be in: Utah State and St. Mary’s
Bubble: New Mexico, San Diego State, Santa Clara, Miami (OH), George Mason
It’s harder to figure out where the mid-major teams go. They have a shorter leash than power conference teams, but they also win the games they must win because they don’t face as tough of a gauntlet and it’s all they have.
Saint Mary’s is 19-3, but everyone in the WCC are quad three or four games outside of Santa Clara and Gonzaga. If the Gaels lose one or two of those games they are out.
Utah State is messing with danger. The Aggies have losses to Grand Canyon and UNLV at home.
The committee year in and year out seemingly find anything they can to keep mid major teams from getting an at-large spot.