With the NCAA Tournament Selection Show only two days away and a jammed packed day of key bubble games taking place on Thursday - let's get you caught up on: Who's in? Who's out? And who still has a chance to sneak in the big dance?
*Using latest NET rankings for Quad metrics
INDIANA: 19-13, NET 52, (4-13 Q1 / 5-0 Q2 / 6-0 Q3 / 4-0 Q4 )
Eliminated from Big Ten Tournament - 72-59 loss to Oregon (2nd Round)
Why the Hoosiers Should Get In?
- A sparkling road win at Michigan State, a very solid home win over Purdue & no losses outside of Quad 1 (including 5-0 in Quad 2). An overall strength of schedule that ranks 32nd nationally.
Why the Hoosiers Won't Get In?
- 4-13 in Quad 1 games, and the two wins above represent the ONLY wins over the projected field. 2 wins over the field is a very dangerous number. (Ohio State's loss to Iowa Wednesday really hurt Indiana as IU has two wins over the Buckeyes - which are no longer in the field)
Current Prediction:
- 11 Seed - A trip to Dayton's First Four - but Hoosier fans will be rooting hard against bid thieves this weekend. They aren't in yet and if any bids are stolen over the weekend, it likely would be their spot in the dance.
TEXAS: 19-14, NET 41, (7-9 Q1 / 3-5 Q2 / 2-0 Q3 / 7-0 Q4 )
Advanced to SEC Quarterfinals with - 94-89 2OT win over Texas A&M
Why the Longhorns Should Get In?
- In a year when the bubble is fairly thin, 7 Quad 1 wins looks awfully strong. Those wins include: Kentucky (H), Texas A&M x 2 (N & H), Miss. St (A) & Missouri (H), Oklahoma (A) & Vandy (N). Also zero losses in Quad 3 & 4.
Why the Longhorns Won't Get In?
- A wobbly 3-5 record in Quad 2, and a very weak non-conference strength of schedule (286th nationally) at produced no quality wins. The committee has historically penalized teams for weak non-conference scheduling on Selection Sunday.
Current Prediction:
- 11 Seed - A trip to Dayton's First Four - the 2OT win over Texas A&M, paired with their previous day's win over Vanderbilt means the Longhorns were able to get over the magical four games over .500 mark. Their quality wins are just too strong to ignore.
NORTH CAROLINA: 22-12, NET 36, (1-11 Q1 / 8-0 Q2 / 7-1 Q3 / 6-0 Q4 )
Advanced to ACC Semis with - 68-59 win over Wake Forest
Why the Tar Heels Should Get In?
- Solid neutral court win over UCLA and a dominant 8-0 record in Quad 2 games. Also a fantastic non-conference strength of schedule (8th nationally) and overall 46th ranked schedule for the season.
Why the Tar Heels Won't Get In?
- It's pretty simple - 1-11 vs. Quad 1. So many chances and only one breakthrough. Also, the Quad 3 home loss to Standford. The UCLA win represents their only victory over a team projected in the field.
Current Prediction:
- First Four Out - Only one win over the field is ultimately the deciding factor - for now. But good news Tar Heel fans! You have more chances on the way. Not only would a win over a Cooper Flagg-less Duke team represent another Quad 1 win, but also a trip to the ACC finals. At that point, just win the whole ACC Tournament and guarantee yourself a spot in the big dance.
XAVIER: 21-11, NET 45, (1-9 Q1 / 8-2 Q2 / 5-0 Q3 / 7-0 Q4 )
Eliminated from Big East Tournament - 89-87 loss to Marquette (Quarterfinals)
Why the Musketeers Should Get In?
- Road win at Marquette, a very solid 8-2 record in Quad 2 (including home wins over UConn & Creighton), and no losses in Quads 3 & 4.
Why the Musketeers Won't Get In?
- Only one Quad 1 win, and so many chances for more in a relatively manageable Big East this season. Their 157th-ranked non-conference strength of schedule produced no wins of note as well.
Current Prediction:
- 11 Seed - A trip to Dayton's First Four - Only one Quad 1 win is ultimately a tough metric to overcome. This likely represents the committee's toughest choice, but XU does have three wins over the field and no bad losses. It could go either way, but for now Xavier's the last team in the field. They will be rooting very hard for New Mexico to beat Boise State tomorrow.......that might determine their fate.
SAN DIEGO STATE : 20-9, NET 49, (3-6 Q1 / 5-2 Q2 / 4-1 Q3 / 8-0 Q4 )
Eliminated from Mountain West Tournament - 62-52 loss to Boise State (Quarterfinals)
Why the Aztecs Should Get In?
- In some ways it's simple - their November neutral court win over Houston. Yes, it was before Houston really got going, but in the eyes of the committee, it's all the same. Also, a neutral court win over Creighton, a home win over Mountain West champ New Mexico, and a regular season sweep of Boise State.
Why the Aztecs Won't Get In?
- They were swept by UNLV, including a Quad 3 home loss. The profile is solid but far from spectacular and when they needed a win in the Mountain West Tournament to seal a bid, they were simply outplayed by another bubble foe (Boise State).
Current Prediction:
- 11 Seed - A trip to Dayton's First Four - Ultimately the Houston win paired with their 7th hardest non-conference schedule in the country gets them in. The committee historically favors teams with strong November/December schedules. It hasn't been quite as strong as recent Aztec teams, but they still should be dancing.
BOISE STATE : 22-9, NET 46, (3-5 Q1 / 4-2 Q2 / 5-1 Q3 / 10-1 Q4 )
Advanced to Mountain West Tournament Semis - 62-52 win vs. SDSU
Why the Broncos Should Get In?
- While they don't have a lot of Quad 1 wins, a neutral court win over St. Mary's and a home win over Clemson is a good start. Pair that with a clutch win yesterday in the Mountain West Tournament. A respectable 4-2 Quad 2 record including home wins over tournament teams Utah State & New Mexico.
Why the Broncos Won't Get In?
- No other bubble teams that are right along the cutline have a Quad 4 loss, except for the Broncos. A dismal November neutral court loss to 204th-ranked Boston College. What makes matters worse is they also have a Quad 3 loss to Washington State. Also, their metrics are pretty bumpy and mostly sit in the mid-50s.
Current Prediction:
- First Four Out - It's the Quad 3 & Quad 4 losses. But good news Broncos fans! You aren't done yet. Mountain West Champion - New Mexico awaits and so would a potentially NCAA Tourament tticket with a win. They have to be careful about bid thieves over the next couple of days, but considering their season began with brutal losses early in the non-conference it's pretty remarkable they have gotten to the doorstep of the dance.
OKLAHOMA : 20-13, NET 43, (7-11 Q1 / 4-1 Q2 / 2-1 Q3 / 7-0 Q4 )
Eliminated from SEC Tournament - 85-84 loss to Kentucky (2nd Round)
Why the Sooners Should Get In?
- Very similar to Texas, they have 7 Quad 1 wins including: Arizona (N), Louisville (N), Arkansas (A), Missouri (H), Michigan (N), Georgia (N) & Texas (A). Throw in another two solid home wins over teams projected in the field Miss. State & Vandy. That's a lot of wins over teams that will be dancing.
Why the Sooners Won't Get In?
- A 13-0 non-conference season gave way to a 6-12 SEC record. While conference record is not a metric on the team evaluation sheets by the committee, it is an alarming aspect of their resume. Also, a Quad 3 home loss to LSU stings a bit.
Current Prediction:
- 10-11 Seed - Ultimately their ammount of quality wins, including some away from home cannot be overlooked. While it got very bumpy during the backstretch of SEC season, and their heartbreaking defeat to Kentucky on Thursday night doesn't help - the Sooners held it together just enough to make the dance.