In one month, the college basketball world will be in the throes of championship week. The goal is to have already developed an NCAA Tournament resume that makes Championship Week irrelevant. What about the teams that are not so lucky, and those teams that find themselves on the bubble?
Those teams are going to need the rest of the season and likely championship week to keep improving their NCAA Tournament resume to find themselves on the right side of the bubble. Many of the teams on the bubble lack quality wins, and with it being the middle of February, the clock is ticking.Â
In the latest version of the Buy and Sell, let's take a look at some teams who are on the bubble and review their current tournament resumes. A buy rating is for teams that will ultimately make the tournament. That means a rating of Sell is a team that won’t make the tournament come Selection Sunday. Let's get into it.
Ohio State Buckeyes - Sell
After the loss to Virginia on Saturday night, Ohio State is running out of chances to “impress” the tournament committee. The Buckeyes may end up with a large number of wins, but those wins will not have much substance come Selection Sunday. Â
Heading into the last two weeks of February, Ohio State has lost to Michigan twice, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Illinois, and North Carolina. They held late leads against North Carolina, Nebraska, and Virginia. Finishing even one of those wins would have significantly strengthened the Buckeyes' resume and earned them a tournament bid. It would have also offset the absolutely awful loss to Pitt.
We know about the missed opportunities for Ohio State, but what does the resume actually look like? Ohio State is sitting in a prime bubble position in the NET at 38, but doesn’t have a single Quad 1 win. The rest of the schedule presents a favorable opportunity for Ohio State to acquire some quad 1 wins and get itself on the right side of the bubble, but going 5-2 in this stretch seems unlikely given what Ohio State has put on video this year.
Games with Wisconsin, at Michigan State, at Iowa, Purdue, at Penn State, and Indiana remain. The country needs Bruce Thornton in the NCAA Tournament, and it has been far too long for the Buckeyes in the Big Dance. It is going to take a Herculean effort to get to the right side of the cutline, and the opportunities are there, but it doesn’t look like a tournament appearance is going to happen for Ohio State again this season.
Missouri Tigers - Buy
Two years removed from the Tigers going 0-20 in the SEC, head coach Dennis Gates has Missouri primed to return to the NCAA Tournament. However, if the tournament started today, Missouri would likely be on the outside looking in, one of the first teams out.  Â
Missouri has a great collection of wins, highlighted by its victory over the Florida Gators. In addition, the Tigers have beaten Kentucky, Auburn, and Texas A&M. Overall, that's a nice collection of wins, but it's the losses that will ultimately be their demise if the Tigers don’t make it. The losses to Notre Dame, Ole Miss, and LSU were not great. There is no shame in losing to Kansas, Georgia, and Alabama. The 43-point loss to Illinois is a metric killer, and Missouri has a lot of wins to help make up for it.
Looking ahead, the Tigers still have games against Vanderbilt, Arkansas twice, and Tennessee. Every game is an opportunity in the SEC, and if Missouri can get two of those games, especially against ranked opponents, that should be enough to get them into the tournament. I do like Missouri’s chances, mostly because the rest of the bubble can’t get out of their own way. The NET of 66 isn’t great, but the 3 quad 1 wins, including the Quad 1A win against Florida, is a good place to be, especially on the Bubble. Missouri needs to get to 5 quad 1 wins to feel truly safe.
Virginia Tech Hokies - Sell
The Hokies are going to be an interesting team to follow down the stretch because they can not seem to stay consistent and go on a winning streak to secure a tournament bid. Last week, Virginia Tech secured a road win over Clemson, a result that moved the needle and would have gotten them back into the tournament, but then the Hokies turned right around and lost to Florida State.
Now that I write this, the Hokies will likely beat Miami on the road Tuesday night to get themselves back in position to make the tournament. The inconsistencies have not been limited to conference play either. Virginia Tech has losses to Saint Mary’s and VCU in the non-conference. Those two losses add to the already questionable losses to Wake Forest, Stanford, and Florida State. The Hokies also have some fantastic wins over Virginia, at Clemson, and George Mason—no surprise they find themselves on the bubble.
The ACC is much improved this year and will provide Virginia Tech with ample opportunities to strengthen its resume. The Hokies are currently 56th in the NET and are 3-7 in Quad 1 games. However, the games at Miami, North Carolina, and Virginia will provide enough substance to comfortably get the Hokies into the tournament. However, can they find some consistency and do enough to make the tournament?
New Mexico Lobos- Buy
If the season ended today, the Lobos would likely find themselves in the NCAA Tournament. They would likely be sent to Dayton, but New Mexico, and head coach Eric Olen would still be part of the event. This is the one year in the last handful of years when the Mountain West is down and may only get two teams in the tournament, but that doesn’t mean they don't have bubble teams.
Coach Olen is a brilliant coach who has taken a roster full of players that had not played a single minute for New Mexico and has them right on the cut line in his first year as the head man in New Mexico. The Lobos currently hold wins over Mississippi State, Santa Clara, VCU, and Grand Canyon. That isn't a bad resume, but the problem is that New Mexico hasn't beaten anyone in the Mountain West who is also going to be in the tournament. The Lobos have lost to San Diego State, Utah State, and Boise State twice. The two Boise State losses are holding the resume back.
New Mexico currently has a NET of 44 and has one quad 1 win. The rest of the season offers 4 quad 1 opportunities for New Mexico. If they want any reasonable shot at making the NCAA Tournament, they probably need to win at least two of them, and a win over San Diego State at home is a must. The bubble is terrible, and right now,w New Mexico has better metrics than many of the bubble teams, which is helping them. Any win will help, but any loss will also matter. Coach Olen is going to get it done.
San Diego State Aztecs - Sell
The Mountain West is down again, as mentioned with New Mexico. One of the main reasons for the down season is that San Diego State has not displayed its usual dominance over the league. The Aztecs are currently in a good position to hear their name called on Selection Sunday. The resume is not nearly as strong as some other teams', but it would still be good enough if the names were released today.
It is very odd to see San Diego State on the bubble, even though it is the second season in a row. The premier program in the Mountain West has faced a couple of seasons that have not lived up to its lofty expectations. San Diego State has wins against New Mexico and Boise State. There are no wins that stand out for the Aztecs, and there are some questionable losses.
The 40-point loss to Michigan and the 23-point loss to Arizona are not good for the Aztecs' metrics. A loss to Baylor has not aged well but outside of that,, the resume is pretty ho-hum. The NET ranking currently sits at 41, and San Diego State has one quad 1 win. The Aztecs have three quad 1 opportunities remaining and could secure a bid in the coming weeks, but San Diego State doesn't look like a team that will get it done and hear its name called. They may be headed to the Crown this year.