This is the first of what will be a weekly article.
To preface the terms used in the bubble watch articles: safely in the tournament, should be in and bubble teams.
Safely in the tournament: These are the teams that have solidified themselves into the tournament. They can face some rough patches and still be ok in the tournament.
Should be in: Teams who are in-between the safely in and bubble. They are a loss or two away from falling into the bubble.
Bubble: No matter what bracketologists say, your fingers and toes are crossed, hoping to get one of the final spots in the tournament. Usually at this point, the teams on the bubble have a big enough weakness on their resume that could hold them out of the tournament.
ACC:
Safely in the tournament: Duke, Virginia, Louisville, Clemson, North Carolina
Should be in: Miami (FL), SMU, NC State
Bubble: Virginia Tech, Stanford
Status: Up from last year
This is not the same ACC as last year. To put it into comparison, the ACC had less bids than the Big East in the tournament. This year, they are expected to double up the Big East in bids.
Duke is the clear favorite to win the conference. The Blue Devils are a projected one seed and have a matchup in the capital with fellow projected one seed Michigan looming.
Virginia Tech is the most interesting team that is consistently on the bubble. Everytime they do something right, they follow that up by reminding me why they are on the bubble and vice versa.
After a hot start, North Carolina lost three of their first four games in January. They are still safely in the tournament, but one or two more losses will slide them into should be in territory.
SEC:
Safely in the tournament: Vanderbilt, Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Tennessee
Should be in: Georgia, Kentucky, Auburn, Texas A&M
Bubble: Texas, Missouri, LSU
Status: Down from last year
The paradigm set by the SEC last year has shifted to a balanced landscape. The SEC’s record-breaking 14 bids will most likely drop down into the single digits this year.
After starting 16-0, Vanderbilt has lost three straight and parody has been the beck and call in the conference since then.
Texas A&M and Florida are tied atop the conference. The Aggies have won close games against mediocre SEC teams. Their conference gets tougher in February, while the Gators are finding their rhythm in the second half of the season.
The bubble teams are all on the wrong side of the bubble. Texas is holding on to their win against Vanderbilt and Missouri is holding on to their win against Florida. Both will need to add to their resume, while LSU is sinking like an anchor to the bottom of the ocean.
Big Ten:
Safely in the tournament: Michigan, Nebraska, Purdue, Michigan State, Illinois
Should be in: Iowa, Wisconsin, USC
Bubble: Ohio State, UCLA, Indiana
Status: Slightly up from last year
It will be interesting to see how far one of the best wins in the country can take Wisconsin.
Their 91-88 win against Michigan skyrocketed their resume from being just off the bubble and out to being a 9 or 10 seed.
Ohio State and UCLA are alive and well on the bubble. The Bruins struggled during their road stretch, but seven of their 12 games are at home and two of the five road games are at USC and at Oregon.
The Buckeyes have a good resume with some questionable losses to Pitt and Washington. If the Buckeyes continue to play how they have been recently, they will be fine.Ohio State and UCLA are sitting at 35 and 40 respectively in the NET, so the resumes are in their favor.
Big 12:
Safely in the tournament: Arizona, Houston, Iowa State, Texas Tech, BYU, Kansas
Should be in: UCF
Bubble: Oklahoma State, Baylor
Status: Even from last year
The Big 12 is a top heavy conference. UCF is playing well and they will have opportunities to improve their resume, but the quality wins they can get are either top 20 wins or wins against bubble teams.
Baylor started 1-5 and Oklahoma State started 2-4 in conference play. Both teams need to figure it out or forget about the tournament.
Big East:
Safely in the tournament: UConn, St. John’s, Villanova
Should be in: None
Bubble: Seton Hall, Creighton
Status: Slightly down from last year
It’s hard to be not as good as last year and somehow the Big East found a way to be.
Villanova is a nice improvement for the conference, but Creighton lost years of continuity with Ryan Kalkbrenner and Steven Ashworth. The Bluejays still have time to turn it around, but Sunday we will be seven weeks from Selection Sunday so tick tick.
Seton Hall has a thin line for error. In a conference where there are only a few opportunities for quality wins, their 1-2 quad one record and 4-3 quad two record is enough to keep them out.
Could be a grim year for the Big East.
Mid-Major:
Safely in the tournament: Gonzaga, Saint Louis, Utah State, Saint Mary’s
Should be in: None
Bubble: New Mexico, San Diego State, Santa Clara, Miami (OH), George Mason
The biggest question: Is Miami’s (Ohio not Florida) resume good enough for them to receive an at-large spot?
It would answer a much larger question fans have asked for a while : How well does a traditional mid-major need to be to receive an at-large spot?
Miami (OH) is 20-0 with a NET ranking of 51. They are 0-0 against quad one opponents and 2-0 against quad two opponents. 14 of their 20 games were against Non Division-I teams or quad four opponents.
They also haven’t lost, are second in the country in scoring with 94.6 points per game (0.2 ppg behind Georgia), lead the nation with 54% shooting from the field and have seven guys shooting 39.4% from three or better (with at least ten three-point attempts).
The Redhawks are taking care of business and the NET rankings do an accurate job to balance out the success on the court with the weak strength of schedule.
We have seen the Missouri Valley get multiple bids (2021) so it’s not out of the question that the MAC could get two.
If Miami (OH) has one loss and it’s a close game in the conference title, do they get an at-large spot?