Nevada (19-9) (NET: 62)
1-5 (Q1), 5-2 (Q2), 10-0 (Q3), 3-2 (Q4)
Had this article come out a week ago, Nevada might have been seen as an outside shot at the bubble and could’ve been completely ignored. However, the Wolf Pack are playing better basketball and trying to shake off some really atrocious performances that have really impacted this resume.
Nevada’s past week has been phenomenal, getting their first Quad 1 win over Utah State last weekend before a great performance against New Mexico. Other Quad 2 wins include a nice showing against Boise State alongside road wins at Colorado State, Fresno State, and Washington State over a month ago.
Unfortunately, it’s those two Quad 4 losses that’ll likely be the death knell for the Wolf Pack. This team lost at home to UC Davis back in mid-November and dropped a real head scratcher against San Jose State just over a week ago. Had they won those two games, this team might even be on the right side of the bubble even with a lack of Quad 1 success.
The next two games for Nevada are Quad 2 road games and must-wins against UNLV and Wyoming, two teams they’ve already beaten in Reno. If the Wolf Pack don’t win out in the regular season, then it’s less than a snowball’s chance. A few wins in the MWC Tournament might also be necessary.
New Mexico (20-7) (NET: 44)
1-5 (Q1), 7-1 (Q2), 4-1 (Q3), 8-0 (Q4)
You likely won’t see a big selection of MWC teams in the Big Dance but New Mexico is yet another that’s caught attention this season. It’s year one for Eric Olen in Albuquerque and he’s certainly done a standup job keeping the Lobos right in these conversations both in their league and at the national level.
While the Lobos would love more Quad 1 wins, they did get a nice victory at VCU back in December. That came just after a win over Santa Clara that’s still considered Quad 2 and is part of a long list of those wins. New Mexico has also knocked out Grand Canyon, Mississippi State, and Nevada among others to build intrigue on their resume.
Their fourth game of the season was a tough road loss at rival New Mexico State that remains Quad 3. Whether or not that alone can sink their resume, it’s still disappointing three months later. The only other Quad 2 loss was a 1-point defeat at the hands of Boise State just a couple weeks ago. They’ve come up just shy a few times on the road in Quad 1 games, including earlier this week at Nevada.
Saturday brings a very important game against fellow bubble team San Diego State, with the Aztecs having beaten the Lobos just over a month ago. However, the Lobos do still have a Quad 1 chance as they visit conference leader Utah State to finish the regular season and probably need to win one or both of those contests.