Conference chaos leaves protected seeds less safe in the latest field projection

Conference play this week has led to undefeated teams falling opening the door for teams to secure one of those coveted protected seeds.
Kansas Jayhawks Basketball
Kansas Jayhawks Basketball | Evert Nelson/The Capital-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Amidst the doldrums of a January winter, the fires of conference play are burning bright to keep us warm. On back-to-back nights, Iowa State and Vanderbilt were knocked from the ranks of the unbeaten, and both proceeded to lose on Saturday as well/, causing chaos at the top of the bracket. Kansas and Texas were the big beneficiaries of those games, picking up their signature wins this season.

Believe it or not, we are about six weeks out before conference tournaments begin. That means it's starting to get late earlier for some tournament hopefuls. With Iowa State's loss, at least two top seeds are up for grabs right now, with five or six teams eyeing those spots. As we look towards the cut line, there's more jockeying than a roller derby jam. Let's take a look at the latest shake-up.

West Region (San Jose)

San Diego

1.) Arizona vs. 16.) Bethune Cook./UMES

8.) USC vs. 9.) Saint Mary's

Philadelphia

5.) Clemson vs. 12.) Miami (OH)

4.) Florida vs. 13.) Liberty

Portland

6.) Villanova vs. 11.) San Diego State

3.) Gonzaga vs. 14.) North Dakota State

Oklahoma City

7.) SMU vs. 10.) Auburn

2.) Nebraska vs. 15.) Portland State

The No. 1 overall seed resides in the West Region, where the Arizona Wildcats are the top seed. After securing another road win (their 3rd in Quad 1) at UCF on Saturday, the Wildcats are now 18-0 and have a metrics average of 2.8, which puts them at the top of the seed list. Also in the West are two of the biggest surprises in college basketball. Travis Steele’s Miami (OH) Redhawks are the No. 12 seed and one of three remaining undefeated teams in the country at 16-0. Also undefeated is the No. 2 seed in the region. The Nebraska Cornhuskers are 18-0 with back-to-back games with Michigan and Illinois on the horizon.

East Region (Washington, D.C.)

Philadelphia

1.) UConn vs. 16.) Navy

8.) Iowa vs. 9.) Utah State

Tampa

5.) Louisville vs. 12.) Florida Atlantic

4.) Virginia vs. 13.) UNC-Wilmington

Buffalo

6.) Arkansas vs. 11.) Yale

3.) Michigan State vs. 14.) Queens

St. Louis

7.) Georgia vs. 10.) Ohio State

2.) Iowa State vs. 15.) Saint Peter's

The 18-1 UConn Huskies head up the East Region after escaping a test against Georgetown on Saturday. The Huskies have some of the best resume metrics in the country, with an average of 2.6, as well as being the No. 1 team in Wins Above Bubble. UConn also has five true road wins, all of which are in the first two quads.  Let’s take a moment to acknowledge what Ryan Odom has done in his first season with the Virginia Cavaliers. The Hoos are 16-2 with top-20 metrics and four quad-1 road wins as they continue to climb towards a No. 3 seed.

South Region (Houston)

Greenville

1.) Duke vs. 16.) Troy

8.) Miami vs. 9.) Wisconsin

San Diego

5.) Alabama vs. 12.) Stephen F. Austin

4.) Texas Tech vs. 13.) Hawaii

Portland

6.) St. John's vs. 11.) Texas/Virginia Tech

3.) BYU vs. 14.) Wright State

St. Louis

7.) UCF vs. 10.) Texas A&M

2.) Purdue vs. 15.) East Tennessee State

With Iowa State’s losses, it’s the Duke Blue Devils who return to the top seed line. Duke is the top seed in the South Region with a strength of schedule that is the 5th best in the country. They also have an 8-1 record in quad 1 games, with their only loss being by one point on a neutral floor to Texas Tech. Duke may have the toughest No. 2-No. 4 seeds of any of the four regions. Purdue, with the best point guard in the country, Braden Smith, is the No. 2 seed. Potential No. 1 NBA draft pick AJ Dybantsa leads No. 3 BYU, and the No. 4 seed is a Texas Tech team that just knocked off BYU by 13 points on Saturday.

Midwest Region (Chicago)

Buffalo

1.) Michigan vs. 16.) Tenn.-Martin/Long Island

8.) Kentucky vs. 9.) Seton Hall

Tampa

5.) Kansas vs. 12.) Murray State

4.) Vanderbilt vs. 13.) Utah Valley

Greenville

6.) North Carolina vs. 11.) Oklahoma State/Missouri

3.) Illinois vs. 14.) High Point

Oklahoma City

7.) Tennessee vs. 10.) Saint Louis

2.) Houston vs. 15.) Vermont

Despite suffering their first loss of the season, the Michigan Wolverines are still on the top line as the No. 1 seed in the Midwest Region. The Wolverines have an elite resume, boasting top-10 metrics across the board, along with six Quad 1 wins and a top-15 strength of schedule. If the Wolverines can hold serve over their next three, back-to-back tilts with Nebraska and Michigan State could have the top overall seed back in play. One of the more dangerous teams in the Midwest Region is the No. 5 Kansas Jayhawks. The Jayhawks stumbled to find their footing at times with Darryn Peterson in and out of the lineup, but he’s averaged 21 points in wins over Iowa State and Baylor in their last two games.

The Bubble

Last four in

The last four teams in the field include a couple of SEC teams. Texas bounced back from losses to Mississippi State and Tennessee to win at Alabama and give Vanderbilt its first loss of the year. Missouri’s league play is a head-scratcher. The Tigers are 3-2 with wins over Kentucky, Florida, and Auburn, but the losses are to Ole Miss and LSU. Missouri’s former Big 12 rival, Oklahoma State, is also in this group. The Cowboys have a win over UCF, but have struggled to get that signature league win as of yet. Lastly, the Virginia Tech Hokies just missed the chance to be more securely in the field after falling to fellow bubble teams Wake Forest, Stanford, and SMU by a total of five points.

Just missed the cut

The first four teams out of the field include two teams that know Will Wade well, his current team, North Carolina State, and one of his former teams, LSU. Beginning Big 12 play, 1-4 has knocked the Baylor Bears out of the field, and New Mexico’s loss at San Diego State on Saturday knocked the Lobos out and put SDSU into the field. The next four teams out of the field would make Bill Walton weep, as it’s a former Pac-12 party. Rivals Stanford and California fall here due to slow starts in league play. The UCLA Bruins join them after missing big chances against Iowa, Wisconsin, and Ohio State in Big Ten play. The Indiana Hoosiers round out this group after three straight losses to Nebraska, Michigan State, and Iowa.

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