Dayton's struggles, Darrion Williams emergence among key A-10 and ACC storylines

Here we are, already at the halfway point of conference play, and it really feels like it has gone by fast this year. But at the nine-game mark for most teams, both the A-10 and ACC regular season champions have a clear favorite. Saint Louis looks like an unstoppable juggernaut following a demolition of Dayton, and may be able to cut down the nets before they ever face their closest contender in George Mason. Duke is undefeated as well, though not looking dominant, and the Blue Devils already have a multi-game lead on everyone except a plucky Clemson team they will soon play at home.

Beyond that, everything is a mess. No one expected the Tigers to be sitting in second, or Notre Dame and Wake Forest to be tied for last (with Pitt) in the ACC. And the A-10 is even more confusing, thanks to a hot stretch from St. Joe's, a 0-5 St. Bonaventure start, and more. So for this week's edition of the Three, I'll dive into the three most intriguing questions for the next month and a half in each conference. Also, I'll be previewing the Weekday Game To Watch, since this posted Tuesday, rather than the standard Friday.

Atlantic Ten

Three Major Questions:

Who will give Saint Louis a February scare?

The Billikens have a pair of huge roadblocks standing between them and an A-10 title, a home rematch with VCU (February 20), and a trip to George Mason on the final day of the season. Between now and that game with the Patriots, Saint Louis' schedule doesn't look particularly daunting, with three home games against teams in the bottom half of the standings and a trip to Loyola Chicago. The road slate is tricky, but Dayton's current struggles make that game look easier, and Rhode Island has played its worst basketball at home this year.

There may, in fact, be just one dangerous game that the Billikens could be caught overlooking, especially given the current momentum and celebration that has surrounded last week's stunning comeback against George Washington and the rivalry blowout of Dayton. On Tuesday, Saint Louis heads down to Davidson and the former house of horrors known as Belk Arena, a place that the Billikens didn't win at until the Wildcats' ninth season in the conference in 2023 (they've since won a second time). With the Davidson defense coming off its best run of performances this season, Saint Louis better be careful not to sleep on this game (more below). If they can get through it, a 17-0 start to A-10 play really starts to look like a possibility.

Is Dayton headed towards a collapse?

After a 5-0 start to A-10 play made the Flyers look like prime contenders, a sobering four-game losing streak appears to have possibly broken spirits along the Miami River. Losing a pair of competitive games in Philadelphia is one thing (that frequently happens to Dayton), but a blown fifteen-point lead at home to Rhode Island and a completely non-competitive showing versus Saint Louis have really started a spiral.

It's the underlying stats that show signs of possible deterioration, as opposed to a bad stretch. Dayton thrived on dominating the turnover battle, winning sixteen of the first nineteen games. They've lost in that department in the last three. They've shot the lowest amount of free throws (72) of any four-game run, while opponents took the most (113) that they have all season. The inconsistent three-point shooting that has burned the Flyers throughout the year has really only cost them the La Salle game (13%), and it has since normalized. Even a fantastic win over George Washington no longer looks as impressive as it did, thanks to the Revolutionaries almost reaching a point of concern themselves. With road games at VCU and George Mason coming over the next two weeks, Dayton will have to show real signs of improvement soon, or this may end up being a bottom-half A-10 team.

Who is the best guard in the A-10?

It was clear in the preseason that centers would rule the A-10, and the best guard championship belt would change hands plenty of times. St. Bonaventure's Buddy Simmons seized it opening week after a fantastic national streaming performance to kick off the season. George Mason's Kory Mincy then claimed it for well over a month, but the belt was vacated after a brutal five-game scoring run (11.6 ppg) early in conference play. And no one had clearly taken it until this week.

St. Joe's Derek Simpson has come out of nowhere to claim the interim title, rising from being the Hawks' third-best guard early in the season to running away with the A-10 assist lead in conference play. Over the current 6-1 stretch that has completely shifted the season in North Philadelphia, Simpson has averaged 18.3 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 7.1 apg as he takes the driver's seat for the top A-10 guard title. Mincy likely sits as the top contender, as things have turned around with his best week of the season (19 pts, 6 asts vs Davidson; 22 pts vs St Bonaventure). Fordham's Dejour Reaves has the best stats, but suffers from being on a bottom-half team.

The race is beyond those three is still wide open, with killer scorers like Simmons and Terrence Hill Jr (VCU), two way menaces De'Shayne Montgomery (Dayton) and Tyler Cochran (Rhode Island), and the Duquesne scorer/creator duo of Tarence Guinyard and Jimmie Williams all still candidates to reach the summit with a huge close to the season. Lastly, a shout out to Saint Louis' Trey Green, Quentin Jones and Dion Brown, all of whom may have had a chance with a bigger role on a lesser team.

Game Of The Week: #21 Saint Louis 79, George Washington 76

Robbie Avila's game winning three capped a terrific fourteen point comeback for the Billikens to stay undefeated in A-10 play. It was Avila's finest performance in a Saint Louis uniform (22 pts, 7 rebs, 5 asts), although Trey Green's 6-10 from three may have been just as important, as he kept the game from getting out of control early on. George Washington star Rafael Castro was a tremendous adversary for Avila until he got caught flat footed on a pair of late three pointers, and he set a career high with 18 rebounds. Given the context of the Billikens' extending their win streak to fourteen games and ascending into the AP top twenty after this, this may have been the most important A-10 game of the first three months.

Statline Of The Week: Trey Green (Saint Louis): 23 points (7-11 3pt), 5 rebounds, 4 assists in 102-71 win over Dayton

Weeknight Game To Watch: #19 Saint Louis at Davidson, Tuesday at 9:00 on CBSSN

As mentioned above, this has real trap game potential for Saint Louis coming off of the high of a momentus week and heading to a Charlotte area coming off of historic snowfall, just as Davidson's defense really begins to round into form. The most important matchup will likely be however the Billikens decide to deal with the still red hot Roberts Blums, who just dropped a career high 23 points on Richmond (Kellan Thames chamber of hell?). Meanwhile, the Wildcats come in having held three straight potent offenses (VCU, George Mason and Richmond) to well below average performances from deep, so can they slow down Saint Louis, who is a whopping 46.2% (!!!!!!!!!) from three in A-10 play?

Sickos Game To Watch: St. Bonaventure at Dayton, Tuesday at 7:00 on CBBSN

How's this for a Tuesday night doubleheader? An appetizer featuring two teams that should be starting to get desperate to turn things around. As discussed above, Dayton is showing signs that their season could be in trouble, and with the Flyers back in the comfort of home, this is a kitchen sink game that they desperately need to throw everything at. For St. Bonaventure, a hideous 1-6 start gave way to what was almost a great week, beating Duquesne and then leading for the first 38 minutes against George Mason. But a poor performance in crunch time cost the Bonnies the latter game and put them back on the skids. The most important x-factor in this one may be pure will, who really wants to win this win?

This week's 3 Bid League podcast features an interview with Saint Louis star Robbie Avila following the win over George Washington, along with a recap of big games from last week, a draft of the fun A-10 players to watch and a deep dive into Dayton's woes.

ACC

Three Major Questions:

Is Miami Good?

The Hurricanes were firmly on the right side of the bubble (despite the lack of a signature win) before Saturday's home loss to California. With a weak non-conference schedule and a backloaded ACC slate, Miami's prospects were always going to be settled in February, and following a bye and a game with Boston College, the gauntlet begins, with a run of North Carolina (home), NC State (road), Virginia Tech (home) and Virginia (road). A victory in any of those games would immediately displace Wake Forest as the best win on their resume.

In their three games against high level opponents thus far (Florida, BYU, Clemson (0-3)), the weaknesses have been glaring. Miami shot under 30% from three in all of those games, and this typically elite rebounding team lost on the boards twice and was a mere +6 versus the Tigers. There's also the matter of the Hurricanes' foul-happy star Malik Reneau being held under 30 minutes due to foul trouble in all of those games, while fouling out twice. The smartest offenses have been relentlessly attacking Reneau to get him off the floor, and North Carolina and Virginia, in particular, will likely try to do the same. At the moment, Miami has likely done enough to make the NCAA Tournament, but they've yet to prove they are a quality enough team to hold that position.

Has Darrion Williams turned the corner?

After a underwhelming tenure so far for the preseason ACC Player Of The Year (highlighted by an eleven game stretch where he scored in the single digits six (!!!!) times), the Texas Tech transfer just had a monster week, posting a 23 point triple nickel versus Syracuse and putting up another 20 point performance against Wake Forest (while going a combined 10-17 from three). This comes on the heels of one of the ultimate lowlights of the season, a game at Pitt where he was marooned to the corner and basically non-existent, in a 2-8 shooting performance.

Now putting up great performances in wins over a pair of teams that are disappointingly hurtling towards the ACC basement (2-7 ACC record for both) means absolutely nothing if Williams fails to follow it up. Meanwhile, like Miami, NC State has played one of the three weakest ACC schedules through the first half, with SMU, Virginia Tech, Louisville, Miami, North Carolina, Virginia, and Duke all on the second half of the slate. The Wolfpack does possess the elite win at Clemson that has them firmly in the NCAA Tournament at the moment, but they need a few more signature victories in February, and that's not going to happen if Williams can't carry this momentum forward.

"2nd-best" ACC team discussion just an easy way for shows to fill time?

It seems to be the most discussed ACC topic of the past two seasons: who is the top challenger to Duke's supremacy, and I've been guilty of using it as a crutch myself. It was really a prudent topic in the non-conference mess of 2024, where being the league's second best team may have been the only ticket to the NCAA Tournament. But not this year, with the ACC entering February looking at anywhere from six to eleven possible at-large teams. And as the Blue Devils open up a multi-game lead on everyone but Clemson (the third beneficiary of a soft schedule), I find myself increasingly certain that the answer doesn't matter.

The simple fact at this point is that Duke has proven that they are almost certainly going 16-2 in the ACC at worst (barring injury problems), and the next tier of teams in this conference are all too flawed to match that in a deep ACC. So let's answer it once and for all, a few teams have the talent to upset Duke in the one-game chaos of the conference tournament (Virginia, North Carolina, Louisville, SMU, Clemson and maybe NC State on a perfect day) and prevent the Blue Devils from winning both trophies again. All of those teams are fairly even to one another. So let's leave it to the talking heads, because the answer probably won't ever become clear and almost certainly won't matter.

Game Of The Week: #17 Virginia 100, Notre Dame 97 (2OT)

In perhaps the last gasp for Notre Dame to turn around their season and the 2-6 (now 2-8) run in the aftermath of Markus Burton's injury, the Fighting Irish had some huge moments (none better than Cole Certa's deep three that almost won them the game in regulation), but just couldn't topple the Cavaliers at home. Sam Lewis delivered the two signature moments for Virginia, with a three that forced double overtime and that shot that iced away the win in said double overtime. Amidst the role player heroics and a career high 34 points for Certa, the stars shined, with Virginia's Thijs De Ridder adding 32 points of his own and Notre Dame freshman Jalen Haralson continuing to find his way with 20 points and a career high 7 assists.

Statline Of The Week: Quadir Copeland (NC State): 19 points, 4 rebounds, 9 assists, 4 steals in 88-68 win over Syracuse

Weeknight Game To Watch: NC State at SMU, Tuesday at 9:00 on ESPN2

NC State has feasted off of a weak ACC schedule thus far, but did hand Clemson their lone conference loss. This is the Wolfpack's second chance at a big win, heading to Dallas for a scintillating clash of perimeter stars. Two thirds of SMU's starring trio has struggled to find themselves against the top of the ACC since the North Carolina win, with Jaron Pierre Jr averaging 12.3 ppg in the Mustangs' four losses and BJ Edwards coming off a 0 assist game against Louisville. Something will have to give for one these teams to find some big momentum, and the critical matchup towards that may be Quadir Copeland running amok against an SMU defense that gives up the highest assist rate and three point rate in the ACC, finding Darrion Williams and Paul McNeil Jr for those deep shots they love to take.

Sickos Game To Watch: Notre Dame at #20 Louisville, Wednesday at 7:00 on ESPN2

The Cardinals are fully healthy and fresh off of their best performance in ACC play in the SMU victory, when Mikel Brown Jr and Khani Rooths starred in their returns (it was Brown's third game back). Rooths' athleticism and bounce gave the Cardinals an element that they been lacking defensively and at the rim on offense. He'll be a critical factor in the defensive gameplan against Notre Dame's Jalen Haralson, who is turning into more of a true point forward with each passing game. Outside of that, it will be a game of strength versus weakness, with Louisville's perimeter speed advantage and Notre Dame's rebounding edge (thanks almost entirely to Carson Towt).

This week's Up The Coasts podcast takes a full deep dive into North Carolina and the questions that still need to be solved in February.