Several years ago, we used to see many more mid-major teams earning at-large bids to the NCAA Tournament. Reliance on the RPI and other outdated metrics has been replaced by the NET, with quadrants and a heavy emphasis on strength of schedule. As a result, these mid-major teams don’t have the same opportunities as power conference programs who are regularly facing each other in league play.
That subtle change has left some great mid-major programs out of March Madness in recent years and a prime example is last season’s Indiana State squad. Josh Schertz built his reputation as a D2 head coach before taking over the Sycamores and building their best team since Larry Bird was on campus more than forty years ago. However, the Sycamores fell in the MVC Tournament and were relegated to the NIT, making it all the way to the title game.
Fast forward eleven months and we could be headed for a similar scenario in the MVC. Last year Drake pulled off that impressive win in the conference tournament and headed to the Big Dance, nearly knocking off Washington State in the first round. This season, those same Bulldogs look pretty different but find themselves in Indiana State’s shoes.
First-year head coach Ben McCollum built his reputation as an elite D2 head coach, winning several national championships before taking the Drake job and finally joining D1 hoops. His first season with the Bulldogs has been magnificent, with the team sitting at 25-3 and atop the MVC standings. Bennett Stirtz has become the top player in the MVC and the Bulldogs should be a shoo-in for the Big Dance.
But this isn’t ten or twenty years ago when teams like this were easy inclusions to March Madness. Drake might have an impressive record but they are only 1-0 in Quad 1 games, simply lacking the opportunities to prove themselves. They beat Vanderbilt in the Charleston Classic for that victory and have a nice win at Kansas State that’s recently gone down to Quad 2, but that’s only half the problem.
All three of Drake’s losses came in league play, including Quad 3 home defeats at the hands of Bradley and Murray State. On the surface, these look like terrible anchors on their resume, but Bradley might be the most talented team in the conference after the Bulldogs and might be the favorite to knock them off at the conference tournament in less than two weeks.
If that happens, Drake will have four losses to MVC teams and won’t have the resume for an at-large bid. They picked up another great Quad 2 win at Northern Iowa on Sunday, though their NET was just 58 before that performance. They simply don’t have the ability to get their metrics into a more desirable position before Selection Sunday.
The bottom line is that this is a shame and one of the worst parts of college basketball. Last year’s Indiana State team was truly special and was picked apart in the Transfer Portal last offseason. Could the same happen to these Bulldogs whether or not they get their shot in the Big Dance? Luckily, Drake still has time and a great chance to win the conference tournament, but if they falter in St. Louis, you shouldn’t expect to hear their name called on Selection Sunday… and it really sucks for mid-major basketball as a whole.