The NBA Draft kicks off tonight, and many former college basketball players will hear their name called and receive a multi-year contract with a significant signing bonus. But in the age of NIL, the determination of whether it’s worth leaving college to enter the draft is a bit more complicated.
The NCAA to NBA pipeline has changed rapidly over the last few decades. The traditional, typical journey included playing multiple years in college before entering the NBA Draft (aside from high school phenoms like LeBron James and Kobe Bryant). But as high school basketball improved, college basketball was introduced to the “1-and-done” freshmen.
As the discussion over whether colleges were exploiting athletes intensified, “developmental leagues” such as Overtime Elite and G League Ignite were born. Both leagues were able to recruit top talent in recent years, including Jalen Green, Dyson Daniels, Ron Holland, Scoot Henderson, Alex Sarr, and Rob Dillingham (pre-Kentucky).
And then the landscape changed even more drastically: the NIL era began. College players could now profit off of their name, image, and likeness, which effectively ended the G League Ignite and diminished Overtime Elite.
The “1-and-done” culture is still prevalent for the freshmen who are guaranteed lottery picks, but we’ve started to see more and more stud freshmen opt to stay in college for another year. Auburn’s Tahaad Pettiford opted to return despite getting 1st round NBA Draft looks, while Boogie Fland opted to transfer to Florida instead of taking his chances with the draft.
Fland’s compensation was reportedly worth over $2 million, which makes it quite comparable to expected NBA draft compensation for the back of the 1st round. After Pick 24, all annual salaries are below $3 million.
All this being said, let’s take a look at a few NBA prospects who could have benefitted from another year in college. Based on the latest nbadraft.net Mock Draft, here are a few players who had remaining college eligibility:
- Drake Powell: Freshman, North Carolina (projected #27)
- Danny Wolf: Junior, Michigan (projected #31)
- RJ Luis: Junior, St. John’s (projected #47)
All three of these guys left top college programs, all of which have reloaded for this upcoming season. Per 247 Sports, St John’s and Michigan have the top 2 ranked transfer class hauls in the nation, while UNC has the 7th best overall class (HS recruits + transfers).
If Powell, Wolf, or Luis returned to their respective programs, they would arguably become the favorites to cut down the nets next March. And more importantly, all three universities would’ve had the NIL funds to compensate them handsomely.