After three straight trips to at least the Sweet Sixteen right before and during the pandemic, Florida State basketball has fallen back out of the national spotlight. New head coach Luke Loucks is trying to change that perception since his returning to his alma mater last season. Loucks played on some talented Seminoles teams, including during a Sweet Sixteen run back in 2011, and is now trying to create that same magic from the coach’s box.
His first effort in Tallahassee was solid, with this program coming off an 18-15 record while tying for 7th place in a better ACC race. However, Loucks is still hoping to get the Seminoles back into the Big Dance for the first time since that most recent postseason run in 2021. The expanded NCAA Tournament field certainly helps matters, but they’re eyeing a more comfortable and secure place in the field.
Big time changes in Tallahassee
With that being said, Florida State’s roster was a very fluid situation this past offseason, with a majority of last season’s talent not back again. Lajae Jones found his way into the NBA Draft while top scorers Robert McCray and Chauncey Wiggins are out of eligibility. Throw in a few outgoing transfers and some other departures and it’s almost an empty cupboard in Tallahassee.
However, excitement exists largely because of what this coaching staff has brought into the fold, combining both a very solid transfer class with a slew of intriguing freshmen. Nearly every name we’ll mention below on this roster is new to Florida State but that doesn’t mean this can’t become a cohesive unit that can compete for that postseason glory.
Projected Starters
Guard – Anthony Robinson II (Senior)
Florida State’s new point guard has SEC experience, as Robinson spent the last three years in Missouri’s backcourt. He’s a Tallahassee native who did his best work as a sophomore, earning All-Defense honors as a starter that year. Last year was no slouch, putting up 8.9 points, 3.0 assists, and 1.6 steals a game but Robinson should be given the keys to run this offense while continuing to make big plays on defense.
Guard – Kameron Taylor (Junior)
An impressive scorer originally from Charlotte, Taylor joins the Seminoles after spending his first two collegiate campaigns at UNC Asheville. Taylor exploded into a scoring threat this past year, averaging 18.9 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 3.0 assists to lead the Big South in scoring average. Whether or not Florida State gets that type of explosiveness, they like what they’ve seen in Taylor with his athleticism, though his long-range game struggled last season.
Forward – Shon Abaev (Sophomore)
A disappointing freshman campaign at Cincinnati doesn’t stop what Abaev could become in his career. An impressive 6-8 wing from Miami, he was a Top 25 recruit and is lauded for his spacing and scoring ability. With the Bearcats, Abaev put up just 7.0 points and 2.9 rebounds per game but has a chance to really impact things this season in this new system.
Forward – Sebastian Rancik (Junior)
A 6-9 forward originally from Slovakia, Rancik enters the fold after spending a pair of seasons in the Big 12 with Colorado. He started a handful of games across his early career, averaging 12.3 points and 5.6 rebounds as a major piece of the Buffaloes’ puzzle last season. Rancik does solid work all over the court with playmaking ability and can be a big part of the interior scoring and rebounding equation right here.
Center – Marcis Ponder (Freshman)
The best piece of an impressive freshman class, Ponder is a 6-10 center with incredible size and strength who just might be stepping into a massive role right off the jump. He finishes around the rim and imposes his will on defense, though he’ll have to be careful to avoid foul trouble as he hopes to become an above average shot blocker.
Key Reserves
Guard – Martay Barnes (Freshman)
Another Top 100 recruit from this freshman class, Barnes is a 6-2 combo guard who looks the part of both a collected point guard and versatile scorer. He’s more known for his mid-range ability and is still working on his outside shot, though you’ll also see his potential facilitating the offense and there’ll be plenty of chances for him as a first-year player.
Forward – Collin Paul (Freshman)
Paul is a 3-star wing from West Palm Beach and was actually a high school teammate of Abaev a few seasons ago. He’s an impressively intelligent player for his size, with the physicality to affect the game on multiple levels. Florida State hopes that his outside shooting ability off the bench really helps them win some of these games, though he's dealt with some injury concerns this past year.
Guard – Elisee Assui (Freshman)
A 6-5 shooting guard from Italy, Assui is yet another of the intriguing freshmen entering the fold for the Seminoles. His size is the first thing that stands out about him and he’s known far more for the intensity he brings on defense. He’s strong and really affects the game even away from the ball, with plenty of potential on offense in the years ahead.
Forward – AJ Swinton (Junior)
An actual returning player for the Seminoles from last season, Swinton actually enters his third season with Florida State. He’s carved out a role off the bench, averaging 4.5 points and 1.8 rebounds per game in that role last year. Unfortunately, he suffered an ACL injury late in the season and his availability will be in question this season; though many are hoping we’ll see him at some point.
Guard – Brandon Bass Jr. (Freshman)
Bass is a 4-star lefty shooting guard from Orlando whose potential as an outside shooter and facilitator has this staff excited. His 3-point numbers at the high school lever were fantastic and his size and wingspan can’t be ignored either. Bass is a great athlete, has impressive scoring potential, and he is the son of a former SEC legend and longtime NBA forward.
Forward – Cooper Schwieger (Senior)
Now a senior, Schwieger is hoping for a bounce back season to get his career back on track. The 6-9 forward from Kansas spent his first two years at Valparaiso and was the MVC’s top rebounder and shot blocker as a sophomore. His first experience in the ACC came last year with Wake Forest, putting up just 5.1 points and 2.5 rebounds per game in a diminished role, though we’ll see how much run he gets with these Seminoles.
Schedule Outlook
The Orion180 Tip-Off Classic begins Florida State’s season on November 2nd, though they should be able to handle Florida A&M in Tampa. They’re back in Tallahassee for the next six games, but that includes a highly-anticipated November 10th battle with rival Florida. November ends on a neutral-site again, facing West Florida in Pensacola in the Battle at the Bay.
December is far more challenging, starting at Tennessee as part of the ACC/SEC Challenge on the first of the month. After hosting a resilient Dayton squad, the Seminoles then battle Texas A&M in the Houston Hoopfest. On December 20th, the final real challenge in nonconference play sees them take on Houston in Jacksonville, with ACC play beginning right after Christmas.
The ACC schedule is unbalanced and features some winnable games early, though Florida State does have to play at the California schools in early January. They have home-and-homes with Clemson and Miami and don’t see SMU at all, though their only games against Duke and Virginia come at home in the back half of February as part of a really tough stretch to finish the season.
Season Outlook
In a manner of speaking, how much you buy into the hype will go a long way to how you feel about Florida State for this upcoming season. This is a roster that returns almost nothing from last season, though Loucks and his staff really found some gems in this recruiting class. A successful year might be one that leans very heavily on some of those young players developing quickly right before our eyes.
First and foremost, the Seminoles landed some very impressive talent from the transfer portal. Taylor is an impressive scorer while Robinson has shown himself more than capable as a playmaker and facilitator. Beyond that, Abaev has incredible potential after a dull start at Cincinnati while freshmen pieces like Barnes and Bass won’t exactly be ignored on the bench.
The floor and ceiling for this team may depend heavily on how that frontcourt comes together. Both Rancik and Schwieger can have game-changing moments and have power conference experience, but Florida State really needs Ponder playing at a high level even as a freshman. With Swinton’s condition uncertain and a lot of young players, there isn’t a ton of depth here if things go awry.
With great guard play and potential from those young pieces, Florida State can absolutely be back in the top half of the ACC standings and break a half-decade NCAA Tournament drought. They have some tough challenges early, though a league schedule that allows them to get off to a hot start. We’ll just have to see if Loucks and his staff can get the best out of these new additions by the time February hits and things get much harder.
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