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Chance at beating No. 1: 3 keys to Florida State Basketball pulling off upset over No. 1 Florida Gators

ByTristan Freeman
Nov 2, 2026; Tampa, Florida, USA;  Florida State Seminoles head coach Luke Loucks looks on during the first half against the Florida A&M Rattlers at Benchmark International Arena.  Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images
Nov 2, 2026; Tampa, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles head coach Luke Loucks looks on during the first half against the Florida A&M Rattlers at Benchmark International Arena. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Head coach Luke Loucks is looking to take a step forward with Florida State Basketball, turning them into an NCAA Tournament team. After easy wins over Troy and Florida A&M to open the season, they take on preseason No. 1 Florida, coming off a season-opening victory over fellow ACC program, Miami. 

The Seminoles will be major underdogs in this matchup but the hope is that they can pull off a big upset to send shockwaves throughout college basketball. But what do they need to do to pull off the upset? Here are some keys to the game for Florida State.

1. Marcis Ponder vs Rueben Chinyelu

Florida is viewed as having the best frontcourt in the nation, led by the reigning SEC Defensive Player of the Year, Chinyelu. The rebounding ability of the frontcourt, especially on offense, is what makes the Gators so strong. The best chance for the Seminoles to offset that is Ponder, a 7-foot big man who weighs nearly 300 pounds, averaging a double-double in his first two games. He had 26 rebounds in the preseason against another SEC team (Auburn), can he do something similar versus the vaunted Gator bigs?

2. Shon Abaev breakout game

Another guy who had a big preseason game was Abaev, a potential breakout candidate. The former five-star prospect had limited minutes at Cincy as a freshman but is set to have a larger role at FSU. He’s currently producing 13 ppg for the team as a starting wing, shooting 35% from the field. It would be ideal for him to have a nice individual outing to help with their upset chances. 

3. Three-point defense

Last year, Florida State was a team that shot a lot of threes but gave up a lot of them, ranking in the bottom-20 nationally in threes allowed in both makes and attempts. They’re off to a similar start this season but will have to be careful against a Florida squad shooting 43% from deep in two games. Knowing how well they rebound the ball off misses, FSU will need to not only avoid giving up a lot of long balls, but also making sure the second chance opportunities are limited.

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