Every college basketball fan is going to be filling out a bracket in just a little over 20 days, and that means we are all going to overanalyze every matchup and figure out which mid-major schools can pull off the upset over a power 5 school. This year is one of the weirdest years in college basketball in a long time. There are many teams with 25-27 wins who will be top-4 seeds in the NCAA Tournament. A team with zero quad 1 wins can make the field, especially since all of the bubble teams keep losing.
Well, then, what about all the other teams that aren't in the power 5 ranks? There are going to be upsets, and teams from the mid-major ranks are going to be favored to win their first-round game. So while a 16 probably won’t beat a 1, there will still be plenty of upsets by mid-major schools. Here are the five teams to watch out for in March. Gonzaga is the obvious answer, but for this exercise, we are going to look at five other teams that can make a deep run.
Saint Louis Billikens
The Billikens are currently the leaders in the Atlantic 10 conference. Given that they just lost their second game of the year and the sheer dominance they are exhibiting in the Atlantic 10, they are the best team the league has seen since Dayton in the 2020 season. At this point, it would be a huge surprise if they didn’t make the NCAA Tournament, and they will be wearing a home jersey in the first round. Saint Louis projects as a six seed in the NCAA Tournament, which shows they are well above the cut line for the field of 68.
The current 24th-ranked team in KenPom, which ranks in the top 50 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, offers a small glimpse of how dominant Saint Louis has been this year. A deeper dive into the numbers shows you just how potent the Billikens truly are on both sides of the ball.
Head coach Josh Schertz has a myriad of stars led by Robbie Avila. Saint Louis scores 90 points per game, shoots over 40% from deep, 60% from inside the arc, and hauls in the most defensive rebounds in the country. Saint Louis will put pressure on almost every Power Five team in the country with their pace of play and the ability to make shots.
Saint Louis currently allows only 68 points per game. Teams that like to shoot threes won't match up well with the Billikens. Saint Louis makes a point of defending the three-point line, and with their ability to rebound, they will make sure their opponents go one-and-done. The athleticism allows them to recover and shut off driving lanes. It can be painful to score on Saint Louis at times, and they currently lead the country in Field Goal percentage allowed. I know some of these teams get into the tournament and get blown out, but I can promise you Saint Louis is going to give a power conference team all they want.
Miami Ohio Redhawks
The Redhawks are an interesting team given that they are the last remaining undefeated team at 27-0, have one of the best offenses in the country, but one of the worst defenses. The one huge question mark that could rear its ugly head in the first couple of rounds in the tournament is that the Redhawks have one of the worst Strength of Schedules in the country. That has led to Miami having zero quad 1 wins and has made the margin of error for an at-large bid virtually zero. The Redhawks are too good on offense for anyone in the MAC to keep up with them. The Redhawks run the most efficient offense in the country, shooting 54% from the floor, 64% from inside the three-point arc, and over 40% from deep. Those numbers are going to put fear into any Power Five opponent, especially when all five starters shoot over 40% from deep. That makes them very hard to guard.
The defense isn’t nearly good enough for Miami to reasonably make a deep run, or at least it usually isn’t. Miami is different, though, because they know they have to get into shootouts to win games, and with their offensive prowess and ability to shoot, those games will always favor Miami.
If the Redhawks can play even a bit of defense, they will win a game and make a run. The Redhawks can stretch a lead to double digits quickly, and given that they are currently undefeated, they have all the confidence in the world. Miami is not as likely to make a deep run, though, given that the Redhawks will likely be a double-digit seed, but the upset potential in the first round is high.
Utah State Aggies
The Aggies have proven that it doesn’t matter who the coach is or who the personnel is, because Utah State is always going to be a team that can beat a power conference school. There is a reason why Utah State has so much trouble scheduling Power Five schools every season. The Aggies are another one of those teams that isn’t a lock to make the tournament yet, but all of that should take care of itself over the next couple of weeks.
The Aggies, like every team on this list, run an elite offense and shoot the ball extremely well from deep. They have elite guards who account for most of the scoring. I will gladly debate anyone on the matter, but Utah State may have the two best guards in the tournament, and we have all seen that guard play can be a huge catalyst to making a deep run in March.
Utah State is on a path to its best season ever, and as a result, should get its highest seed ever. The previous high seed was an 8, and right now the Aggies find themselves on the 7 seed line per the bracket matrix. Home uniforms will be worn, but it's the second-round game that has people worried. There isn’t a single 2 seed in the country that wants to face a team that shoots 60% from two, 40% from deep, and has guards who can change a game. Utah State is the one team that can make a deep run from the low single-digit seed lines. They have a team that can beat many of the higher-seeded teams.
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
There is a good chance many of you have not watched Hawaii play yet, given the time zone they play in, but they are no joke and can absolutely put a scare into a power-five team. Head coach Eran Ganot has been building something at Hawaii for a few years, but since the Big West is a one-bid league without the conference tournament title, there is no NCAA Tournament appearance.
Hawaii is a different team than just about everyone on this list because the offense doesn’t do anything flashy, the Rainbow Warriors don’t shoot the ball well, and they aren’t overly efficient. However, they are elite at getting to the line and have two big men who are extremely efficient. Hawaii loves to play inside out, so their athletic big men who can get opponent big men in foul trouble are how they win a lot of games.
The defense is among the best in the country. It starts by allowingthe fewest assists in the country. Hawaii jumps in the passing lanes, forces a ton of turnovers, which get them out in transition. Shooting threes and wide-open ones are almost impossible against this defense, and they will force contested two-point shots. The defense is frustrating and can break the will of a team that usually gets open looks. Teams that shoot a lot of threes, beware, because Hawaii doesn't give an inch on that side of the ball.
Yale Bulldogs
Rinse and repeat for Yale being on this list; they have beaten top-seeded teams, will probably do so again, and want redemption for getting blasted by Alabama earlier this season. The Bulldogs don’t want that to be their last showing against a power-five team all year. Much like Hawaii, the Bulldogs have to win the Ivy League Tournament for the automatic bid into the NCAA Tournament, but when the brackets get revealed, the higher-seeded team is going to be in for a game.
Yale leads the country, yes, the country in three-point shooting. Yale doesn’t shoot a ton of threes, but they make over 40% of the ones they take. Suppose Yale isn’t taking threes, never fear, because they are extremely efficient from inside the three-point arc as well. The ball moves, the shot selection is elite, and Yale doesn’t turn the ball over. All of those things lead to upsets. We have all seen it in the tournament far too many times.
Those stats are all great, but the bottom line is the Bulldogs are going to play harder than the other team and never panic. Head coach James Jones has his team believing they are never out of a game, and given some of the comebacks Yale has made in the NCAA Tournament to win games, that fact isn’t lost on any of the coaches. Yale can make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament and beat some power schools, but they will have to play a lot better than they did against Alabama.