Auburn (15-13) (NET: 36)
5-11 (Q1), 2-2 (Q2), 2-0 (Q3), 6-0 (Q4)
Growing pains were expected at Auburn as Steven Pearl succeeded his father as head coach. The team lost a ton of talent from last year’s Final Four run and simply hasn’t played at the same level in the SEC. Still, despite a troubling record, Auburn still has a chance at the Big Dance.
Those Quad 1 wins are clearly carrying Auburn’s resume and the most impressive was that upset win at Florida back in late January. The Tigers also beat St. John’s in Las Vegas and have home wins over Arkansas, Kentucky, and NC State that are all currently Quad 1 as well.
The wins are impressive and there are no really bad losses, but the defeats are really stacking up here. Auburn has lost six of their last seven games and haven’t looked great since upsetting the Gators a month ago. That includes a recent Quad 2 loss at Mississippi State as they’ve fallen to just 6-9 in the SEC standings.
The remainder of the regular season isn’t rife with resume-building chances, but Auburn needs to get back on track in home games against Ole Miss and LSU. There’s one final Quad 1 game at Alabama and upending their rivals on the road would certainly help this resume.
Belmont (25-4) (NET: 53)
0-0 (Q1), 5-1 (Q2), 11-3 (Q3), 9-0 (Q4)
There’s a long list of quality mid-majors once again this season who are likely missing out on the Big Dance if they falter in their league tournaments. Belmont has been really incredible for a majority of the season and thanks to their metrics still have an outside shot, though it’s pretty precarious.
The Bruins haven’t played a single Quad 1 game, but do have a marvelous 5-1 mark against Quad 2 foes. A big win at UC Irvine was the first and they’ve added to that number during MVC play, with road wins over other contenders in Northern Iowa, UIC, Southern Illinois, and Murray State.
A lot of winning has occurred in Nashville, but those three Quad 3 losses likely sink the Bruins’ realistic chances. They lost tough home games against Richmond and Southern Illinois and were upset at Indiana State right before New Year’s. All of these contests were over a month and a half ago but it plagues the resume nonetheless.
It’s the final stretch of regular season play and there isn’t too much left to prove for the regular season champions of the MVC. Belmont can boost their metrics a bit more with a Quad 2 game at Illinois State on Saturday but it’s almost certainly a lost cause if they can’t win Arch Madness and get that automatic bid.